>> GOOD AFTERNOON.
TODAY IS MARCH 4 AND THE TIME
IS 12:34.
THIS IS THE MEETING OF THE CITY
OF SEATTLE'S NEW ECONOMIC AND
FORECAST COUNCIL.
THIS MEETING WILL COME TO
ORDER.
AGAIN, GOOD AFTERNOON.
MY NAME IS BEN NOBLE AND I AM
RECENTLY APPOINTED DIRECTOR OF
THE NEW OFFICE OF ECONOMIC AND
REVENUE FORECAST WHICH SERVES
IN SUPPORT OF THE FORECAST
COUNCIL.
WE ARE JOINED TODAY BY OR WILL
BE SOON JOINED BY THE FOURTH
MEMBER.
WE ARE JOINED BY THREE MEMBERS
OF THE FORECAST COUNCIL AND
THAT INCLUDES DEBORA JUAREZ,
CITY COUNCIL BUDGET SHARE
TERESA MOSQUEDA, SENIOR DEPUTY
MAYOR MONISHA HARRELL AND
SHORTLY WE WILL BE JOINED BY
CITY'S FINANCE DIRECTOR GLEN
LEE.
AS I NOTED, THIS IS THE FIRST
MEETING OF THIS GROUP.
TODAY THE FORECAST COUNCIL WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH LOGISTICAL
ISSUES, JUST SETTING UP BASIC
GOVERNANCE AND THEN MOVE ONTO A
COUPLE BRIEFINGS AND ADOPTION
IDEALLY OF THE FORECAST OFFICE
WORK PROGRAM.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SELECTION
OF A CHAIR AND POTENTIALLY A
VICE CHAIR.
UNTIL THE CHAIR IS SELECTED, I
AM GOING TO ESSENTIALLY EMCEE
THE MEETING AND COORDINATE THE
ACTIONS.
THE FIRST ACTION WE NEED IS TO
ADOPT TODAY'S AGENDA.
I AM GOING TO SHARE MY SCREEN
AND PUT UP THAT AGENDA.
EXCUSE ME, SHARING MY SCREEN.
HERE IS THE AGENDA.
IF ONE OF THE FORECAST MEMBERS
WOULD MOVE AND POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER SECOND, WE CAN PUT THE
AGENDA INTO PLAY.
>> DR. NOBLE, I MOVE TO HAVE
THE FORECAST COUNCIL ADOPT THE
AGENDA AS PRESENTED.
>> IS THERE A SECOND?
>> SECOND.
>> THANK YOU.
THIS WILL BE THE TIME -- LET ME
DESCRIBE, INTRODUCTORY
COMMENTS, DISCUSSION OF BY-
LAWS.
I WILL PRESENT AND IDEALLY YOU
WILL ADOPT THE WORK PROGRAM FOR
2022 FOR THE FORECAST OFFICE.
THEN FINALLY WE HAVE A
PRESENTATION DESCRIBING WHERE
OUR CITY'S REVENUE FINISHED IN
2021 AND COMPARING THOSE TO OUR
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS LEVELS.
ARE THERE ANY POTENTIAL
AMENDMENTS TO THIS AGENDA?
HEARING NONE, IF THERE ARE NO
OBJECTIONS, TODAY'S AGENDA WILL
BE ADOPTED.
HEARING NO OBJECTIONS, THE
AGENDA IS ADOPTED.
I WILL STOP SHARING MY SCREEN
AND MOVE ON.
THE FIRST ITEM IS INTRODUCTORY
COMMENTS.
I AM GOING TO TURN THIS TO
CENTRAL STAFF ACTING DIRECTOR
IN A MOMENT.
I WANTED TO SAY A COUPLE THINGS
IN PARTICULAR.
I WANTED TO INTRODUCE MY
COLLEAGUE JAN DURA.
HE AND I ARE CURRENTLY THE
FORECAST OFFICE, THE TWO OF US.
SMALL BUT MIGHTY I LIKE TO
THINK.
AS I DISCUSSED, THERE IS A
THIRD PERSON WE WILL HIRE IN
THE COMING MONTHS.
LET ME TURN OVER FOR SOME
COMMENTS AND EVENTUALLY THE
FORECAST MEMBERS AS WELL.
>> THANK YOU.
GOOD AFTERNOON MEMBERS OF THE
FORECAST COUNCIL.
I AM JUST GOING TO PROVIDE A
VERY BRIEF BACKGROUND ON HOW
THIS FORECAST COUNCIL AND THE
OFFICE CAME TO BE AND THEN
WE'LL TURN IT BACK TO DIRECTOR
NOBLE.
JUST A LITTLE HISTORY.
JULY 19, 2021, COUNCIL
UNANIMOUSLY PASSED ORDINANCE
126395 ESTABLISHING THIS OFFICE
OF ECONOMIC AND REVENUE
FORECAST THAT IS INDEPENDENT OF
THE EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE
BRANCHES OF CITY GOVERNMENT.
ENABLING LEGISLATION DEVELOPED
AFTER MANY MONTHS OF WORKING
WITH SUBJECT MATTER EXPERTS IN
THE CITY BUDGET OFFICE,
DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE,
ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES AND
CENTRAL STAFF, LEGISLATION
CREATED THIS BODY, THE FORECAST
COUNCIL, ESTABLISHED PROCESS
FOR APPROVAL OF THE CITY'S
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
ESTABLISHED DUTIES AND
FUNCTIONS OF THE NEW FORECAST
OFFICE.
THE BY-LAWS THAT WILL BE BEFORE
YOU TODAY ARE IN LINE WITH THE
ENABLING LEGISLATION AND
INTENT, POLICY INTENT THAT THE
COUNCIL DISCUSSED WHEN CREATING
THIS NEW OFFICE.
THE GOAL OF CREATING THIS NEW
OFFICE WAS REALLY TO INCREASE
TRANSPARENCY IN THE FORECASTING
PROCESS AND CREATE A LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD BETWEEN BOTH
BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT.
THIS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY TO
ENHANCE SOME OF THE CITY'S WORK
RELATED FORECASTS AND OTHER
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS WHICH YOU
WILL SEE SOME OF TODAY IN A
MORE DETAILED REPORT ON THE
YEAR END ACTUAL COMPARISON TO
THE 2021 FORECAST.
IT CREATES CONSISTENCY WITH
SOME OTHER LOCAL GOVERNMENT
ENTITIES SUCH AS KING COUNTY
AND STATE OF WASHINGTON THAT
BOTH HAVE INDEPENDENT OFFICES
WHO DEVELOP THEIR FORECASTS.
THEN OVERALL, THIS JUST ENSURES
BOTH BRANCHES ARE WORKING FROM
A COMMON STARTING PLACE AND IN
LINE WITH THE CITY'S RACE AND
SOCIAL JUSTICE INITIATIVE.
THERE IS AN EMPHASIS ON
PROVIDING GREATER TRANSPARENCY
AND ACCESS TO INFORMATION
REGARDING THE BUDGET DECISIONS.
THIS IS ONE STEP TOWARDS
PROVIDING GREATER TRANSPARENCY
AS TO HOW FORECASTS ARE
DEVELOPED AND WHAT IT MEANS AS
MAYOR AND COUNCIL MAKE
DECISIONS ABOUT HOW TO ALLOCATE
CITY RESOURCES.
WITH THAT, UNLESS THERE ARE
QUESTIONS, I WILL TURN IT BACK
TO DIRECTOR NOBLE.
>> THANK YOU.
ANY INTRODUCTORY COMMENTS FROM
MEMBERS OF THE FORECAST
COUNCIL?
SEEING NONE -- OH I APOLOGIZE.
COUNCILMEMBER MOSQUEDA.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH AND
WELCOME TO YOU AND YOUR TEAM.
VERY EXCITED ABOUT THE CREATION
OF THIS INDEPENDENT CITY
FORECAST OFFICE.
I AM EXCITED I WAS ABLE TO HAVE
A ROLE ALONG WITH COUNCIL
PRESIDENT JUAREZ WHO IS ON THE
COUNCIL WITH US ON BEHALF OF
THE CITY COUNCIL AND I ALSO AM
REALLY THANKFUL FOR THE WORK
YOU HAVE DONE, MR -- I WAS
GOING TO SAY CHAIR, OUR HOST,
DIRECTOR NOBLE.
THANK YOU FOR THE WORK YOU HAVE
DONE IN THE PAST.
I AM EXCITED TO PARTICIPATE IN
THIS FORUM AND COUNCIL WITH THE
EXECUTIVE AND SENIOR DEPUTY
MAYOR ALONG WITH OUR NEW
DIRECTOR OF THE CITY BUDGET
OFFICE.
IT'S BEEN A PLEASURE TO BE ABLE
TO WORK WITH THE TWO OF YOU
ALREADY IN OUR SHORT TIME THIS
YEAR IN 2022.
I AM THRILLED THAT WE WILL BE
ABLE TO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
JOINTLY PARTNER WITH THE
SEPARATE BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT
THROUGH THIS COUNCIL AND THE
INDEPENDENT OFFICE OF THE
CITY'S FINANCE AND REVENUE
DEPARTMENT.
I JUST WANT TO THANK COUNCIL
PRESIDENT GONZALEZ FROM THE
PAST AND HER STAFF MEMBER WHO
WERE HELPFUL WORKING WITH OUR
CENTRAL STAFF AND WHO YOU HEARD
FROM AS WELL, THE INTERIM
DIRECTOR, THROUGHOUT LAST YEAR
AS WE CREATED THIS INDEPENDENT
COUNCIL.
THANK YOU FOR HELPING GET THIS
NEW OFFICE OFF THE GROUND ALONG
WITH YOUR TEAM DIRECTOR NOBLE.
THANKS AGAIN FOR ALL THE WORK
YOU HAVE PUT INTO THIS EFFORT.
I LOOK FORWARD TO THE NEWS
TODAY AND THEN QUARTERLY
THROUGHOUT THIS YEAR.
I THINK IT WILL BE A GREAT
ASSET TO OUR CITY AND TO THE
RESIDENTS.
>> THANK YOU FOR THE KIND
WORDS.
I AM VERY MUCH LOOKING FORWARD
AND HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE NEW
ROLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE
MONTHS.
NOT SEEING OTHERS LOOKING TO
COMMENT, I WILL MOVE ONTO WALK
YOU THROUGH THE BY LAWS.
WHAT YOU WILL SEE WILL BE MORE
APPARENT, IT WILL MAKE SENSE, I
WILL WALK THROUGH BY-LAWS AND
COUNCIL THEN, PROBABLY MAKES
SENSE FOR YOU TO APPOINT A
CHAIR TO ADOPT BY-LAWS AND TO
APPOINT IF YOU ARE INTERESTED A
VICE CHAIR.
THE APPOINTMENT OF THE CHAIR IS
SET OUT IN THE ORDINANCE.
IT DOESN'T ONLY COME FROM THE
BY-LAWS SO IT MAKES SENSE TO
APPOINT THE CHAIR AND THEN DO
BY-LAWS.
HAVING DESCRIBED THAT PROCESS
LET ME PUT UP THE BY-LAWS AND
WALK YOU THROUGH.
WE HAVE WORKED -- HERE ARE THE
PROPOSED BY-LAWS.
THESE WERE DRAFTED IN
CONSULTATION.
>> I WANT TO DOUBLE CHECK FOR
THE VIEWING PUBLIC, I DON'T SEE
A SCREEN BEING SHARED.
PERHAPS IT IS SHARED ON SEATTLE
CHANNEL.
I JUST WANTED TO CHECK IF
THAT'S SOMETHING YOU WANTED TO
PROJECT.
>> I DON'T SEE IT EITHER AND
DIDN'T SAY ANYTHING THINKING IT
MIGHT BE A BROADCAST TRICK.
>> I PRINTED IT OUT OLD SCHOOL.
>> LET ME TRY A DIFFERENT WAY.
HOW ABOUT THAT?
>> THAT IS GOOD.
>> LIVE AND LEARN.
HERE ARE THE PROPOSED BY-LAWS
AGAIN DEVELOPED IN CONSULTATION
WITH CENTRAL STAFF, EXECUTIVE,
THE LAW DEPARTMENT.
THEY'RE REALLY QUITE SIMPLE.
THE ORDINANCE SET OUT A GREAT
DEAL BUT THERE WERE THOUGHTS WE
THOUGHT WERE WORTH CLARIFYING.
I HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A COUPLE
POINTS.
FIRST THESE SET OUT THE PURPOSE
AND I THOUGHT ACTUALLY THE
DIRECTOR DID A GOOD JOB
DESCRIBING IT.
THE FORECAST COUNCIL PROVIDES
AN INDEPENDENT SOURCE OF THE
FORECASTS AND YOU ARE
ESSENTIALLY OVERSEEING WORK OF
THE FORECAST OFFICE.
THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE FORECAST
COUNCIL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN
THE ORDINANCE.
IT IS THE MAYOR OR HIS OR HER
DESIGNEES.
IN HIS CASE SENIOR DEPUTY
MAYOR MONISHA HARRELL, DIRECTOR
OF FINANCE GLEN LEE.
I RECEIVED A TEXT THAT GLEN IS
ON THE LINE AND LISTENING.
COUNCIL PRESIDENT OR HER
DESIGNEE.
OBVIOUSLY COUNCILMEMBER
MOSQUEDA IS PRESENT.
SUGGESTED YOU MIGHT WANT TO
HAVE A VICE CHAIR AS WELL.
IT IS SOMEONE WHO CAN RUN
MEETINGS IF THE CHAIR IS NOT
AVAILABLE.
THAT IS IN ADDITION TO BY-LAWS.
IT WAS NOT IN THE ORDINANCE.
THIS NEXT SECTION, THIS IS ALSO
NOT IN THE ORDINANCE BUT WHAT
IT CALLS OUT IS IF THERE ARE
GOING TO BE DESIGNEES
IDENTIFIED, THAT DONE AT LEAST
24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE
MEETING.
SENIOR DEPUTY MAYOR HARRELL'S
ROLE WAS SO COMMUNICATED.
THE NOTION IS THERE ISN'T A
LAST MINUTE SWITCH.
IT WAS REALLY A CLARIFICATION
AND TRANSPARENCY ELEMENT.
THE QUORUM REQUIREMENTS ARE
LARGELY SET OUT BY STATE LAW SO
THE FORECAST COUNCIL IS SUBJECT
TO THE OPEN PUBLIC MEETINGS
ACT.
YOU NEED A MAJORITY OF MEMBERS
FOR THERE TO BE A QUORUM.
IN THIS CASE THAT IS THREE.
YOU COULD INCREASE THE
REQUIREMENT BUT AS YOU WILL
SEE, I DON'T THINK IT IS
NECESSARY.
THERE WAS CONCERN ABOUT
MAINTAINING BALANCE BETWEEN
EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE
BRANCHES.
AS YOU WILL SEE FOR KEY
DECISIONS THERE WAS A NEED FOR
THREE VOTES SO THAT THERE IS
ALWAYS A REQUIREMENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT PARTICIPATION.
AGAIN, THREE MEMBERS REQUIRED.
MEETING, BY-LAWS ARE CLARIFYING
THERE WILL BE FOUR REGULAR
MEETINGS AND REGULAR MEETING IS
A TERM UNDER OUR OPEN PUBLIC
MEETING ACT.
YOU CAN HAVE ADDITIONAL
MEETINGS, NOTICE REQUIREMENTS
ON SPECIAL MEETINGS ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AND NOT
WORTH A LOT OF DISCUSSION.
WE ARE ANTICIPAING FOUR
MEETINGS ESSENTIALLY ONE EACH
QUARTER.
I WILL SHOW THIS IN THE WORK
PROGRAM.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE IN
JANUARY OR MAYBE EARLY
FEBRUARY.
THE MEETINGS LATER IN TODAY'S
DISCUSSIONS, I WILL SHOW YOU
FULL CALENDAR FOR MEETINGS.
THERE WAS MEETING, EXECUTIVE
SESSIONS, FORECAST COUNCIL
SUBJECT TO OPEN PUBLIC MEETINGS
ACT.
THERE ARE CRITERIA UNDER WHICH
-- MEMBER OF THE CITY ATTORNEYS
OFFICE CAN BE AVAILABLE TO SIT
IN AGAIN.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PROTOCOLS FOR CITY COUNCIL
AROUND OPEN PUBLIC MEETINGS.
DECISION MAKING, I WANTED TO
HIGHLIGHT THE ORDINANCE ITSELF
SPECIFIES A MAJORITY OF THREE
MEMBERS ARE NEEDED FOR
IMPORTANT VOTES.
TO FOLLOW THE LOGIC, THAT IS AN
IMPORTANT DISTINCTION.
THREE MEMBERS CONSTITUTE A
QUORUM BUT A MAJORITY OF THAT
QUORUM, TWO VOTES, WOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO DO SEVERAL THINGS
CALLED OUT HERE.
IT'S GOING TO REQUIRE THREE
VOTES TO DO A BIG THING.
PERHAPS INTERESTINGLY ONE THING
THAT DOESN'T NECESSARILY
REQUIRE A VOTE IS ACTUALLY
ADOPTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE WAY THE ORDINANCE IS
STRUCTURED THE FORECAST OFFICE
WILL PROVIDE A RECOMMENDATION
WITH REGARD TO THE FORECAST AS
DESCRIBED HERE. IF THERE ARE
DISAGREEMENTS ABOUT THE
RECOMMENDATION, YOU MAY VOTE
AND ESSENTIALLY IF YOU WILL
OVERRIDE.
IT WILL TAKE THREE VOTES TO DO
THAT.
THIS IS A WAY TO TRY TO
MAINTAIN THIS BALANCE AND TO
HAVE A NEUTRAL AND INDEPENDENT
SOURCE FOR THE FORECAST.
THE ONE PIECE THAT WE DID ON
ADVICE OF LAW IS IT LIKELY
MEANS YOU WON'T REGULARLY VOTE
BECAUSE WE WILL BRING
RECOMMENDATION AND IF THINGS GO
WELL, YOU WILL CONCUR WITH THE
RECOMMENDATION.
THERE IS NO NEED TO VOTE THEN.
WHAT WE WILL REQUEST THEN IS
THAT CHAIR NOTE IN THE MEETING
MINUTES THAT YOU HAVE ASCENTED
IF YOU WILL TO THAT FORECAST.
A LITTLE BIT MORE DETAIL THERE
BUT JUST SO THAT YOU
UNDERSTAND.
AS I NOTED, THE ORDINANCE
ITSELF SPECIFIES THAT YOU NEED
A THREE PERSON MAJORITY TO
APPOINT THE DIRECTOR.
THERE WAS SUCH A VOTE IN LATE
DECEMBER.
THEN THE WORK PROGRAM WHICH IS
UP TO DATE WILL ALSO REQUIRE A
THREE PERSON VOTE.
OTHER THAN THAT AGAIN AS
SPECIFIED HERE YOU CAN HAVE TWO
AFFIRMATIVE VOTES FOR OTHER
OFFICIAL ACTIONS.
I JUST DON'T THINK THERE ARE
OTHERS AT THIS STAGE.
BY-LAWS CAN BE AMENDED IF
NECESSARY.
THE LAST COMPONENT OF THE BY-
LAWS IS TO CLARIFY.
IT WILL BE HELPFUL FOR YOU TO
CLARIFY WHAT WE IN THE FORECAST
OFFICE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SHARING, TRANSPARENCY BEING AN
IMPORTANT GOAL OF THE FORECAST,
EXCUSE ME, COUNCIL IN THE
FORECAST OFFICE.
ALL MEETING MATERIALS WILL BE
POSTED.
THEY HAVE BEEN.
ALL THE FORECASTS, ECONOMIC
FORECAST AND REVENUE FORECAST.
I WILL TALK ABOUT THE
DISTINCTION.
THOSE WILL GO UP.
QUARTERLY REPORTS.
WE WILL GIVE A PRESENTATION
TODAY AND FOLLOW UP IN THE NEXT
WEEK OR TWO WITH A WRITTEN
REPORT THAT WILL DESCRIBE IN
MORE DETAIL SOME OF THAT.
ANY OTHER WORK THAT WE DO THAT
IS PRESENTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST COUNCIL.
THOSE ARE THE BY-LAWS.
I WILL STOP SHARING BECAUSE
IT'S HARD FOR ME TO SEE YOU
THIS WAY.
AS I INDICATED, I THINK THE
BEST WAY FOR YOU TO PROCEED
BEFORE YOU WOULD TAKE ON THE BY-
LAWS THEMSELVES IS TO SELECT A
CHAIR.
AS YOU CONCUR, IT WOULD BE THE
APPROPRIATE TIME FOR THERE TO
BE A NOMINATION FROM THE FLOOR
FOR CHAIR OF THE FORECAST
COUNCIL.
>> I WOULD LIKE TO MAKE A
NOMINATION.
I MOVE TO NOMINATE
COUNCILMEMBER TERESA MOSQUEDA
TO SERVE AS CHAIR OF THE
FORECAST COUNCIL.
LET ME KNOW IF THIS IS THE
APPROPRIATE TIME TO GIVE MY
THOUGHTS.
CAN I GIVE MY THOUGHTS?
>> MIGHT NEED A SECOND AND THEN
I WILL COME BACK TO YOU FOR
YOUR THOUGHTS.
>> I AM TRYING TO JOIN YOUR
PROCEDURAL LEARN.
I AM GOING TO LEARN COUNCIL
PRESIDENT.
YOU TELL ME WHEN I JUMP IN.
>> WE NEED A SECOND.
THAT IS MY SECOND ONLY.
>> SECOND.
SECOND.
>> A NOMINATION IS MADE AND A
SECOND IS ON THE FLOOR.
I THINK IT WOULD BE APPROPRIATE
FOR SENIOR DEPUTY MAYOR HARRELL
TO SPEAK.
>> THANK YOU.
I AM GOING TO LEARN.
YOU ARE GOING TO GET IT.
I JUST WANT TO SAY IT HAS BEEN
A REAL PLEASURE WORKING WITH
COUNCILMEMBER MOSQUEDA IN AND
AROUND BUDGET ISSUES.
SHE HAS BEEN REALLY OPEN TO
INCLUDING THE NEW
ADMINISTRATION EVEN IN THE
DISCUSSIONS PRIOR TO OUR TAKING
OFFICE.
I LOOK FORWARD TO HER
LEADERSHIP HERE AND THE
COLLABORATIVE RELATIONSHIP WE
HAVE REALLY BUILT TOGETHER.
I THINK THIS IS A GREAT
OPPORTUNITY TO BE ABLE TO SERVE
UNDER HER LEADERSHIP ON THIS
COUNCIL AND I REALLY LOOK
FORWARD TO THE UPCOMING YEAR.
>> ARE THERE ANY OTHER
COMMENTS?
>> THANK YOU FOR THE
NOMINATION.
I WOULD BE HAPPY TO SERVE.
>> SEEING NONE, I THINK IT IS
APPROPRIATE TO CALL FOR THE
VOTE.
I THINK IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE
TO GET GLEN'S VOTE BUT I THINK
THERE ARE POTENTIALLY THREE
VOTES HERE AND THAT'S NOT
NECESSARY.
I WILL CALL COUNCIL PRESIDENT
JUAREZ ON THE NOMINATION.
>> I GOT YOU.
AYES.
>> NOT AS EASY AS IT LOOKS, IS
IT?
>> NEVER THOUGHT IT WAS.
SENIOR DEPUTY MAYOR HARRELL.
>> AYES ALREADY COUNCILMEMBER
MOSQUEDA.
>> AYES.
>> WITH THAT, WE HAVE THREE
AFFIRMATIVE VOTES WHICH IS
SUFFICIENT.
WE NOW HAVE A CHAIR FOR THE
FORECAST COUNCIL.
IT IS MY PLEASURE TO TURN THIS
OVER TO THE CHAIR SO THIS
MEETING CAN BE RUN BY SOMEONE
WHO HAS THE SKILLS BETTER THAN
I. COUNCILMEMBER MOSQUEDA.
FORECAST COUNCIL CHAIR I SHOULD
SAY AS WELL.
VIA TEXT, GLEN AFFIRMS AS WELL.
>> ALL RIGHT.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THE
ANONYMOUS VOTE, COLLEAGUES.
IT'S A PLEASURE TO BE ABLE TO
WORK WITH YOU ON THIS NEWLY
FORMED REVENUE FORECAST
COUNCIL.
I THANK YOU FOR THE VERY KIND
WORDS SENIOR DEPUTY MAYOR
HARRELL.
IT'S WONDERFUL TO HAVE YOUR
SUPPORT AND REALLY APPRECIATE
THE COUNCIL PRESIDENT'S SUPPORT
AS WELL.
IT HAS BEEN A REAL EXCITING
MOMENT TO BE ABLE TO SEE THIS
FORECAST COUNCIL COME TO
FRUITION.
I WANT TO THANK THE FOLKS WHO
MADE THIS POSSIBLE.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH DIRECTOR
NOBLE, JOHN, THE OFFICE, THIS
ROLE, YOUR PREVIOUS ROLE, AND
THE CENTRAL STAFF.
I THINK THIS INDEPENDENT
ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST AND
THIS OVERSIGHT BODY TODAY IS
REALLY GOING TO HELP WITH DEEP
COLLABORATION ACROSS BRANCHES
OF GOVERNMENT AND CREATE
ADDITIONAL TRANSPARENCY FOR THE
PUBLIC AND BROADER POLICY
MAKING AS WE MOVE FORWARD TO
ADDRESS THE CITY'S MOST
PRESSING NEEDS VIA THE BUDGET
AND REVENUE.
I WANT TO THANK STAFF IN MY
OFFICE WHO WAS INSTRUMENTAL
THROUGHOUT THE LAST YEARS TO
PROVE SUPPORT AND THOUGHTS
BEHIND PULLING THIS TOGETHER
ALONG WITH THE INTERIM
DIRECTOR.
WITH THAT, I WOULD LIKE TO
REVISIT THE QUESTION BROUGHT UP
BY DIRECTOR BEN NOBLE ABOUT A
VICE CHAIR.
I VERY MUCH APPRECIATE THAT
SUGGESTION.
WHILE IT WASN'T IN THE INITIAL
ORDINANCE, I THINK IT'S A GREAT
ADDITION TO THE BY-LAWS CRAFTED
IN FRONT OF US.
WE'LL GET A CHANCE TO TALK
ABOUT QUESTIONS FOLKS HAVE
ABOUT THE BY-LAWS.
BEFORE THAT I WOULD BE
INTERESTED IN ADDING A VICE
CHAIR.
IF SHE'S WILLING, I WOULD LIKE
TO NO, MA'AM NAME SENIOR DEPUTY
MAYOR MONISHA HARRELL.
IS THERE A SECOND?
>> SECOND.
>> THANK YOU COUNCIL PRESIDENT.
I WILL BRIEFLY SPEAK TO THE
NOMINATION TODAY.
I SEE A SMILE SO I AM HOPING
THAT MEANS SHE'S WILLING TO
SERVE AS VICE CHAIR.
IT HAS BEEN A PLEASURE TO WORK
WITH SENIOR DEPUTY MAYOR
HARRELL.
WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A NUMBER OF
ISSUES WE HAD TO TACKLE
TOGETHER AND I APPRECIATED HER
LEADERSHIP, HER HARD WORKING
COLLABORATIVE STYLE.
SHE'S AUTHENTIC IN WANTING TO
HAVE DEEP ENGAGEMENT AND
DISCUSSION WITH COUNCIL.
AS WE TACKLE THE CHALLENGES IN
FRONT OF US IN OVER COMING
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID, I
KNOW WE ARE IN GOOD HANDS WITH
HER AND HER TEAM AND LOOK
FORWARD TO WORKING WITH HER IN
THIS ROLE AS WELL ON THE
FORECAST COUNCIL.
I WOULD VERY MUCH LIKE TO
NOMINATE SENIOR DEPUTY MAYOR
MONISHA HARRELL.
ANY ADDITIONAL COMMENTS OR
QUESTIONS?
WONDERFUL.
I AM NOT SEEING ANY.
IF THERE ARE ANY ADDITIONAL
COMMENTS, SPEAK NOW.
HEARING NONE, ALL OF THOSE IN
FAVOR?
I WILL GO WITH ALL THOSE IN
FAVOR APPROACH VERSES CALLING
NAMES IF THAT SOUNDS OKAY.
ALL THOSE IN FAVOR, PLEASE SAY
AYES.
>> AYES.
>> ANY OPPOSED?
ANY ABSTENTIONS.
>> NO, NO.
>> IT IS UNANIMOUS.
WOULD YOU LIKE TO SAY A FEW
WORDS?
>> I WOULD ONLY LIKE TO SAY I
THINK THE CREATION OF THIS
COUNCIL AND CREATION OF THE
FORECASTING BODY WAS REALLY
SMART LEGISLATION.
I AM PROUD TO JOIN YOU ALL IN
THE WORK YOU HAVE ALREADY
STARTED AND LOOKING FORWARD TO
CONTINUED PARTNERSHIP.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
THANKS FOR SERVING MADAM VICE
CHAIR.
COLLEAGUES, I THINK WE CAN MOVE
ON TO THE DISCUSSION.
IS THERE ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION
ABOUT BY-LAWS AS PRESENTED BY
DIRECTOR NOBLE?
HEARING NONE, I DID WANT TO SAY
THANKS TO DIRECTOR NOBLE, TO
THE TEAM, AND I BELIEVE THE
ROLE CENTRAL STAFF AND ANY
SUPPORT FROM CBO HAS PROVIDED
IN HELPING ESTABLISH THESE BY-
LAWS.
I THINK THEY ALSO OFFER A
LITTLE BIT FLEXIBILITY AS WELL
IF WE NEED TO COME BACK AND
ADJUST FOR ANYTHING AS WE STAND
UP THE FORECAST COUNCIL.
I WILL OFFER THIS, THANKS TO
DIRECTOR NOBLE AND DIRECTOR IN
ADDITION TO THE PRESENTATION WE
WILL RECEIVE QUARTERLY FROM THE
FORECAST COUNCIL, BOTH THE CITY
BUDGET OFFICE AND THIS BODY LED
BY DIRECTOR NOBLE WITH ECONOMIC
AND REVENUE FORECAST OFFICETHEY
WILL THEN AFTER OUR QUARTERLY
PRESENTATIONS, HAVE OPPORTUNITY
TO COME TO THE FINANCE AND
HOUSING COMMITTEE MEETINGS IN
THE SAME MONTH, THE MEETING
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING.
THEY HAVE OFFERED TO COME AND
PROVIDE OVERVIEW OF WHAT IS
DISCUSSED AND VOTED FOR IN OUR
FORECAST COUNCIL AND IT WILL
GIVE US A CHANCE TO HEAR ABOUT
HOW IMPLEMENTATION IS GOING
WITH EXISTING REVENUE.
THIS YEAR I KNOW THERE IS
INTEREST IN THE IMPLEMENTATION
OF THE AMERICAN RESCUE PLAN.
AS WE WILL DISCUSS I KNOW THERE
WILL BE ONGOING INTEREST IN THE
RETURNS FROM THE JUMP START IN
SEATTLE, PAYROLL TAX.
SO THAT WILL BE A CHANCE FOR US
TO HAVE A PRESENTATION IN THE
FORECAST COUNCIL MEETINGS,
VOTE, AND THEN SUBSEQUENT
FINANCE COMMITTEE MEETING,
REALLY HAVE A DEEP DIVE AND
LOOK HOLISTICALLY AT REVENUE
AND SPENDING.
I THANK THEM FOR THAT.
I THINK IT WILL BE A NICE
ROUNDING OUT OF THE
INFORMATION.
AS DIRECTOR NOBLE SAID IF THE
OFFICE IS WORKING ON SUMMARY
REPORT AFTER THE PRESENTATIONS,
IT WILL GIVE US ANOTHER CHANCE
TO HAVE A LOOK AT THE
INFORMATION.
THANKS FOR THAT.
ANYTHING ELSE DIRECTOR NOBLE?
>> I'M GOOD.
>> GREAT.
THANK YOU SO MUCH, COLLEAGUES.
I MOVE TO APPROVE BY-LAWS
PRESENTED BY DIRECTOR NOBLE.
IS THERE A SECOND?
>> SECOND.
>> YOU CAN SECOND TOO DEPUTY
MAYOR, JUST SO YOU KNOW.
IT'S NOT ALL ON ME.
>> I AM GOING TO JUMP IN.
IT WILL BE LIKE DOUBLE DUTCH.
>> I LIKE THIS.
MOVED AND DOUBLY SECONDED.
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS?
ALL THOSE IN FAVOR SAY AYES FOR
ACCEPTING BY-LAWS AS PRESENTED.
>> AYES.
>> ANY OPPOSED?
ANY ABSTENTIONS?
WONDERFUL.
IT IS UNANIMOUS.
CONGRATULATIONS DIRECTOR NOBLE
AND TO YOUR TEAM.
YOU HAVE PROVIDED A SOLID
FOUNDATION FOR THE BY-LAWS AND
WE LOOK FORWARD TO BUILDING
THOSE WITH YOU.
WE WILL MOVE TO ITEM THREE,
PRESENTATION OF THE 2022 WORK
PROGRAM FOR OFFICE OF ECONOMIC
AND REVENUE FORECAST.
WE'LL HAVE A DISCUSSION AND
POSSIBLE VOTE ON THE WORK
PROGRAM THAT HAS BEEN PRESENTED
AND THANKS TO THE OFFICE OF
ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST,
IT HAS BEEN POSTED TO THEIR
WEBSITE AS WELL.
DIRECTOR NOBLE, I WILL HAND THE
MICROPHONE BACK TO YOU EVEN
THOUGH YOU ARE NOT IN CHAIR
ROLE.
YOU WILL HAVE A LOT OF AIR TIME
TODAY.
THANK YOU FOR WALKING US
THROUGH THE MATERIALS.
>> A PLEASURE.
I WILL SHARE SCREEN AGAIN AND
PUT UP A POWERPOINT THAT
DESCRIBES THE WORK PROGRAM.
I HOPE I GET THE RIGHT ONE.
THAT IS NOT THE RIGHT ONE.
GIVE ME ONE SEC.
>> MINOR ISSUES.
THERE WE GO.
DO YOU SEE NOW?
I CAN GO IN APPROPRIATE MODE.
>> LOOKS GOOD.
THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU FOR THE
AFFIRMATION.
2022 WORK PROGRAM, THIS
PRESENTATION IS THE WORK
PROGRAM IF YOU WILL.
YOU WILL SEE AS I GO THROUGH
WHAT I MEAN BY THAT.
WE'VE ALREADY HAD THIS
BACKGROUND BUT AGAIN THE
PURPOSE OF THE FORECAST COUNCIL
AND FORECAST OFFICE DESCRIBED
STAFF, MYSELF, AND AS I
MENTIONED WE HAVE A THIRD
POSITION WE'LL BE HIRING TOO
SHORTLY.
WE'LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT IN A
MINUTE.
ON THE BACKGROUND, ONE OF THE
THINGS TO UNDERSTAND IS THAT
THE FORECAST OFFICE, OUR
FORECASTING COVERS THESE MAJOR
REVENUE STREAMS BUT NOT ALL THE
REVENUE STREAMS INTO THE CITY.
THESE ARE ONES MOST DEPENDENT
ON THE ECONOMIC FORECAST AND
THE BROADER ECONOMY.
THE SALES TAX, BNO, PAYROLL,
REAL ESTATE EXCISE TAX, PRIVATE
UTILITIES AND ADMISSIONS.
YOU CAN READ THIS LIST.
WE WILL BE WORKING CLOSE WITH
THE BUDGET OFFICE WITH REGARD
TO OTHER REVENUE SOURCES AND IN
PARTICULAR THEY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON US FOR ECONOMIC
FORECAST.
I WILL DESCRIBE MORE OF THIS
SHORTLY TO DO SOME OF THEIR
ADDITIONAL FORECAST WORK.
AS YOU WILL SEE, WE WILL BE
REPORTING IN QUARTERLY REPORTS
ON ALL THE CITY GENERAL FUND
REVENUES AND SOME SELECTED
OTHERS AS WELL.
NOT JUST THOSE THAT WE
FORECAST.
SO YOU WILL HAVE AN OVERALL
PERSPECTIVE AS WE GIVE A
SUMMARY OF WHAT ACTUAL REVENUES
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.
THERE ARE THREE KEY COMPONENTS
TO THE WORK PROGRAM FOR 2022,
FIRST OF WHICH HAS BEEN
OCCUPYING CANDIDLY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE MONTHS, GETTING
THIS ALL SET UP.
FOR INSTANCE WE HAVE BEEN
WORKING CLOSELY WITH THE
DEPARTMENT OF HUMAN RESOURCES
TO CLASSIFY AND DESCRIBE THE
NEW POSITION, OUR THIRD
POSITION WHICH WILL BE AN
ANALYST TO SUPPORT THE
FORECASTING AND PRESENTATION
WORK.
WE JUST GOT APPROVED STRATEGIC
ONE CLASSIFICATION EARLIER THIS
WEEK AND WE WILL MOVE FOR THE
POSTING AND HIRING PROCESS IN
THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS.
WE EXPECT TO HIRE IN THE LATE
APRIL, MID MAY TIME FRAME IF
ALL GOES WELL.
WE HAVE WORKED OUT LOGISTICS
WITH FAS AND HR AROUND BASIC
SUPPORT FOR OUR OFFICE.
WE HAVE A WEBSITE ONLINE.
I CAN SHOW YOU THAT AS WELL
BEFORE WE LEAVE.
I KNOW CITY COUNCIL HAS
ESTABLISHED SOME LINKS THERE.
THAT IS WHERE WE HAVE BEEN
POSTING MATERIALS.
WE DEVELOPED BY-LAWS AS YOU
SAW.
THEN WE ARE WORKING ON SOME
DATA SHARING AGREEMENTS.
IT'S ACTUALLY A REALLY
IMPORTANT POINT FOR US.
THERE IS INFORMATION THAT IS
HELPFUL IN DOING THE FORECAST
THAT IS AVAILABLE FROM STATE
AGENCIES AND ALSO ACTUALLY FROM
WITHIN THE CITY, DATA THAT IS
OF A PROPRIETARY NATURE, FIRM
SPECIFIC INFORMATION ABOUT
REVENUES AND EMPLOYMENT AND THE
LIKE.
IN ORDER TO HAVE ACCESS TO THE
INFORMATION, WE NEED TO
ESSENTIALLY PLEDGE THAT WE
WON'T SHARE INAPPROPRIATELY.
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT LOGISTICS
IN THAT.
WORKING ON THOSE.
THAT'S ONE BODY OF WORK,
GETTING THINGS SET UP.
WE ARE INTO THIS BUT NOT
COMPLETELY DONE.
THEN THE FORECAST WORK.
THAT IS OBVIOUSLY THE BULK OF
THE OFFICE'S FUNCTION.
I WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THERE ARE
REALLY TWO SETS OF FORECASTS
THAT WE'LL BE DOING ALL YEAR AT
EACH STAGE.
ONE IS ECONOMIC FORECAST AND
THE OTHER IS REVENUE FORECAST.
AS THE TIMING SUGGESTS HERE, WE
DO ECONOMIC FORECAST FIRST AND
THAT'S BECAUSE ITS OUTPUTS AND
ITS OUT PUTS ARE PROJECTIONS OF
WHAT REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT WILL
BE IN THE FUTURE, WHAT REGIONAL
INCOME WILL BE IN THE FUTURE.
KEY VARIABLES FOR THE REGION,
UNDERLYING ECONOMIC VARIABLES,
WHAT INFLATION IS LIKELY TO BE.
THEN REVENUE FORECASTS.
GIVEN PAST PATTERNS AND WHAT WE
KNOW FROM EXPERIENCE IF INCOME
IS EXPECTED TO GROW THIS WAY
AND UNEMPLOYMENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS WE FORECAST, WHAT
ARE REVENUES FOR THE CITY GOING
TO BE?
IN PARTICULAR SALES TAX AND
THOSE MAJOR SOURCES.
WE'LL BE PRODUCING ECONOMIC
FORECAST AS DESCRIBED HERE LATE
MARCH, EARLY APRIL, THAT WILL
FEED INTO THE REVENUE FORECAST.
WE WILL BE PROVIDING RESULTS OF
THE ECONOMIC FORECAST.
THERE WILL BE THREE.
THERE WILL BE ORDINANCE OF
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST, BASELINE,
AND OPTIMISTIC FORECAST.
WE'LL BE PROVIDING THAT TO YOU
AND THE BUDGET OFFICE AT THE
SAME TIME, A LITTLE BIT BEFORE
THE REVENUE FORECAST.
THE REASON IS SO THE BUDGET
OFFICE CAN HAVE THAT AS INPUT
TO DO THEIR PARTS OF THE
FORECASTING WORK.
IT WILL STILL BE YOUR DECISION
AS TO WHICH OF THE UNDERLYING
FORECASTS WE USE AND THAT WILL
KEEP US ON PACE TO DEVELOP
UNDERLYING REVENUE FORECAST FOR
THE BUDGET.
WE'LL DO THAT AS YOU SEE IN
APRIL.
THAT WILL BE THE FIRST REVENUE
FORECAST.
THAT WILL BE THE ONE THAT THE
BUDGET OFFICE USES IN INITIAL
WORK OVER THE COURSE OF THE
YEAR.
WE'LL THEN PROVIDE ONE IN THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.
THESE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
ORDINANCE.
THAT REVENUE FORECAST IS THE
ONE THAT WILL UNDERLIE THE
MAYOR'S PROPOSED BUDGET.
THEN WE'LL PROVIDE AN UPDATE
LATE OCTOBER.
IT WILL BE DELIVERED NOVEMBER
2, WHICH IS DAY AFTER ELECTION
DAY THIS YEAR.
THAT WILL BE POTENTIAL
REVISIONS THAT WILL INFORM CITY
COUNCIL'S FINAL DECISION AS IT
COMPLETES ITS BUDGET
DELIBERATIONS.
LAST COMPONENT OF THE WORK
PROGRAM IS POTENTIAL POLICY
RESEARCH.
ORDINANCE ANTICIPATED, TO NAME
NAMES, MYSELF, JAN, OUR NEW
HIRE CAN SUPPORT THE COLLECTIVE
OF THE EXECUTIVE AND
LEGISLATIVE BRANCH IN EXAMINING
POTENTIAL POLICY CHANGES OR IN
A DELIBERATIVE PROCESS CONTEXT
POTENTIALLY SUPPORT THE
LEGISLATIVE DEPARTMENT OR THE
EXECUTIVE FOR SOME PERIOD OF
TIME IN DEVELOPING POTENTIAL
POLICY PROPOSALS AND HELP
RESEARCHING THOSE.
AS NOTED HERE FOR THIS YEAR,
THERE IS POTENTIAL TO WORK WITH
BOTH BRANCHES IN RESPONSE TO
THE COUNCIL STATEMENT AND
LEGISLATIVE INTENT WHICH CALLED
FOR A JOINT EFFORT TO HELP
ADDRESS FINANCIAL CHALLENGES
FOR 2023 INCLUDING POTENTIALLY
NEW PROGRESSIVE REVENUES.
AT THE MOMENT CANDIDLY WE DON'T
HAVE A LOT OF CAPACITY FOR
ADDITIONAL POLICY WORK.
WE'LL BE BUSY FOR THE NEXT
MONTH DEVELOPING THE APRIL
FORECAST AND COMPLETING THE
REPORT YOU WILL SEE TODAY.
GOING FORWARD, LOOK FORWARD TO
FURTHER CONSULTATION WITH
MEMBERS OF THE FORECAST COUNCIL
AND WITH STAFF ON BOTH SIDES TO
DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE ROLE
AND WHAT ASSISTANCE WE CAN
PROVIDE.
THOSE AGAIN ARE THE THREE KEY
ELEMENTS.
I WANT TO TALK ABOUT WHAT WE
PHYSICALLY WILL BE PRODUCING AS
PART OF OUR WORK PROGRAM.
ONE, THE REGIONAL FORECASTS I
DESCRIBED.
PESSIMISTIC, BASELINE, AND
OPTIMISTIC.
IN THE PAST WE HAVE DONE THAT
OR THE BUDGET OFFICE HAD DONE
THAT THREE TIMES, ONCE FOR EACH
OF THE FORECASTS.
PROPOSING NOT THIS YEAR BUT
STARTING THE NEXT WE WILL DO IT
FOUR TIMES.
WE WOULD RUN A MODEL AGAIN IN
JANUARY AND WOULDN'T DEVELOP A
FULL REVENUE FORECAST FROM THE
ECONOMIC RUN BUT WE WOULD BE
ABLE TO GET AN UPDATE TO YOU
ALL ABOUT WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
TERMS OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS
IN THE ECONOMY AND ALSO INFORM
THE BUDGET OFFICE FOR THINGS
LIKE INFLATION PROJECTIONS THAT
ARE IMPORTANT FOR THEIR WORK.
OUR WORK PRODUCT WILL INCLUDE
REVENUE FORECAST AS DESCRIBED.
QUARTERLY UPDATES, YOU WILL
RECEIVE THE FIRST OF THOSE,
PERHAPS WHAT WILL BE THE MORE
INTERESTING, YEAR END, WHERE
YOU SEE ALL OF 2021.
WE'LL PROVIDE UPDATES AS WELL
FOR THE FIRST, SECOND, THIRD
QUARTERS AS WELL.
I WILL NOTE THAT THE QUARTERLY
UPDATES WILL COME AT SOME
NOTABLE DELAY.
THE WAY THE TAX PAYMENTS WORK
IS TYPICALLY FIRST QUARTER TAX
OBLIGATIONS AREN'T DUE UNTIL A
MONTH AFTER.
SO MARCH FOR INSTANCE,
QUARTERLY PAYMENTS FOR QUARTER
THAT ENDS IN MARCH AREN'T DUE
UNTIL THE END OF APRIL.
WE THEN NEED TIME TO DO THE
ANALYSIS.
SO SOMETIME IN MAY.
IT IS JUST TO POINT OUT THERE
IS DELAY IN THE REPORTS.
THEN THE OTHER THING THAT WE
HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DISTRIBUTE ARE MONTHLY
SUMMARIES SO OUR SALES TAX
REVENUES THOUGH THE CITY HELPS
SET PART OF THE RATE, MONIES
ARE COLLECTED BY THE STATE AND
DISTRIBUTED TO THE CITIES AND
COUNTIES ACROSS THE STATE.
WE GET THAT DISTRIBUTION ONCE A
MONTH.
IT'S WITH A TWO MONTH LAG.
IN SOME WAYS IT'S THE MOST
TIMELY MEASURE OF WHAT'S GOING
ON.
WE THOUGHT IT VERY IMPORTANT TO
SHARE THOSE AS WE RECEIVE THEM
AND WE'VE DONE THAT NOW TWICE
OVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
THAT AS WELL.
THOSE ARE THE WORK PRODUCTS.
THEN THIS CALENDAR IS
ESSENTIALLY A SUMMARY OF THE
WORK PROGRAM.
IT SHOWS YOU IN THE FIRST ROW
THE ECONOMIC FORECASTING OF THE
REGIONAL MODEL WE WILL DO.
IT SHOWS REVENUE FORECAST WE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE CALENDAR.
IT SHOWS QUARTERLY REPORTS.
I WAS HIGHLIGHTING THE DELAY.
IT ALSO SHOWS SCHEDULE OF
FORECAST COUNCIL MEETINGS WITH
THE NOTE THIS YEAR THAT THE
FIRST MEETING DIDN'T HAPPEN IN
JANUARY.
IT'S HAPPENING NOW IN MARCH.
BUT ANTICIPATE GOING FORWARD,
WE WILL DO IT IN JANUARY OR
PERHAPS EARLY FEBRUARY.
SO THAT IS THE PROPOSED WORK
PROGRAM THAT WE HAVE DEVELOPED.
I CERTAINLY WELCOME ANY
QUESTIONS AND AM HAPPY TO
ANSWER THEM IDEALLY.
I HUMBLY HOPE YOU WILL BE
WILLING TO ADOPT THAT.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH,
DIRECTOR NOBLE.
COLLEAGUES, ARE THERE ANY
QUESTIONS?
NOT SEEING HANDS.
LET ME ASK A QUICK QUESTION.
THIS IS OUR SUB FOR THE
FORECAST COUNCIL.
IT'S NAP TIME ALMOST.
JUST A CLARIFICATION ON THE
WORK PROGRAM.
IF MEMBERS ASK FOR ADDITIONAL
PROTECTION -- ADDITIONAL
PROJECTIONS FOR LOOKING AT
DIFFERENT REVENUE OPTIONS, DOES
THE WORK PROGRAM ALLOW FOR THE
COUNCIL, FOR YOU AND STAFF, TO
GO AHEAD AND DEVELOP THAT
ANALYSIS?
I KNOW YOU SAID STAFFING IS AN
ISSUE RIGHT NOW.
BUT AT SOME POINT IN THE
FUTURE.
WE HAVE FLEXIBILITY SO THAT ANY
BRANCH CAN ASK FOR ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT IF YOU HAVE CAPACITY.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
WE WOULD WANT TO WORK WITH YOU
IF THERE IS CONCERN IF THERE IS
BALANCE IN THE WAY WE PROVIDED
THAT SUPPORT.
BUT THAT IS THE GOAL OBVIOUSLY
AROUND REVENUE ISSUES.
YES.
>> GREAT.
ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS?
I AM NOT SEEING ANY.
SORRY, DIRECTOR PLEASE GO
AHEAD.
>> THAN YOU.
I WANTED TO NOTE THIS IS GOING
TO BE OUR FIRST TIME THROUGH
THIS SCHEDULE.
SO WITH EXPERIENCE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MOTIONS, WE MIGHT
NEED TO REVISIT THE SCHEDULE.
BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A GREAT PLAN.
>> MUCH APPRECIATING THAT NOTE.
WE'LL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO
FOLLOW THROUGH BUT AS THINGS
DEVELOP MY GOAL WILL BE TO MEET
EVERYONE'S NEEDS.
>> REALLY APPRECIATE THAT
FLEXIBILITY.
I KNOW AS WE WERE LOOKING AT
OPTIONS, CONSIDERING JUMP START
FOR EXAMPLE, HAVING AN ENTITY
LIKE YOURS TO BE ABLE TO DO
PROJECTING OUT IN ADDITION TO
THE TEAM AT CENTRAL STAFF WOULD
HAVE BEEN GREAT AND I AM
THANKFUL FOR CENTRAL STAFF BUT
KNOW THAT THEY HAVE A MILLION
OTHER THINGS ON THEIR PLATE.
HAVING AN OFFICE DEVOTED TO
THIS TOPIC IS CRITICAL.
THANKS AGAIN FOR YOUR OFFER TO
PRESENT AFTER THE THREE DATES
THAT YOU NOTED IN THE
POWERPOINT PRESENTATION.
THAT WILL GIVE MEMBERS OF THE
CONGRESS FOR ALL THE COMMUNITY
WATCHING, THAT WILL GIVE
ANOTHER CHANCE AS WELL TO
UNDERSTAND THE INFORMATION.
AS DIRECTOR NOBLE SAID THIS
COUNCIL ISN'T LOOKING AT EVERY
REVENUE STREAM.
WITH THE COMBINATION BETWEEN
DIRECTOR NOBLE AND DIRECTOR
WE'LL HAVE A CHANCE TO LOOK AT
THE SCOPE AND UPDATES.
HEARING NO ADDITIONAL COMMENTS
OR QUESTIONS, I MOVE TO ADOPT
AND APPROVED 2022 OFFICE OF
ECONOMIC REVENUE AS PRESENTED.
IS THERE A SECOND?
>> SECOND.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH VICE
CHAIR.
IT HAS BEEN MOVED AND SECONDED.
ARE THERE ADDITIONAL COMMENTS
OR QUESTIONS?
HEARING NONE, ALL IN FAVOR
PLEASE SAY AYES.
>> AYES.
>> WONDERFUL.
I SAW A HAND FROM THE COUNCIL
PRESIDENT AS WELL.
SO THAT IS THREE AYES.
ANY OPPOSED?
ANY ABSTENTIONS?
WONDERFUL.
THE MOTION CARRIES AND THE WORK
PROGRAM IS ADOPTED FOR 2022.
THANK YOU AGAIN.
>> THANK YOU.
>> WONDERFUL.
A FINAL ITEM ON THE AGENDA IS A
PRESENTATION FROM DIRECTOR
NOBLE AND JAN DURA ON THE 2021
ACTUAL.
DIRECTOR NOBLE I WILL TURN IT
TO YOU AND JAN WELCOME AGAIN.
IF YOU WANT TO INTRODUCE
YOURSELF FOR THE RECORD THAT
WILL BE WONDERFUL.
THEY'LL GO THROUGH A
PRESENTATION ON THE FINAL 2021
YEAR END REVENUE ACTUAL
RETURNS.
DO YOU WANT TO INTRODUCE
YOURSELF?
>> GOOD AFTERNOON.
MY NAME IS JAN DURA, SENIOR
ECONOMIST AT THE OFFICE OF
REVENUE FORECAST.
I AM LOOKING FORWARD TO WORKING
WITH ALL OF YOU.
>> THANK YOU, JAN.
I WILL TURN IT BACK TO DIRECTOR
NOBLE.
>> THANK YOU.
GIVE ME JUST A MOMENT.
I AM WORKING TO UNMUTE.
>> I WILL FILIBUSTER IN THE
MOMENT.
VICE CHAIR, I CAN'T CALL YOU
VICE CHAIR.
IT JUST FEELS SO WEIRD.
I WILL KEEP GOING BACK TO
SENIOR DEPUTY MAYOR AND STICK
WITH COUNCIL PRESIDENT BUT I
APPRECIATE YOU STEPPING UP IN
THE ROLES.
IT DOESN'T COME OFF THE TONGUE.
>> I AM GOING TO CALL HER VICE
CHAIR.
I AM ENJOYING VICE CHAIR WOMAN.
ALWAYS FREE TO SECOND STUFF.
>> I HAVE BEEN WITH YOU THE
WHOLE TIME.
I CONCUR WITH YOUR VOTES.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
I APOLOGIZE.
I AM AT A FAMILY EVENT IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT I HAVE
TO ATTEND.
I AM WITH YOU.
>> YOU ARE COMING THROUGH LOUD
AND CLEAR.
WE ARE GLAD YOU ARE ON THE
LINE.
THANK YOU FOR EXPRESSING YOUR
SUPPORT FOR THE VOTES AND ALSO
BEING WITH US TODAY.
DID YOU HAVE ANYTHING YOU
WANTED TO ADD, GLEN, AS
DIRECTOR NOBLE IS TEEING UP THE
PRESENTATION?
>> I AM GOOD TO GO WHENEVER.
>> I AM GOOD.
I REALLY APPRECIATE THIS ENTITY
AND WHAT IT CAN DO FOR THE
CITY.
I THINK IT'S ACTUALLY SOMETHING
THAT WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IN OUR
PRESENTATIONS TO THE RATING
AGENCIES WHEN WE SELL OUR BONDS
THAT WE DO HAVE A STABLE
PROCESS FOR MANAGING THIS PART
OF OUR FISCAL AFFAIRS.
I THINK IT IS ALL IN ALL A BIG
WIN FOR THE CITY.
I KNOW RATING AGENCIES WILL
THINK WELL OF IT.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH CHAIR WOMAN
MOSQUEDA.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
DIRECTOR NOBLE.
>> I WILL PUT UP ANOTHER
POWERPOINT PRESENTATION.
BEFORE I DO, LET ME SAY A
LITTLE BIT.
WE WILL GIVE A SUMMARY OF WHERE
2021 REVENUES FINISHED IF YOU
WILL, OUR FINAL ACCOUNTING.
WE WILL COMPARE THAT TO THE
FORECASTS MADE IN NOVEMBER SO
YOU GET A SENSE RELATIVE TO THE
FORECAST, WHERE DID WE END UP.
WE WILL DO COMPARISON TO 2019
TO GIVE SOME SENSE OF WHERE WE
STAND RELATIVE TO THE
PREPANDEMIC LEVELS, SOME SENSE
OF RECOVERY.
JUST A LITTLE BIT OF THE
ACCOUNTING PROCESSES THAT
UNDERLIE THIS AND HELP EXPLAIN
WHY WE ARE HERE NOW VERSES
OTHER TIMES OF THE YEAR.
OBVIOUSLY 2021 ENDED TWO MONTHS
PLUS AGO.
THE WAY THE CITY'S REVENUES
WORK IS THAT MONIES, THERE ARE
TAX OBLIGATIONS FROM ACTIVITIES
IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER THAT
ACTUALLY ARE NOT PAID INTO THE
CITY UNTIL JANUARY AND
FEBRUARY.
SO WE WAIT FOR THOSE PAYMENTS
BECAUSE THEY'RE REALLY ABOUT
2021 ACTIVITIES.
THE COUNTING PHRASE IS WE
ACCRUE THEM.
WE ACCRUE THEM BACK INTO 2021.
THE ACCRUAL PROCESS IS TEE TO
THE LAST DAY OF OF FEBRUARY.
IT WAS REALLY MONDAY THAT THE
BOOKS CLOSED.
SCRAMBLE IS NOT THE RIGHT WORD
BUT THERE WAS INTENSE WORK TO
BE SURE WE ALLOCATE THINGS
APPROPRIATELY BETWEEN '21 AND
'22.
THAT'S THE TIMING.
THESE ARE FRESH NUMBERS IF YOU
WILL.
YOU WILL SEE ME SAY THINGS LIKE
WE WILL SPEND MORE TIME
ANALYZING HERE BECAUSE THAT'S
THE NATURE OF WHERE WE STAND.
WITH THAT BACKGROUND, I WILL
NOW SHARE MY SCREEN AND WALK
THROUGH WITH JAN'S HELP AS
WELL, THE PRESENTATION ON THE
2021 REVENUES.
WE'LL GO TO THE FULL SCREEN
VERSION OF THIS.
Y'ALL CAN SEE THIS, I AM
HOPING.
>> I WILL MOVE FORWARD.
SOMETHING I DIDN'T MENTION IS
JAN HAS INFORMATION, INSIGHT
INTO GENERAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
SINCE NOVEMBER AND SINCE THE
LAST TIME WE DEVELOPED A
FORECAST.
WE'LL PROVIDE CONTEXT FOR THE
NUMBERS YOU WILL SEE.
THE OUTLINE, I WILL START WITH
THE GENERAL FUND AND I AM GOING
TO SHOW YOU OVERALL PICTURE AND
COMPARE THAT TO THE NOVEMBER
FORECAST AND ALSO COMPARE TO
2019.
I AM GOING TO TAKE TIME TO LOOK
AT A FEW SPECIFIC NONGENERAL
FUND REVENUES.
THESE MONIES DON'T GO
TECHNICALLY INTO WHAT'S CALLED
THE GENERAL FUND, THE GENERAL
FUND BEING THE POT OF MONEY IF
YOU WILL THAT SUPPORTS THE MOST
BASIC GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES.
THESE OTHERS WE SELECTED ARE
SIGNIFICANT SOURCES, HAVE
TARGETED USES.
BUT THEY'RE ONES OF INTEREST
AND ONES WORTH HIGHLIGHTING.
WE CAN DISCUSS FURTHER WITH YOU
AND STAFF IF THERE ARE OTHER
ONES YOU WANT THAT KIND OF
DETAIL ON OUR WRITTEN REPORT.
WE'LL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DETAIL
AND WE'LL PROVIDE FURTHER
DETAIL TO STAFF ON BOTH SIDES.
THE LAST POINT IS AN UPDATE ON
NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMY.
WITHOUT FURTHER ADUE I WILL
DIVE IN.
I SET THIS UP SO WE ARE LEADING
WITH LEAD IF YOU WILL RATHER
THAN BURYING LEAD.
THIS IS A GRAPH, TABLE, CHART
TO SHOW YOU WHERE THE 2021
GENERAL FUND REVENUES FINISHED
AND TO COMPARE THOSE BOTH TO
RECENT YEARS AND TO THE
FORECAST.
LET ME START FIRST WITH THE
FIRST POINT, COMPARING TO
RECENT YEARS.
THIS IS TOTAL GENERAL FUND
REVENUE.
WHAT YOU SEE IS FROM 2018-2019,
WE HAD BEEN ON A PERIOD OF
GROWTH.
THE PANDEMIC HIT AND WE SAW A
NOTABLE DECLINE.
FOR FEDERAL ASSISTANCE AS WELL.
FOR 2021 WE TOOK IN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
REVENUES IN 2021, DIFFERENCE OF
MORE THAN $350 MILLION BETWEEN
THE TWO.
HOWEVER, IT'S IMPORTANT TO
RECOGNIZE THAT THE LARGEST
PIECE OF THAT WAS THE NEW
PAYROLL TAX.
I SAY THAT ONLY IN A SENSE OF
OF UNDERSTANDING TO WHAT DEGREE
WE HAVE RECOVERED FROM THE
PANDEMIC.
WE HAVE NOT RECOVERED, IF YOU
WILL, $350 MILLION PLUS REVENUE
FROM OUR NORMAL BASE.
WHAT'S DRIVING REAL GROWTH IN
REVENUE WE SAW IN 2021 IS VERY
MUCH THE PAYROLL TAX.
WE WILL SPEND MORE TALKING
ABOUT THAT AS WELL.
THE OTHER THING THIS GRAPH
SHOWS IS PERFORMANCE OF THE
GENERAL FUND RELATIVE TO OUR
FORECAST.
THERE WE ALSO HAVE
FUNDAMENTALLY GOOD NEWS.
AGAIN COMPARING 1.75 BILLION OF
ACTUAL REVENUES IN 2021 TO THE
FORECAST OF 1.64 BILLION, THE
DIFFERENCE IS 110 MILLION.
SO THERE IS 110 MILLION
ADDITIONAL REVENUE BEYOND THE
FORECAST THAT WE ARE ACCOUNTING
FOR NOW AT THE END OF 2021.
WE WILL SPEND THE REST OF THE
PRESENTATION TALKING ABOUT THAT
AND EXPLORING IT MORE.
IMPORTANT CAVEATS, ONE OF WHICH
IS THE BIGGEST CHUNK OF THAT IS
A DIFFERENCE IN THE PAYROLL
TAX.
SO THERE IS A NOTABLE ACTUAL
FOR THE PAYROLL TAX AND YOU
WILL SEE THE SLIDE IN A MOMENT.
$48MILLION MORE THAN OUR
FORECAST.
A VERY SIGNIFICANT ADDITION TO
THE REVENUES AND PERFORMANCE
ABOVE FORECAST.
THOSE WILL BE NET REVENUES.
HOW YOU CHOOSE TO USE THEM IS A
POLICY QUESTION.
A BIG SHARE OF THE 110 MILLION
IS ADDITIONAL GRANT REVENUES
THAT HADN'T BEEN ANTICIPATED
AND HAVE BEEN BOOKED INTO THE
SYSTEM SINCE.
THE THING TO KNOW IS THEY ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL
EXPENDITURES.
THEY'RE NOT NEW MONEY THAT CAN
BE JUST USED FOR ANYTHING.
WE NEED TO SPEND TIME WITH
BUDGET OFFICE TO UNDERSTAND
WHICH OF THE NEW REVENUES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL
COSTS.
THERE IS ADDITIONAL WORK WE
HAVE TO DO.
WE ARE REPORTING SOON AFTER
THEY'VE BEEN FINAL AND THERE IS
ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS.
I WOULD ESTIMATE IN ADDITION TO
PAYROLL TAX INCREMENT THERE IS
25 TO 35 MILLION OF ADDITIONAL
GENERAL FUND REVENUE THAT IS
NOW AVAILABLE FOR 2022.
AGAIN THAT'S THE HIGH LEVEL.
WE ARE RECOVERING AND CERTAINLY
WE WILL DISCUSS THIS IN GREATER
DETAIL.
KEY REVENUE STREAMS HAVE
RECOVERED FROM PANDEMIC.
SOME IMPORTANT ONES HAVE NOT.
THE PAYROLL TAX HAS PERFORMED
WELL ABOVE EXPECTATION.
I WILL DIG IN A LITTLE BIT.
THIS IS A GRAPH AGAIN AND I
WILL FOCUS FIRST ON COMPARISON
RELATIVE TO FORECAST.
I WILL COME BACK IN A MINUTE
WITH A COMPARISON RELATIVE TO
2019.
THIS IS A COMPARISON RELATIVE
TO FORECAST FOR REALLY KEY
REVENUE STREAMS OF THE CITY.
WHAT YOU WILL SEE IS BUT FOR
THE PAYROLL TAX, WE DID PRETTY
WELL ON FORECASTS.
PROPERTY TAX, DIFFERENCE IS
VERY SMALL.
YOU WILL SEE PROPERTY TAX, VERY
STABLE.
STATE LAW DICTATES WE CAN ONLY
INCREASE PROPERTY TAXES BY 1%
PER YEAR.
THAT PART IS VERY EASY TO
FORECAST.
WE'LL GET 1% MORE THAN WE DID
THE YEAR BEFORE.
THE KEY UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST IS NEW CONSTRUCTION.
IN ADDITION TO THE 1% INCREASE,
THE VALUE OF NEW CONSTRUCTION
IS ALSO ADDED TO OUR BASE.
SO THIS INDICATES THAT OUR
FORECAST FOR VALUE OF NEW
CONSTRUCTION WERE SLIGHTLY
BELOW WHAT THEY ULTIMATELY
TURNED OUT TO BE.
FOR RETAIL SALES TAX,
DIFFERENCE AGAIN IS POSITIVE.
ACTUALS ARE AHEAD OF THE
FORECAST, DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT
2.6 MILLION, LESS THAN 1% OF
THE TOTAL BUT STILL REAL MONEY.
BUSINESS AND OCCUPATION.
BIGGER DIFFERENCE THERE, ABOUT
5%, A LITTLE BIT LESS.
$14MILLION ADDITIONAL REVENUE.
WE'LL TALK MORE ABOUT WHETHER
OR NOT WE THINK THAT'S GOING TO
PERSIST OR NOT.
THEN THE BIG ONE, PAYROLL TAX.
WE HAD BEEN FORECASTING
REVENUES OF ABOUT 200 MILLION.
THEY ARE AT 248 MILLION AS WE
HAVE FINALIZING AT THE END OF
FEBRUARY.
THE NEXT SLIDE WILL DIVE IN A
LITTLE BIT MORE ON THAT.
WITH THAT, I WILL TURN THIS
OVER TO JAN WHO HAS BEEN
FOCUSED A GOOD DEAL ON LOOKING
AT THE REVENUES AND
UNDERSTANDING THEM BETTER.
AGAIN WE'LL BE DOING MORE WORK
OVER THE NEXT MONTH OR MORE ON
THIS BUT WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT A
LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT WE ARE
SEEING THERE, PARTICULARLY
GIVEN HOW STRONGLY THE REVENUES
HAVE PERFORMED.
JAN, IF YOU CAN ADD SOME
THOUGHTS HERE.
>> THE REVENUE CAME IN
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WE
EXPECTED.
THE MAIN REASON IS WE DID NOT
HAVE PARTICULAR GOOD
UNDERSTANDING OF THE TAX BASE.
NOW WE KNOW A LITTLE BIT
BETTER.
WE KNOW THAT THE MAJORITY, MORE
THAN 80% OF REVENUE IS COMING
FROM INFORMATION SERVICES,
PROFESSIONAL, BUSINESS
SERVICES.
WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE BASE
AND WE DON'T REALLY BELIEVE
THAT 2021 IS PARTICULARLY
REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT'S GOING
TO HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE, GIVEN
THAT THE EMPLOYERS ARE STILL
DETERMINING WHAT EXACTLY THEIR
NEED FOR OFFICE SPACE IS, THEIR
STRATEGY REGARDING RETURN TO
WORK, REGARDING HYBRID WORK
MODEL AND ALL THE DETAILS WHICH
ARE AFFECTING THE SIZE OF THE
TAX BASE.
THERE ARE STILL ONGOING PROCESS
ON THE FIRM SIZE AND BECAUSE OF
THAT, WE'LL BE LEARNING OVER
TIME MORE ABOUT THE TAX BASE.
THERE IS STILL A LOT MORE WORK
TO BE DONE HERE.
>> LET ME SAY A LITTLE BIT
MORE.
AS WE ARE DEVELOPING INITIAL
ESTIMATES, WE HAD INFORMATION
FROM ESD, EMPLOYMENT SERVICES
DEPARTMENT, AT THE STATE ABOUT
OVERALL PAYROLLS.
AS YOU KNOW THE PAYROLL TAX
DOESN'T APPLY TO OVERALL
PAYROLL.
IT IS TARGETED TO HIGHER SALARY
POSITIONS.
THAT DATA WERE NOT AVAILABLE.
SO WE WERE NOT GUESSING
ENTIRELY IN THE DARK.
IT WAS DIFFICULT.
WE DID NOT KNOW WHICH FIRMS AND
WHAT THEIR LEVEL OF PAYROLL
THAT WOULD BE SUBJECT TO THE
TAX.
AGAIN JUST TO EMPHASIZE JAN'S
POINT, WE NOW HAVE A YEAR'S
WORTH OF DATA.
THE CHALLENGE IS 2021 WHICH IS
LIKELY TO HAVE BEEN AN UNUSUAL
YEAR.
DIRECTOR LEE CAN SAY MORE ABOUT
THIS AS WELL.
ONE OF THE FACTORS THAT
DETERMINES HOW MUCH TAX IS PAID
IS WHERE WORKERS ARE LOCATED.
WE ARE BENEFITING FROM THE FACT
THAT EMPLOYEES WHO WOULD HAVE
TRAVELED OUTSIDE THE CITY TO
WORK HAVE BEEN WORKING FROM
HOME AND HAVE BEEN SUBJECT TO
THE TAX.
THE REVERSE HAS ALSO BEEN TRUE.
WORKERS WHO USED TO WORK IN THE
CITY AND ARE IN THE SUBURBS ARE
NOT SUBJECT TO THE TAX.
INTO 2022 AND BEYOND, THAT WILL
SORT IN DIFFERENT WAYS.
WE ANTICIPATE SOME FOLKS WILL
BE RETURNING TO THE OFFICE.
TO WHAT DEGREE AND HOW MUCH,
THAT WILL BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
TO HIGHLIGHT, WE DIDN'T
UNDERSTAND THE TAX BASE BEFORE.
THOUGH WE HAVE A YEAR'S WORTH
OF DATA WE DON'T NECESSARILY
UNDERSTAND WHAT THE FUTURE TAX
BASE WILL BE BECAUSE OF THE
NOTION OF OF WORK AND WHERE
WORK HAPPENS IS EVOLVING AS WE
SPEAK.
>> THANK YOU FOR THAT
EXPLANATION.
I HAVE A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT
THAT BUT I SEE DIRECTOR LEE'S
HAND IS UP.
>> I WANTED TO BE SURE WE
UNDERSTOOD THAT THE TAX WAS ON
THE EMPLOYER AND NOT ON THE
EMPLOYEES THOUGH THAT
DISTRIBUTION ISSUE MENTIONED IS
DETERMINED BY WHERE AN
EMPLOYER'S PEOPLE ARE SITTING
WHEN THEY DO THEIR WORK, IF
THEY'RE OFFICE BASED.
SO TO HIS POINT, WE EXPECT A
LOT OF ADJUSTMENTS FROM FIRMS
MOVING FORWARD BECAUSE AS THEY
BRING PEOPLE BACK TO WORK, THE
LOCATION OF WHERE THEY'RE
WORKING, WHERE THEY HAVE THEIR
EMPLOYEES WORKING, WILL BE A
MAJOR CHANGE TO THE TAX BASE.
WE DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH, BUT
IT'S CERTAINLY SOMETHING OUR
AUDIT TEAM IS WATCHING VERY
CLOSELY.
WE ARE ENGAGING WITH TAXPAYERS
NOW TO UNDERSTAND THE
PHENOMENONS AS THEY'VE NOW
FILED THEIR FIRST FULL RETURN
FOR 2021.
THIS IS AN EVER EVOLVING
SITUATION AND I THINK THIS IS
VOLATILITY IN THE REVENUE
STREAM UP SIDE RISK AND DOWN
SIDE RISK.
>> THANKS.
LET'S PAUSE FOR A SECOND.
THIS IS BIG NEWS.
WE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED $200
MILLION FROM JUMP START FOR THE
FIRST YEAR RETURNS.
AGAIN LOOKING AT THE CALENDAR
YEAR FOR 2021.
WE DID GET GOOD NEWS TWO OR
THREE WEEKS AGO THAT THE
REVENUE RECEIPTS AT THE TIME
THANKS TO FAS, GLEN LEE, YOUR
TEAM FOR ALL THE WORK YOU HAVE
BEEN DOING TO COLLECT THE
REVENUE BUT ALSO REALLY THE
STAKEHOLDER INTENSIVE WORK YOU
DID TO DO THE RULE MAKING THAT
LED TO IMPLEMENTATION OF JUMP
START.
THANK YOU SO MUCH.
TWO OR THREE WEEKS AGO WE HEARD
THAT THE REVENUE RETURNS WERE
$231 MILLION.
TODAY WE ARE SEEING THE FINAL
RETURNS FROM THE CALENDAR YEAR
2021.
TOTAL INVESTMENT THAT THIS
PAYROLL TAX IS MAKING TO OUR
GENERAL FUND CONTRIBUTIONS ARE
$248.1 MILLION.
VERY MUCH APPRECIATE THAT THIS
IS SIGNIFICANT REVENUE THAT'S
COMING AT A TIME THAT'S REALLY
NEEDED FOR SO MANY IN OUR
COMMUNITY AND HAS IN THE PAST
HELPED US AVOID CUTS IN
AUSTERITY BUDGETING.
I KNOW WE ARE GOING TO BE
LOOKING JOINTLY WITH THE
EXECUTIVE ABOUT HOW TO
APPROPRIATE NOT JUST THE AMOUNT
THAT WAS OVER ANTICIPATED
PROJECTIONS BUT HOW WE CONTINUE
TO DEPLOY THESE REVENUES
TOWARDS SERVING OUR COMMUNITY
AND JUMP START SPEND PLAN AND
OUR MOST VULNERABLE.
THAT IS HUGE NEWS.
THANK YOU FOR SHARING THAT WITH
US TODAY.
REALLY VERY MUCH APPRECIATE THE
COMPANIES AS WELL THAT YOU HAVE
BEEN WORKING WITH, FINANCE
ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES, THEY
HAD OFFERED SUGGESTIONS THROUGH
RULE MAKING ABOUT HOW TO APPLY
THE TAX IN A WAY THAT WAS
IMPLEMENT ABLE FOR THEIR
EMPLOYEES AND THE COUNCIL
WORKED QUICKLY TO PASS THAT.
I AM GLAD TO SEE THAT THE
FEEDBACK HAD BEEN PROVIDED TO
FAS AND HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED IN
LAW AND IS RESULTING IN FOLKS
BEING ABLE TO PAY THEIR PORTION
OF THE EMPLOYER ASSESSMENT IN A
WAY THAT I THINK HAS BEEN
STREAMLINED BY FAS.
THANK YOU.
ADDITIONALLY, I THINK THAT THE
UNKNOWN QUESTIONS OR UNKNOWN
NATURE OF WHERE WE ARE AT WITH
GLOBAL PANDEMIC AND IMPACT ON
OUR LOCAL ECONOMY, ON GOING
EFFORT TO REOPEN OUR CITY HAS
BEEN BY BOTH JAN, DIRECTOR LEE,
DIRECTOR NOBLE.
I THINK THOUGH THAT SOME OF THE
HEADLINES RECENTLY ARE HELPFUL
FOR US TO FEEL OPTIMISTIC THAT
THE REVENUE BASE WILL CONTINUE
TO GROW.
I THINK THAT IT WAS REPORTED IN
DOWNTOWN ALONE, DOWNTOWN
SEATTLE ALONE, THE SEARCH AND
DESIRE TO HAVE OFFICE SPACE IN
DOWNTOWN CORE WAS 34% HIGHER
THAN PREPANDEMIC LEVELS.
I AM HOPEFUL THAT WE ALL WILL
HAVE A NEW NORMAL AS WE RETURN
FROM THE PANDEMIC IN TERMS OF
MAYBE WHAT WORK FROM HOME LIFE
LOOKS LIKE AND WHAT TRAVEL MAY
LOOK LIKE IN NEAR TERM.
IT DOES SOUND LIKE OUR ECONOMIC
BASE IS CONTINUING TO SHOW
POSITIVE SIGNS OF RETURNING AND
BOOMING.
I THINK THIS IS HELPFUL IN
SHOWING THAT FOR INDUSTRIES
DOING WELL AND ABLE TO PAY A
HEALTHY SALARY TO EMPLOYEES, A
SMALL ESTIMATE ACROSS THE BOARD
WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
FOR OUR REVENUE IN SUPPORTING
MOST VULNERABLE.
I WANTED TO SAY THANK YOU FOR
SHARING THIS NEWS TODAY AND
LOOKING FORWARD TO WORKING WITH
EXECUTIVE AND BUDGET OFFICE AS
WE SEEK TO DEPLOY THESE
REVENUES.
AS ALWAYS, CONTINUING TO
IMPROVE LEGISLATION AS HAS
YEARS OF EXPERIENCE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UPDATE AND IMPROVE
LEGISLATION AS IT GOES FORWARD.
THANKS FOR LETTING ME TAKE A
PAUSE.
I WILL SEE IF THERE ARE OTHER
QUESTIONS.
NOT HEARING ANY, ALWAYS FEEL
FREE TO JUMP OFF MUTE IF I
DON'T SEE YOUR HAND.
GO AHEAD DIRECTOR NOBLE.
>> I THINK MAYOR HARRELL HAD A
COMMENT.
>> I HAD ONE QUESTION.
I KNOW THIS IS FIRST OF ALL
FANTASTIC NEWS.
SO I AM GOING TO JUMP ON WITH
WHAT CHAIR MOSQUEDA SAID,
FANTASTIC NEWS WITH THE PAYROLL
TAX.
IN THIS CASE, DIRECTOR NOBLE, I
AM GOING TO JUST BE HAPPY THAT
IT WAS OVER FORECAST.
I KNOW IT WAS THE FIRST TIME,
SO BEING CONSERVATIVE.
I WILL SAY THAT'S EXTREMELY
POSITIVE NEWS.
I WANTED TO KNOW WHEN PEOPLE
PAID THE FIRST TIME, DID
EMPLOYERS NOTE WHETHER OR NOT
THEY WERE PAYING FOR A HOME
OFFICE OR AN IN PERSON OR DID
THEY JUST PROVIDE THE ADDRESS
FOR THE PAYMENT?
SO WE CAN HAVE SOME SORT OF
DETERMINATION AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT, HOW A SHIFT MIGHT IMPACT
US.
SO IF THERE ARE PEOPLE WORKING
FROM HOME AND WERE PAID FOR THE
HOME ADDRESS, DO WE KNOW HOW
MANY WERE PAID FOR WHAT MIGHT
BE A RETAIL ADDRESS OR AN
OFFICE ADDRESS?
>> I AM GOING TO DEFER THAT
QUESTION TO DIRECTOR LEE IF HE
IS ABLE TO ANSWER.
>> YES.
WE DID NOT COLLECT THAT
SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
RATHER WE ASKED TAXPAYERS TO
IDENTIFY THE SHARE OF THEIR
EMPLOYMENT BASE THAT WAS OVER
150,000 A YEAR THAT WAS WORKING
INSIDE THE CITY AND NOT.
THEN WE HAVE RULES THAT
DESCRIBE THE KINDS OF THINGS
WE'LL LOOK AT WHEN WE AUDIT THE
FIRM TO DETERMINE DID THEY
TRACK THIS CORRECTLY?
SO WE HAVE A VARIETY OF
DIFFERENT METHODS THAT
TAXPAYERS HAVE USED TO TRACK
WHERE THEIR PEOPLE ARE WHEN
THEY'RE WORKING TO SET THE
BUSINESS MODEL THAT THE
TAXPAYERS HAVE.
I AM SORRY TO BE VAGUE BUT WE
FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY
SOMETHING THAT YOU ARE
DESCRIBING BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERENT WAYS PEOPLE HANDLE
THEIR PAYROLL.
WE HAD TO STEP BACK AND SAY
WHEN WE AUDIT YOU, AND WE WILL,
YOU NEED TO BE ABLE TO
DEMONSTRATE FAIRLY PRECISE
TRACKING ABILITY OF WHERE
PEOPLE ARE WORKING.
SO TO MAKE THE POINT SIMPLY, WE
DIDN'T COLLECT THAT UP FRONT.
IT WAS NOT FEASIBLE.
BUT WE DO ANTICIPATE AUDITING
THAT SPECIFIC POINT AS WE START
WORKING WITH TAXPAYERS.
>> EXCELLENT.
THANK YOU SO MUCH.
>> SENSITIVE TO TIME, I WILL
MOVE FORWARD.
I PROMISE THERE IS ONLY ONE
MORE TABLE LIKE THIS IN THE
PRESENTATION.
THE GENERAL FUND IS OBVIOUSLY
MADE OF A LOT OF REVENUE
STREAMS AND CAN BE COMPLEX.
I DID THINK IT WOULD BE HELPFUL
TO GIVE A SENSE AND TO
HIGHLIGHT SOME WE HADN'T
OTHERWISE TOUCHED ON.
WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT PROPERTY
TAX.
WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT RETAIL
SALES TAX.
WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT BUSINESS
AND OCCUPATION TAX.
WE INCLUDED BUSINESS LICENSE
FEES.
IN THE BIGGER SCHEME, A BIG
REVENUE SOURCE.
THESE ARE FEES FIRMS PAY FOR A
BUSINESS LICENSE.
IT'S A FLAT AMOUNT BUT DOES
VARY WITH THE SIZE AND REVENUES
OF THE FIRM.
OUR FORECAST, WE ARE QUITE
TIGHT.
YOU WILL SEE THE COMPARISON TO
2019 ON THIS PARTICULAR REVENUE
STREAM IS SOMEWHAT INTERESTING.
NEXT ITEM IS THE BIG INCREASE
IN PAYROLL TAX.
UTILITY TAX IS SOMETHING WE
HAVEN'T TALKED ABOUT.
THEY ARE COLLECTIVELY A
SIGNIFICANT SHARE.
THERE ARE TAXES ON CITY LIGHT,
SBU, PRIVATE UTILITIES.
YOU SEE THE FOUR THINGS CALLED
OUT THERE COLLECTIVELY IN
EXCESS OF $200 MILLION OF
REVENUE THERE.
CITY LIGHT HAS FALLEN SHORT OF
THE FORECAST.
WE NEED TO SPEND MORE TIME
UNDERSTANDING WHAT'S DRIVING
THAT IN GENERAL.
YOU WILL SEE ANOTHER CHART,
CITY LIGHTS REVENUES SUFFERED
MORE -- WELL THEY'VE SUFFERED
UNDER THE PANDEMIC.
SBU HAS INCREASED REVENUES,
THIS HAVING TO DO WITH WHAT
HAPPENS WHEN PEOPLE WORK FROM
HOME VERSES FROM OFFICES AND
DEMAND ON UTILITIES.
PARKING METERS, COURT FINES.
INCLUDED HERE, THEY GIVE A GOOD
SENSE THAT THOSE ARE IMPORTANT
REVENUE STREAMS TO THE CITY.
YOU WILL SEE MORE ON THIS WHEN
WE COMPARE TO 2019.
ADMISSIONS TAX IS UP SLIGHTLY
RELATIVE TO FORECAST WHICH IS
GOOD NEWS.
THAT CATEGORY, THE SIMPLICITY
OF PRESENTATION IF NOTHING
ELSE, WHICH IS KIND OF
EVERYTHING ELSE.
MOST OF THAT CATEGORY, IT'S
GRANTS AND FEES AND GRANTS AND
FEES CAN ONLY BE USED FOR
CERTAIN PURPOSES SO THEY'RE
LESS INTERESTING THAN OTHER
REVENUE STREAMS.
WE'LL HAVE ADDITIONAL DETAIL
FOR STAFF IN THE WRITE UP BUT
WE DID WANT TO GIVE THIS
OVERALL PICTURE.
NEXT WE ARE GOING TO SHIFT AND
TALK ABOUT COMPARING REVENUE
PERFORMANCE TO 2019 WITH THE
GOAL OF GIVING THE SENSE OF HOW
WE HAVE RECOVERED OR NOT FROM
THE PANDEMIC.
NOT TO SAY THAT THE PANDEMIC IS
OVER BUT TO GIVE YOU A SENSE OF
WHERE REVENUES ARE.
THE KLAY THOMPSON IS FOUR MAJOR
REVENUE STREAMS WE HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED BEFORE AND THIS
TIME IN COMPARISON TO 2019.
ONE THING TO NOTE IS PROPERTY
TAXES HAVE DONE QUITE WELL
SINCE 2019.
THERE IS AN IMPORTANT POINT
THERE.
ONE QUALIFICATION FIRST, THAT
IS, MUCH OF THE INCREASE HAS TO
DO COUNTY WIDE EMS LEVEE WHICH
GOES INTO GENERAL FUND.
THERE WAS A POLICY CHOICE VOTE
OF THE PEOPLE COUNTY WIDE THAT
INCREASED REVENUES.
IT WAS ABOUT A $40 MILLION
DIFFERENCE.
ABOUT 16 MILLION IS JUST THAT.
DOES HIGHLIGHT THAT PROPERTY
TAX REVENUES DID NOT DECREASE
AT ALL BECAUSE OF THE PANDEMIC.
THE WAY STATE LAW WORKS, IT
BOTH LIMITS YOUR GROWTH TO 1%
OF PREVIOUS YEAR BUT ALSO IF
YOU CHOOSE, GUARANTEES THAT YOU
GET THE 1%.
EVEN IF THE VALUE OF PROPERTY
IS FALLING, PROPERTY TAX
REVENUES DO NOT FALL.
THEY GROW BY 1% PLUS VALUE OF
NEW CONSTRUCTION.
PROPERTY TAX HAS HELPED SUSTAIN
US.
INTERESTINGLY, MINOR SIDE NOTE,
COUNTY IS RELATIVELY MORE
DEPENDENT ON PROPERTY TAX.
THAT'S ONE OF THE REASONS AGAIN
IN PROPORTIONATE TERMS THEY
HAVEN'T HAD AS DIFFICULT A
BUDGET TIME THROUGH THE
PANDEMIC.
YOU CAN SEE BOTH SALES AND B &
O ARE UP MARGINALLY FROM 2019
LEVELS BUT DIFFERENCES ARE
SMALL AND IF YOU ADJUST FOR
INFLATION WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY
CAUGHT UP.
IN TERMS OF CORE REVENUES WE
ARE DOING WELL.
WE'LL HAVE A COUPLE SLIDES
EXPLORING BOTH.
THEN THE PAYROLL TAX, OBVIOUSLY
THERE WASN'T ONE IN 2019.
EMPHASIZING THAT POINT THAT
MUCH OF THE INCREMENTAL
REVENUES IN 2021 COMPARED TO
2019 ARE FROM THE PAYROLL TAX.
SOMETHING I NOTED IN A BULLET
BUT DIDN'T SPECIFICALLY SAY,
FOR 2022, PAYROLL TAX DOES NOT
GO PHOTO GENERAL FUND.
WHEN WE SHOW THE GRAPH THAT WE
STARTED WITH THAT SHOWS GENERAL
FUND OVER TIME, FOR 2022 IT'S
CERTAIN THAT IT WILL DECLINE
BECAUSE PAYROLL TAX IS SHIFTED
TO ITS OWN FUND SO IT CAN BE
MORE CLEARLY ACCOUNTED FOR WITH
MORE TRANSPARENCY.
IT WILL HAVE IMPACT OF REDUCING
GENERAL REVENUES.
NOT THE OVERALL BUT THE GENERAL
FUND.
KEY REVENUE STREAMS, CAUGHT UP
TO 2019, LITTLE BIT ABOVE, NOT
NECESSARILY IN INFLATION
ADJUSTED TERMS BUT CERTAINLY
NOT BAD NEWS.
JAN HAS ADDITIONAL WORK
BREAKING DOWN SALES TAX AND B &
O SO I WILL TURN TO HIM TO TALK
ABOUT COMPOSITION, ABOUT WHAT'S
GOING ON IN THE DIFFERENT
SECTORS BETWEEN 2019 AND 2021.
>> IN TERMS OF THE COMPOSITION
ON SALES TAX REVENUE AND HOW IT
EVOLVED FROM 2019 TO 2021, WE
HAVE SEEN NOTICEABLE DECLINE IN
THE REVENUE COMING FROM
HOSPITALITY AND TO SOME EXTENT
DECLINED COMING FROM THE
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR.
WE'LL ADDRESS THE TWO POINTS
LATER ON WHEN PROVIDING UPDATE
ON THE ECONOMIC SITUATION BUT
THIS WILL BE A REOCCURRING
THEME, HAS NOT BEEN COVERED AND
HAS A WAY TO GO.
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IS BEST
DESCRIBED AS DRIFTING SIDEWAYS
WITH POTENTIAL OF QUITE
SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TRACE.
THESE TWO WEAKER SECTORS ARE
LUCKILY FOR SALES TAX REVENUE
OFFSET BY QUITE SIGNIFICANT
GAINS IN TRADE SECTOR AND TO
SOME EXTENT PROFESSIONAL AND
BUSINESS SERVICES AND
INFORMATION SECTOR SERVICES
PERFORMING QUITE WELL AND
OFFSETTING LOSSES IN LEISURE
AND HOSPITALITY AND
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR.
OVERALL SPENDING PATTERNS HAVE
NOT YET RETURNED TO THE
PREPANDEMIC IN TERMS OF
COMPOSITION ON GOODS AND
SERVICES IN TERMS OF HOW
WILLING PEOPLE ARE TO TRAVEL.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY.
THAT IS ANOTHER THING THAT
WE'LL BE TRACKING CLOSELY.
>> WE CAN MOVE TO TALK ABOUT
BUSINESS AND OCCUPATION TAX AND
ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS THERE AS
WELL.
MAJOR REVENUE STREAM, WORTH
UNDERSTANDING WHAT'S DEVELOPED
SINCE 2019.
>> BUSINESS AND OCCUPATION, TO
SOME EXTENT, A SIMILAR STORY
FOR SALES TAX, LEISURE,
HOSPITALITY UNDERPERFORMING
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO 2019.
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR, SIMILARLY
DID NOT BRING AS MUCH REVENUE
AS 2019.
BUT THANKS TO THE INFORMATION,
VERY STRONG GROWTH IN
INFORMATION SECTOR, SIGNIFICANT
GROWTH IN FINANCIAL ACTIVITY
SECTOR, OVERALL REVENUE WAS
HIGHER FOR 2021 COMPARED TO
2019.
THERE HAVE BEEN ADDITIONAL
FACTORS THAT INCREASED OVERALL
REVENUE MORE THAN EXPECTED THAT
ARE MORE TECHNICAL IN NATURE
BUT CAN BE BEST DESCRIBED AS
LARGER THAN EXPECTED AMOUNT
COMING FROM NONCURRENT PAYMENTS
WHICH ARE NOT NECESSARILY
REFLECTING OF THE INCREASES
THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE 2022
LIKE RECEIVING ANNUAL PAYMENTS
THAT ARE ONLY DUE IN APRIL OR
IN JANUARY.
SO SOME OF THE REVENUE
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE REVENUE IN 2022 ALREADY
INCREASING REVENUE IN 2021.
UNLESS THERE ARE QUESTIONS, I
GUESS WE CAN MOVE FORWARD.
>> I PROMISED THERE WERE ONLY
TWO.
THIS IS THE OTHER ONE.
SAME CHART AS BEFORE BUT THE
COMPARISON IS TO 2019 RATHER
THAN THE FORECAST.
IT DOES GIVE A CHANCE TO
HIGHLIGHT AREAS WHERE WE ARE
SEEING SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY
BETWEEN WHAT WE COLLECTED IN
2021 AND WHAT WE HAD COLLECTED
IN 2019.
PROPERTY TAXES WERE STRONG,
SALES AND B & O ARE UP
SOMEWHAT.
BUSINESS LICENSE FEES ARE DOWN.
THESE ARE FEES PAID BY FIRMS
THAT ESSENTIALLY HAVE FLAT
AMOUNT FOR YEARS, THE AMOUNT
DEPENDS ON THE SIZE OF THE
FIRM.
THIS SUGGESTS FEWER FIRMS, THE
COMBINATION AND THEY HAVE FEWER
REVENUES.
A HIGHLIGHT THERE.
THE PAYROLL TAX, I MENTIONED
CITY LIGHT REVENUES DECLINED
RELATIVE TO PREPANDEMIC LEVELS.
SBU IS UP.
PRIVATE UTILITIES FOR CABLE AND
TELEPHONE, THIS LINE ITEM, YOU
WILL SEE DECLINE OF ABOUT 4 AND
A HALF MILLION RELATIVE TO
2019.
INTERESTINGLY WE DON'T THINK
THAT'S PANDEMIC RELATED.
THERE HAS BEEN STEADY DECLINE
IN USE OF CABLE AND TELEPHONES.
NOBODY TALKS ANYMORE AND MORE
PEOPLE ARE PULLING THE PLUG.
IT'S BEEN A LONGTERM TREND BUT
HAS CONTINUED.
I WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT MORE THAN
ANYTHING THE NEXT TWO.
PARKING METERS AND COURT FINES.
MUCH OF COURT FINES IS PARKING
TICKETS.
YOU ARE SEEING IN EXCESS OF $40
MILLION IN 2021 LOWER THAN 2019
HAVING EVERYTHING TO DO WITH
REDUCED DEMAND FOR PARKING.
THE CITY HAS A POLICY THAT
PARKING METER RATES ARE SET TO
MEET DEMANDS.
RATES ARE LOWER THAN THEY WERE
BECAUSE FEWER PEOPLE WANT TO
USE THE PARKING SPOTS.
I PERSONALLY THINK BECAUSE THE
RATES ARE CHEAPER, THERE ARE
FEWER VIOLATIONS.
IT ONLY COSTS A DOLLAR, IT IS
EASY TO BUY TWO HOURS WORTH
VERSES NOT GETTING A TICKET.
AT $4 AN HOUR, INCENTIVES ARE
SIGNIFICANT.
ADMISSIONS TAX, WE BEAT THE
FORECAST FOR '21 BUT ARE DOWN
RELATIVE TO 2019.
I JUST WANTED YOU TO SEE THAT
THOUGH OUR CORE REVENUES OF B &
O AND SALES AND PROPERTY ARE
STRONG, THERE WERE SIGNIFICANT
REVENUES OR ARE SIGNIFICANT
REVENUE STREAMS THAT
CONTRIBUTED TO GENERAL FUND
THAT ARE STILL WELL BELOW 2019
LEVELS.
I AM GOING TO SHIFT TO TALK
ABOUT THESE FOUR NONGENERAL
FUND REVENUES THAT I THINK ARE
WORTH NOTING.
THE CHART AND TABLE HERE
CONTAIN ALL THE INFORMATION AND
IT'S THE SAME INFORMATION IN
SOME SENSE.
THE DOLLAR VALUES ON THE TABLE
MATCHED THE GRAPH.
YOU CAN SEE THE DOLLAR
DIFFERENCE IN THE HEIGHT OF THE
BARS AND PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE
FOR EACH OF THE REVENUE
STREAMS.
ONE THING IS REAL EX TATE
EXCISE TAX REVENUE HAS
PERFORMED VERY WELL.
THIS IS A COMPARISON TO OUR
FORECAST.
I WILL SHOW THE INFORMATION
COMPARED TO 2019.
THOSE ARE DIFFERENT WAYS TO
LOOK AT THE SAME STUFF.
RELATIVE TO OUR FORECAST, IT IS
REALLY UP, ABOUT $10 MILLION.
THERE IS AGAIN AVAILABLE FOR
POTENTIAL APPROPRIATION GOING
FORWARD, ADDITIONAL $10 MILLION
REAL ESTATE EXCISE TAX.
IT HAS A SET OF PRESCRIBED
USES.
IT'S NOT A PURE GENERAL FUND
REVENUE SOURCE BUT DOES SUPPORT
A VARIETY OF CAPITAL PROJECTS.
WE HAVE BEEN USING SOME TO
SUPPORT AFFORDABLE HOUSING AS
WELL.
AGAIN, THIS IS GOOD NEWS IN
DEFENSE OF THE FORECAST.
THERE WERE SEVERAL LARGE
PROPERTY SALES.
IT'S TAX ON REAL ESTATE
TRANSACTIONS.
THERE WERE SEVERAL LARGE
PROPERTY SALES LATE IN THE YEAR
WHICH DROVE THIS UP.
COMMERCIAL PARKING.
AGAIN WE BEAT THE FORECAST BY A
LITTLE BIT.
THE SAME IS TRUE FOR SODA TAX.
NOT HUGE DIFFERENCES BUT ONES
THAT MATTER.
ONE AREA AMONG SELECTED ONES WE
UNDERPERFORMED TO FORECAST WAS
SHORT TERM RENTAL TAX,
SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS AIR
BNB TAX JUST TO GIVE A
REFERENCE POINT.
THAT'S CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN AROUND OMICRON AND
PARTICULARLY IMPACTS ON THE
FOURTH QUARTER.
JAN HAS VERY GOOD GRAPHICS TO
HIGHLIGHT.
I WILL TRY TO MOVE QUICKLY SO
WE CAN GET TO THOSE.
THE NEXT SET IS A SLIDE THAT
DOES SAME REVENUE STREAMS BUT
COMPARES TO 2019.
AGAIN TO SEE HOW WE HAVE
EVOLVED.
THIS IS IMPORTANT TO SEE AND
UNDERSTAND.
CONTINUES TO DO WELL, WE ARE
ABOVE 2019.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS REAL ESTATE
TRANSACTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN
AFFECTED NEGATIVELY BY COVID.
THE 2019 LEVELS WERE PERHAPS
LOWER THAN THEY MIGHT HAVE BEEN
BECAUSE THERE WERE REASONS TO
INCENTIVIZE TRANSACTIONS.
OVERALL THE REAL ESTATE MARKET
IS DOING WELL. A SIGNIFICANT
DECLINE OF 40% RELATIVE TO
2019, SO NOTABLE DECLINES IN
REVENUE THERE.
SIMILARLY, I SHOWED YOU WE BEAT
THE FORECAST FOR SODA TAX AND
SHORT TERM RENTAL WAS UNDER BUT
SODA TAX AND SHORT TERM RENTAL
ARE SHORT OF THE 2019 LEVELS BY
12%.
THAT HOSPITALITY AND LEISURE
SECTOR, THE THEME WE HAVE SEEN
BEFORE, IS UNDERPERFORMING
RELATIVE TO 2019 AS WELL.
WE'VE HAD SOME RECOVERY
RELATIVE TO 2020 BUT STILL NOT
ALL THE WAY BACK.
WITH THAT I WILL TURN TO JAN TO
GIVE MORE GENERAL OBSERVATIONS
ABOUT KEY SECTORS, KEY ELEMENTS
OF THE OVERALL NATIONAL AND
REGIONAL ECONOMY.
>> SO A QUICK OVERVIEW OF WHERE
THE ECONOMIC CLIMATE IN THE
NATIONAL ECONOMY AND REGIONAL
ECONOMY ARE.
WE DON'T HAVE MARCH FORECAST.
IT WILL SERVE AS STARTING POINT
TO DEVELOP REGIONAL ECONOMIC
FORECAST AND APRIL REVENUE
FORECAST WHICH IS SUMMARIZING
2021.
THE SUMMARY IS THERE HAVE BEEN
OVER ALL BETTER THAN EXPECTED,
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED GROWTH IN
INCOME IN OUTLAYS, SALES,
EMPLOYMENT, EXCEEDED
EXPECTATIONS NOT PARTICULARLY
MEDICALLY BUT OVERALL THESE ARE
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS.
THE KIND OF NEGATIVE, SOMETHING
THAT EMERGED AS NEGATIVE AND
SIGNIFICANT DOWN SIDE RISK IS
RISING INFLATION.
THE CHART SHOWS OVERALL CHANGE
IN 2021 BUT DOESN'T REALLY SHOW
THAT WHAT HAPPENED IS AN
INCREASE, DRAMATIC INCREASE IN
THE INFLATION OVER THE YEAR AND
THE LAST NUMBER RELEASED
RECENTLY IS AT 7%.
SO IT IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
OVERALL ANNUAL AVERAGE.
WITH WAR IN UKRAINE, THERE IS
ADDITIONAL INFLATION PRESSURE
THAT WILL LEAD TO UPWARDS
TRADITION IN THE INFLATION
FORECAST THAT WE HAVE
DEVELOPED.
MOVING ON TO THE REGIONAL
SUMMARY.
>> A COMMENT ABOUT THAT.
ONE THING TO UNDERSTAND, THIS
CERTAINLY WAS SEEN AT THE STATE
LEVEL.
INCREASED FORECAST OF
INFLATION, HAVE EFFECT OF
INCREASING DOLLAR VALUE OF THE
REVENUE FORECAST BECAUSE SALES
TAX IS COLLECTED ON NOMINAL
VALUE.
PRICE OF GOODS GOES UP, SALES
TAX REVENUE GOES UP.
THE DOWN SIDE IS THAT THE
SERVICES THE CITY PROVIDES, THE
EMPLOYMENT COSTS, LABOR COSTS
FOR CITY EMPLOYEES ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO GO UP WITH THE
INFLATION.
YOU WILL SEE THE NOMINAL VALUE
OF REVENUES GO UP BUT IT ISN'T
ALL NECESSARILY A GOOD NEWS
STORY IF YOU WILL.
NEVER MIND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT
IT HAS ON FOLKS WHO ARE MORE
INCOME CONSTRAINED.
>> THAT'S A GOOD POINT.
FOR REGIONAL ECONOMY WE HAVE
SIMILAR DEVELOPMENTS AS
NATIONAL ONE, TAXABLE SALES
IMPLEMENT ABOVE EXPECTATIONS
NOT DRAMATICALLY.
MOST DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE IS IN
TERMS OF INFLATION AND OVERALL
TREND IT'S BEEN TAKING IN THE
LAST COUPLE MONTHS, PUTTING
THAT UPWARDS PRESSURE ON CITIES
EXPENDITURES AND LABOR COSTS
...
IF WE CAN GO TO THE NEXT SLIDE.
>> YES.
>> THIS IS A QUICK SUMMARY OF
HOW THE LABOR MARKET IS
RECOVERING.
WE HAVE SEEN CATCHING UP
PROCESS IN THE REGIONAL
EMPLOYMENT SO THE GAP BETWEEN
THE JOB LOSSES IN THE REGION
AND JOB LOSSES IN NATIONAL
ECONOMIES SHRINKING, SOMEWHERE
AROUND 2%.
THIS DOES NOT REALLY SHOW THE
COMPOSITION, BIGGER DIFFERENCES
THERE.
MANUFACTURING SECTOR LEISURE
AND HOSPITALITY ARE MOST IN THE
REGIONAL ECONOMY, NOT SO MUCH
IN THE NATIONAL ONE.
ONE MORE IMPORTANT THING THAT I
WANT TO STRESS IS THAT THESE
ARE REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT
DEVELOPMENTS, CITY LEVEL
EMPLOYMENT FOR 2021, WILL BE
BECOME AVAILABLE IN SUMMER.
WE ARE NOT SURE YET HOW THE
DYNAMIC HAS AFFECTED THE
EMPLOYMENT IN DIFFERENT CITIES
OF THE REGION AND TO WHAT
EXTENT, MIGHT HAVE BEEN SOME
SHIFTS BETWEEN SAY SEATTLE.
WE'LL GET MORE INSIGHT ON THAT.
NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.
A COUPLE FINAL POINTS.
THOSE STRUGGLING SECTORS,
LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY AND
CONSTRUCTION TO SOME EXTENT,
THE TREND SINCE NOVEMBER ARE
SIMILAR IN THE NATIONAL AND
REGIONAL ECONOMY.
WITH THE OMICRON WAVE, LEISURE
AND HOSPITALITY SECTOR HIT
QUITE HARD, SAW RECOVERY AND
THEN SAW SIGNIFICANT RETREAT IN
TERMS OF HOTEL WITH
RESERVATIONS AND RESTAURANTS.
HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS COUNT
FOR SIGNIFICANT SALES TAX
REVENUE.
THEY COUNTED FOR THAT
PREPANDEMIC AND THE RETURN HAS
NOT BEEN BY ANY SENSE FULL.
THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO.
THAT'S A PARTICULAR CONCERN
HERE.
IF WE CAN MOVE TO THE LAST
SLIDE FOR CONSTRUCTION SECTOR.
THERE IS AGAIN A BIT OF CONCERN
HERE IN TERMS OF FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT BECAUSE WE HAVE
ALREADY SEEN KIND OF A SIDEWAYS
DRIFTING IN TERMS OF REVENUE
SHOWN HERE IN THE RED LINE,
TAXABLE SALES AND CONSTRUCTIONS
HAVE BEEN DRIFTING SIDEWAYS
RECENTLY WITH POTENTIAL TO
DECLINE BECAUSE THEY'RE CLOSELY
LINKED TO VALUE OF PERMITS
ISSUED SHOWN IN THE BLUE LINE.
AS YOU SEE VALUE OF PERMITS
ISSUED HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY.
THERE HAS BEEN UP TICK RECENTLY
BECAUSE OF SOME LARGE MULTI
FAMILY PROJECTS THAT HAVE
STARTED AT THE END OF 2021.
BUT OVERALL WE ARE STILL QUITE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW 2019 VALUES
AND PARTICULARLY FOR COMMERCIAL
SECTOR AND THE MULTI FAMILY
RESIDENTIAL PERMITS ARE MAKING
UP SOME OF THE LOSSES BUT NOT
BIG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY OFFSET
THE LOSSES.
>> DEPUTY MAYOR HARRELL.
>> I HAD ONE QUESTION.
PARTICULARLY WE HAVE TALKED
ABOUT CONSTRUCTION A FEW TIMES.
DO WE HAVE ANY IDEA AS TO HOW
THE CONCRETE STRIKE, SOME OF
THE CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY MIGHT
IMPACT US GOING FORWARD?
THAT'S A BIG QUESTION FOR NOW.
BUT I THINK AS WE ARE GETTING
INTO THE FORECAST, I THINK IT'S
BEEN MANY MONTHS NOW.
SO HOW THE PERMITTING MIGHT BE
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL
CONSTRUCTION AT THIS POINT
BECAUSE THERE WILL BE A BACKLOG
AND HOW THAT WILL IMPACT THIS.
>> THE CONCERNS REGARDING
PERMITS ARE MORE OF A LONGER
TERM CONCERNS BECAUSE THEY ARE
LEAVING ACTUAL ACTIVITY
SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE STRIKE WILL AFFECT REVENUE
MUCH EARLIER THAN THE NEGATIVE
IMPACTS WITH LOWER PERMITS.
THE STRIKES WILL CERTAINLY
NEGATIVELY AFFECT CONSTRUCTION
REVENUE IN THE NEXT MONTHS,
SEEING IN THE DISTRIBUTION FROM
THE DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE IN
THE COMING MONTHS.
>> I THINK YOU FLAG AN ISSUE
THAT WE ARE DEFINITELY WATCHING
IF YOU WILL AND IT'S RAISED TO
US AS WELL.
WE HAVE MONTHLY DISTRIBUTIONS
OF SALES TAX REVENUE.
THE WAY SALES TAX ON
CONSTRUCTION WORKS IS ALL THE
MATERIALS DELIVERED TO A JOB
SITE ARE CONSIDERED TO HAVE
BEEN PURCHASED AT THE JOB SITE.
SO WE GET SIGNIFICANT REVENUE,
WHICH IS GOOD NEWS.
BAD NEWS IS YOU HAVE NOTED
THERE IS LESS ACTIVITY BECAUSE
OF THE STRIKE.
SO WE EXPECT TO SEE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE DISTRIBUTIONS FROM THE
STATE SOME EARLY EVIDENCE OF
THAT AND WE WILL HAVE TO
INCORPORATE THAT INTO
ESTIMATES.
AGAIN CONSTRUCTION CONTRIBUTES
TO SALES AND B & O TAX.
WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR A
WHILE NOT BECAUSE OF THE STRIKE
BUT BECAUSE OF CONCERNS ABOUT
WHETHER THE DEMAND, CHANGES IN
DEMAND FOR OFFICE SPACE COULD
HAVE IMPACTS.
ANTICIPATION WAS THE LARGE
PROJECTS UNDERWAY WOULD
CONTINUE, THOSE WELL INTO PLAN
AND FINANCE, MIGHT ALSO COME
OUT OF THE GROUND BUT THERE CAN
BE LONGER TERM IMPACTS THERE.
THE PERMIT DATA SUGGESTS THAT'S
THE CASE.
THE RESIDENTIAL SIDE WITH MULTI
FAMILY HAS BEEN STRONG AND
HELPED OFFSET SOME OF THAT.
WE ARE HOPING THE STRIKE WILL
BE TRANSIENT BUT I THINK IT IS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT IT WILL
HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT IN 2022.
THAT IS THE END OF OUR
PRESENTATION AND FORTUNATELY
IT'S PERFECT TIMING SINCE WE
ARE AT THE END OF OUR ALLOTTED
MEETING TIME.
AGAIN, WE WILL WORK ON OUR
WRITTEN VERSION OF THIS AND
THEN WE ARE OTHERWISE, WE WILL
BEGIN TO PREPARE THE FORECAST
TO BRING TO YOU IN APRIL.
SO THAT IS OUR NEAR TERM WORK.
ANY REMAINING QUESTIONS, I AM
HAPPY TO TAKE THOSE.
OTHERWISE ON THE PRESENTATION
SIDE, WE ARE COMPLETE.
>> WONDERFUL.
I SEE A HAND.
WE HAVE THE INTERIM DIRECTOR
AND I WANTED TO DOUBLE CHECK
DIRECTOR LEE, YOUR HAND MIGHT
BE CARRY OVER FROM BEFORE.
>> IT IS.
>> OKAY.
THANKS.
INTERIM DIRECTOR PLEASE GO
AHEAD.
>> THANK YOU CHAIR MOSQUEDA,
DIRECTOR NOBLE AND JAN FOR THE
PRESENTATION.
YOU MAY HAVE SAID THIS BUT IN
CASE IT WASN'T SAID, IN 2021,
THE JUMP START FUND REVENUES
ARE PART OF THE GENERAL FUND
AND CONTRIBUTING TO SUPPORT
GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES.
IN FUTURE YEARS IT GOES INTO A
SEPARATE FUND WITH SPECIFIC
POLICIES ABOUT HOW THAT'S USED.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO KEEP THAT TO
CONTEXT AS WE CONTINUE ON GOING
BUDGET DISCUSSIONS THAT IN
FUTURE YEARS THAT PORTION OF
THE GENERAL FUND PICTURE WILL
LOOK DIFFERENT WITHOUT GENERAL
FUND REVENUE.
I WANTED TO BE SURE THAT WAS ON
THE RECORD.
>> THANK YOU.
IT'S A MATERIAL POINT THING
ABOUT GOING FORWARD.
WE SHOW THE CHART THAT SHOWED
GENERAL FUND REVENUES OVER
TIME.
THERE WILL BE DECLINE IN 2022
IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THE
250 MILLION THAT HADN'T BEEN
THERE WILL BE IN ITS OWN
SEPARATE FUND.
WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE REPORTING
ON THAT FUND AND BRINGING THE
RESTRICTIONS ON USE OF THE
MONIES, NARROWER SET OF USES
COMPARED TO GENERAL FUND AS A
WHOLE.
>> THANK YOU BOTH FOR THE
POINTS.
I SHOULD HAVE BEEN CLEAR IN MY
COMMENTS AS WELL ABOUT THAT.
THANKS FOR THAT.
DIRECTOR NOBLE AND TEAM, I WAS
GOING TO ASK, THANK YOU FOR THE
SUMMARY OF THE INFORMATION FROM
2021 AND THE ACTUAL.
AS WE LOOK AT THE UPCOMING
PRESENTATIONS FOR THE REVENUE
FORECAST IN APRIL, AUGUST,
NOVEMBER, I AM WONDERING IF WE
MIGHT BE ABLE TO, WITH ENOUGH
LEAD TIME, INCLUDE IN
PRESENTATIONS A TEN YEAR
HISTORY OF THE ACTUAL
COLLECTIONS COMPARED TO THE
PROJECTIONS?
THAT WAY MAYBE WE CAN SEE OVER
TIME.
I THINK IT MAY BE HELPFUL NOW
THAT WE HAVE THIS BODY PULLED
TOGETHER AND WANTED TO FLAG
THAT IN TIME TO SEE IF THAT'S
SOMETHING YOU MAY BE ABLE TO
INCLUDE.
>> I THINK IT'S AN INTERESTING
IDEA.
WE HAVE CHATTED WITH STAFF
ABOUT THAT.
I AM CANDIDLY WORRIED WHETHER
WE WILL BE ABLE TO DO IT FOR
THE APRIL MEETING BUT I THINK
IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT WE
GIVE SOME SENSE OF THE HISTORIC
ACCURACY OF THE FORECASTS.
THAT'S AN IMPORTANT PIECE OF
THE OVERALL PICTURE.
IT'S HIGH ON OUR LIST.
I WILL FALL SHORT OF COMMITTING
TO IT, NEED TO SORT THROUGH
OTHER ELEMENTS WE HAVE TO PULL
TOGETHER FOR NEXT MONTH.
ABSOLUTELY IT IS SOMETHING THAT
WE WILL WORK ON.
>> APPRECIATE THAT.
DIRECTOR, PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> THANK YOU.
I ALSO WAS WONDERING IF IT'S
POSSIBLE, DIRECTOR NOBLE, TO
INCLUDE, YOU HAD CHARTS IN THE
PRESENTATION THAT SHOWED 2019
COMPARED TO 2021 ACTUAL.
I AM CURIOUS TO KNOW IF YOU
COULD IN YOUR MATERIALS THAT
YOU PRODUCE ALSO INCLUDE WHAT
PROJECTED AMOUNT FOR 2021 WOULD
TO SHOW WHAT THAT SORT OF LOST
GROWTH OVER TIME IS, IF YOU CAN
INCLUDE THAT.
THAT WOULD BE HELPFUL.
>> I AM GOING TO LOOK AND SEE
IF WE DID A FORECAST OTHER THAN
THE PANDEMIC FOR '21.
REMEMBERING TIMING WITH ANNUAL
BUDGETS AND THE LIKE.
BUT IF WE HAVE THAT, THAT WAS A
POINT MADE IN PASSING IN ONE OF
THE BULLETS.
WE WOULD HAVE HAD A LOT OF
GROWTH OTHERWISE.
DEMAND FOR SERVICES MAY HAVE
WELL BEEN INCREASING OVER THAT
TIME.
THAT'S ANOTHER GOOD BENCHMARK.
I AM LESS CERTAIN WE'LL BE ABLE
TO DO THAT AS EASILY AS THE
FORECAST ACTUAL COMPARISON.
>> IF SHE CAN REGIVE ME THE
NUMBER IN THE CONTACT.
>> JUST WANT TO MAKE SURE FOLKS
ARE ON MUTE IF YOU AREN'T
INTERESTED IN SPEAKING.
>> WE'LL LOOK INTO THAT.
>> THANK YOU.
>> GREAT POINT.
THANKS SO MUCH FOR BRINGING
THAT UP.
I WOULD ALSO UNDERSCORE THAT
REQUEST.
THEN YOU HAD GREAT INFORMATION
ABOUT 2019 LEVELS AND SOME OF
THE REVENUE SOURCES THAT
HAVEN'T FULLY RECOVERED.
IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE NOW BUT
PERHAPS AS YOU WORK ON YOUR
FINAL REPORT, IF YOU HAVE
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT
VARIANCES AND IF YOU HAVE
THOUGHTS ABOUT IF, WHEN FOLKS
COME BACK TO WORK IN PHYSICAL
OFFICES OUTSIDE OF THEIR HOMES
AND LIFTING OF THE MASK
REQUIREMENTS AND THINGS LIKE
THAT, IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE
REVENUES RECOVER.
I GUESS I WOULD ARGUE THAT I
DON'T ACTUALLY THINK WE SHOULD
BE HOPING THAT THE PARKING AND
PARKING TICKET REVENUES RECOVER
BECAUSE I DO HOPE MORE FOLKS
TAKE PUBLIC TRANSIT.
AND I THINK WE SHOULD TRY TO
PROMOTE AND PLAN FOR THAT BUT
WONDERING IF YOU HAVE THOUGHTS
ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WOULD BE FULL RECOVERY IN
SPECIFIC AREAS WE HAVEN'T SEEN
FULLY RECOVER FROM 2019.
>> I MADE THE JOKE IN PREVIOUS
PRESENTATIONS, CERTAIN
SITUATIONS WITH THE RIGHT
DOCTOR TO DO THIS MIGHT BE A
MEDICAL ONE RATHER THAN AN
ECONOMIST BECAUSE UNDERSTANDING
WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TO
BEHAVIOR WILL BE A KEY ELEMENT
TO THIS.
I DO THINK IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
WE ARE SEEING THE LOOSENIG,
THE STATE LEVEL WE ARE IN THE
COMING WEEKS, LOOSENING OF THE
PANDEMIC RESTRICTIONS AND EVERY
EXPECTATION THAT THAT WILL HELP
HOSPITALITY, MOST IMMEDIATELY
PROBABLY RESTAURANTS AND
PROBABLY OVER A LONGER TIME
FRAME TRAVEL WITH HOTELS AND
THE LIKE.
THAT IS AN ELEMENT THAT AS WE
MOVE FORWARD WE'LL WANT TO TRY
TO INCORPORATE AS WELL.
>> GREAT.
I AM LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL
HANDS AND I THINK DIRECTOR
LEE'S IS A HANGOVER.
DO WE HAVE THE 2021 COLLECTIONS
AND HOW THOSE COLLECTIONS
COMPARE TO THE APRIL 2021
FORECAST IN TERMS OF PERCENTAGE
AND AMOUNT VARIANCES?
IS THAT PART OF THE REQUEST
THAT THE DIRECTOR MADE?
>> I THINK THE OBSERVATION AND
YOUR REQUEST ABOUT LOOKING AT
THE VARIANCES FORECAST OVER
TIME, I THINK WE'LL GET TO
THAT.
WE DEBATED WHICH FORECAST TO
BASE FROM.
ONE OF THE THINGS I AM
SENSITIVE TO AS WELL IS TRYING
TO GIVE TOO MUCH COMPLICATED
INFORMATION IN THIS FORMAT.
THOSE ARE INTERESTING,
UNDERSTANDING HOW THE FORECAST
EVOLVES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
YEAR IS IMPORTANT AS WELL.
>> GREAT.
WITH THAT, I AM NOT SEEING
ADDITIONAL HANDS.
ANYBODY FEEL FREE TO JUMP IN IF
YOU HAVE LAST QUESTIONS.
WE HAVE REACHED THE END OF THE
AGENDA.
I DON'T THINK THIS NEEDS A VOTE
FOR ACCEPTING.
I THINK IT IS FOR UNDERSTANDING
AND THE 2021 ACTUALS.
THIS IS A REALLY EXCITING
PRESENTATION AND I HOPE MEMBERS
OF THE VIEWING PUBLIC VIA
SEATTLE CHANNEL HAVE FOUND THIS
INTERESTING.
LOOKING FORWARD TO HEARING FROM
YOU ALL IN APRIL.
APRIL 8, WE WILL RECEIVE ACTUAL
REVENUES FOR -- REVISED
REVENUES FOR 2022 AS WELL AS
INITIAL FORECAST FOR 2023 AND
2024.
WE ARE GOING TO BE WORKING ON
MAKING SURE THERE IS THE
ABILITY FOR COMMENT AT THESE
MEETINGS AND WANT TO EXTEND A
HUGE THANK YOU TO THE SEATTLE
CHANNEL FOR BEING HERE AND
STREAMING THIS LIVE.
YOU GOT BREAKING NEWS TODAY,
FOLKS.
FUTURE MEETINGS, WE'LL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO HAVE ECONOMIC
REVENUE PRESENTATIONS AGAIN
FOLLOWING THE ECONOMIC REVENUE
PRESENTATIONS AND ANY
SUBSEQUENT REPORTS, WE WILL
REPOST TO THE FINANCE AND
HOUSING COMMITTEE MEETINGS AND
COMMUNITY MEMBERS ARE INVITED
TO CALL IN AND PROVIDE PUBLIC
TESTIMONY TO THOSE AS WELL.
IF THERE IS NO OBJECTION,
PLEASE JOIN ME IN THANKING THE
NEW ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST
COUNCIL TEAM FOR ALL THE
PRESENTATION TODAY.
I AM SEEING LOTS OF APPLAUSE.
WE ARE ABOUT 15 MINUTES OVER.
THANKS FOR YOUR GENEROUS TIME
AND THANKS FOR THE ROBUST
INFORMATION.
WE LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING YOU
ALL ON APRIL 8. WITH THAT, THE
MEETING IS ADJOURNED.
TAKE CARE EVERYONE.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.