>>> TODAY IS WEDNESDAY, MAY 17,
2023, AND THE TIME IS 9:33 A.M.
THE MEETING WILL COME TO ORDER.
I'M TERESA MOSQUEDA, CHAIR.
PLEASE CALL ROLL.
>> HERBOLD.
>> HERE.
>> LEWIS.
>> CHAIR?
>> PRESENT.
>> WE WILL NOTE THE OTHER
COUNCILMEMBERS WHEN THEY JOIN.
BELIEVE THAT COUNCILMEMBER LEWI
WILL BE JOINING US MOMENTARILY.
WE DO HAVE A FULL AGENDA TODAY.
THANK YOU FOR JOINING US
VIRTUALLY AND IN PERSON TO
CONTINUE TO HELP TO REDUCE ANY
COMMUNICABLE DISEASES, INCLUDIN
THE FLU, AND IT HAPPENS TO BE A
HIGH RATES THIS YEAR, AND
CLAIMING MORE LIVES THAN USUAL.
ONGOING CASES OF THE COVID-19
VIRUS, ALTHOUGH, WE ARE VERY
THANKFUL THE RATES OF
HOSPITALIZATION AND INFECTIONS
CONTINUE TO GO DOWN. GOOD
MORNING, COUNCILMEMBER LEWIS. W
NOTED YOU WOULD BE JOINING US
SOON.
>> GOOD MORNING.
>> COUNCILMEMBER LEWIS IS
PRESENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
OPERATE IN A HYBRID FASHION,
ENCOURAGING PEOPLE TO DIAL IN
REMOTELY OR PROVIDE PUBLIC
COMMENT IN PERSON. YOU ARE
WELCOME TO DO THAT. IN THE
MEETINGS, WE WANT TO ALWAYS MAK
SURE WE ENCOURAGE FOLKS TO
PARTICIPATE ONLINE, ESPECIALLY
IF THEY DON'T FEEL WELL. IN THE
FINANCE AND HOUSING COMMITTEE,
THERE'S AN UPDATE ON THE GENERA
FUND FINANCIAL PLAN AND AN
UPDATE ON THE OFFICE OF ECONOMI
REVENUE FORECAST PROJECTIONS,
AND THE CITY BUDGET OFFICE, AND
BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A
RESPONSIBILITY FOR OVERSEEING
DIFFERENT STREAMS OF REVENUE.
THIS IS OUR OPPORTUNITY TO DO
THE REVENUE FORECAST AND REPORT
OUT. WE ALWAYS HAVE THESE
MEETINGS FOLLOWING OUR QUARTERL
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC AND REVENUE
FORECAST PROJECTIONS. TODAY IS
THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY THAT WE
HAVE HAD TO HEAR A REPORT BACK
ON THE APRIL FORECAST. THEN, TH
LAST TWO ITEMS WE WILL HAVE IS
DISCUSSION AND POSSIBLE VOTE. M
HOPE IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO
VOTE ON THE CARRY FORWARD AND
EXCEPTIONS BILL. IF THERE IS NO
OBJECTION, TODAY'S AGENDA WILL
BE ADOPTED. HEARING NO
OBJECTIONS. THE AGENDA IS
ADOPTED. COLLEAGUES, I DID WANT
TO NOTE FOR THE RECORD BEFORE
PUBLIC COMMENT, I WILL BE ASKIN
TO TAKE THE OFFICE OF ECONOMIC
REVENUE FORECAST AND CITY BUDGE
OFFICE ITEM FIRST. I LEAVE IT'S
AGENDA ITEM NUMBER TWO, AND THE
GOING BACK TO ONE, THE GENERAL
FUND FINANCIAL PLAN, AND THEN
THE CENTRAL STAFF REPORT OUT
FROM TOM. HEARING NO OBJECTION,
WE WILL HAVE THE DIRECTOR BEN
NOBLE, AND THE TEAM FROM CITY
BUDGET OFFICE AT THE BEGINNING.
OKAY, WE DO HAVE THE AT LEAST
ONE PERSON SIGNED UP FOR PUBLIC
COMMENT. ON TODAY'S PUBLIC
COMMENT, WE WILL HEAR FROM
ANYBODY WHO DIALS IN. TWO
MINUTES TO PROVIDE YOUR PUBLIC
COMMENT, AND YOU WILL HEAR A
CHIME WHEN THERE IS A -- WHEN
THERE IS NO -- WHEN YOUR TIME I
RUNNING OUT. THAT'S YOUR
INDICATION TO WRAP IT UP. AT
THIS POINT, I SEE KATIE WILSON
ON THE LINE. GOOD MORNING,
KATIE. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US
THIS MORNING. DO WE HAVE KATIE?
>> OH, YES, HEY, CAN YOU HEAR
ME?
>> OH, GOOD MORNING.
>> HI, GOOD MORNING. HELLO,
COUNCILMEMBERS. KATIE WILSON
SPEAKING ON BEHALF OF THE
TRANSIT RIDERS UNION. WE ARE
VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE CITY
BUDGET OFFICE'S DIRECTION TO
DEPARTMENTS TO HOLD BACK $14
MILLION IN JUMP START SPENDING
THIS YEAR. WE UNDERSTOOD THE
CITY'S COMMITMENT WAS TO
MAINTAIN THE $220 MILLION
BASELINE OF INVESTMENTS
ESTIMATED TO BE AVAILABLE IN
2023 WHEN IT WAS PASSED IN 2020
WE UNDERSTAND THE REVENUE FROM
JUMP START ARE STILL COMING IN
OVER THE BUDGETED EXPENDITURES.
WE DON'T THINK THERE'S ANY
REASON TO DEPRIVE THE VITAL
PROGRAMS OF THE FUNDING THEY
HAVE BEEN COUNTING ON. IT WILL
HAVE A DIRECT AND NEGATIVE
IMPACT ON THE COMMUNITIES THAT
THE CITY OF SEATTLE COMMITTED T
SERVING WITH THE FUNDS. THESE
CUTS WOULD REDUCE THE AFFORDABL
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT, REDUCE
SMALL BUSINESS SUPPORT, AND WOR
FORCE DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS, AND
REDUCE FUNDING FOR THE
COMMUNITY-BASED ORGANIZATIONS
THAT ARE BUILDING CAPACITY,
ACQUIRING LAND, AND DOING
CAPITAL PROJECTS, AND DELAY OR
DERAIL THE PROJECTS FOR THE
CLIMATE RESILIENCE HUBS AND
CONVERT THE HOMES TO ELECTRIC
HEAT. IN JUST A FEW MONTHS, THE
AUGUST REF KNEW FORECAST WILL
GIVE THE CITY A MUCH FULLER
REVENUE PICTURE. WE URGENTLY AS
YOU TO REMOVE THE HOLDS ON
FUNDING FOR THE DEPARTMENTS
FUNDED BY JUMP START REVENUES
AND WORK WITH THE COMMUNITY
AFTER THE AUGUST REVENUE
FORECAST IS KNOWN TO
COLLECTIVELY ADDRESS ANY NEAR
TERM REVENUE GAPS. THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH, KATIE.
DON'T SEE ANYONE SIGNED UP IN
PERSON. IS THERE ANYBODY ELSE
INTERESTED IN PROVIDING PUBLIC
COMMENT ON THE LINE THAT WE MAY
NOT HAVE LET IN YET? ALL RIGHT.
THANK YOU SO MUCH, AND IF YOU D
HAVE ADDITIONAL PUBLIC COMMENTS
YOU WOULD LIKE TO PROVIDE, YOU
CAN ALWAYS SEND THEM TO
COUNCIL@SEATTLE.GOV. I BELIEVE
WE WILL -- OOPS, SORRY. I'
GETTING A MESSAGE FROM SOMEONE
THEY ARE TRYING TO DIAL IN, AND
THEY ARE NOT ABLE TO. IF THERE'
ANY CONCERN WITH OUR PUBLIC
COMMENT OPTIONS, AND PEOPLE WAN
TO CONTINUE TO DIAL IN, LET'S
LEAVE THE SCREEN OPEN FOR A
LITTLE BIT, IN CASE THERE IS A
GLITCH OF SOME SORT. WITH THAT,
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MOVE ON.
OH, I DO SEE JESSE SIMPSON.
JESSE SIMPSON? AND KATIE
GARROW. WE WILL GIVE IT A MINUT
HERE. OKAY, WE CAN COME BACK TO
ANYONE WHO WANTS TO PROVIDE
PUBLIC COMMENT. AGENDA ITEM
NUMBER TWO, MADAME CLERK, CAN
YOU PLEASE READ IT INTO THE
RECORD?
>> [ INAUDIBLE ] --
>> ANYBODY ELSE FROM YOUR TEAM
AT THE OFFICE OF ECONOMIC
REVENUE FORECAST. THANK YOU FOR
THE WORK THAT YOU DO. EVERY
QUARTER WE HEAR FROM THE OFFICE
OF ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST ON
THE PROJECTIONS THAT COME IN,
AND WE HAVE A CHANCE TO HEAR
FROM FOLKS IN THE SUBSEQUENT
COUNCILMEMBERS PARTICIPATE IN.
THIS IS THE FIRST CHANCE WE HAV
HAD TO HEAR FROM THE OFFICE OF
THE APRIL FORECAST AND FROM THE
CITY BUDGET OFFICE ON THE
ADDITIONAL REVENUE STREAMS UNDE
THEIR PER VIEW FOR A FULLER
PICTURE OF THE REVENUE FORECAST
DIRECTOR NOBLE, BEFORE I TURN I
OVER TO YOU, I DO SEE ONE MORE
PERSON FOR PUBLIC COMMENT. I
WILL ALLOW THEM TO GO FOR THEIR
TWO MINUTES. JESSE? THANK YOU
FOR DIALING IN. SORRY FOR ANY
TECHNICAL ISSUES ON OUR HAND.
PLEASE GO AHEAD. YOU HAVE TWO
MINUTES.
>> HEY. HEY, COUNCILMEMBERS,
THANK YOU FOR THE OPPORTUNITY T
TESTIFY HERE TODAY. I'M JESSE
SIMPSONS POLICY MANAGER FOR THE
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT CONSORTIUM.
ABOUT TO SEND IN A LETTER
REGARDING OUR CONCERNS ABOUT TH
JUMP START SPENDING PLAN FOR
2023, AND SPECIFICALLY FOR THE
$14 MILLION HOLD THAT WE HEARD
DEPARTMENTS HAVE BEEN -- $14
MILLION IN HOLD BACK IN SPENDIN
THAT THE DEPARTMENTS HAVE BEEN
DIRECTED. WE THINK THAT VIOLATE
SOME OF THE AGREEMENTS AND
BUDGET PROCESS TO ALLOW FOR JUM
START TO TEMPORARILY FILL A GAP
IN THE 2023-2024 GENERAL FUND.
WE THINK THAT NEEDS TO RETAIN
THE COMMITMENT TO THE ORIGINAL
JUMP START SPIN PLAN,
MAINTAINING THE BASELINE OF THE
JUMP START INVESTMENT, ESTIMATE
TO BE AVAILABLE IN 2023 WHEN TH
TAX WAS ORIGINALLY PASSED, AND
TO REPLENISH THE JUMP START
EQUITY AND INVESTMENT PRIORITY
IF THE GENERAL FUND REVENUE IS
HIGHER THAN THE ADOPTED BUDGET.
WITH THIS APRIL REVENUE FORECAS
SHOWING 2023 GENERAL FUND COMIN
IN AT 74 MILLION, HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED, WE SEE NO REASON T
DIRECT THE DEPARTMENTS TO
UNDERSPEND THE REVENUES IN 2023
REFLECTING AN ANTICIPATED
REDUCTION IN JUMP START REVENUE
ITSELF. ESPECIALLY WHEN THE
FULLER REVENUE PICTURE WILL BE
KNOWN IN AUGUST, JUST A FEW
MONTHS. THESE HAVE A DIRECT
IMPACT ON THE COMMUNITIES THAT
SERVE SEATTLE AND COMMITTED TO
SERVING WITH THE EQUITY FOCUSED
ON THE INVESTMENTS IN THE JUMP
START SPIN PLAN, AND IT WILL
HAVE A TANGIBLE NEGATIVE EFFECT
ON OUR COMMUNITY. I URGE YOU TO
REMOVE THE HOLDS ON FUNDING.
THANK YOU FOR WORKING WITH US.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH, JESSE.
WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THA
LETTER YOU MENTIONED. WITH THAT
WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MOVE IT ON
OVER TO OUR ECONOMIC AND REVENU
FORECAST DIRECTOR, DIRECTOR BEN
NOBLE, AND OF COURSE, THE TEAM
FROM CITY BUDGET OFFICE ON THE
LINE WITH US AS WELL. WE WILL
TURN IT OVER TO YOU FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL CONTEXT TO ROUND OUT
THE APRIL REVENUE FORECAST
PROJECTIONS. GOOD MORNING,
DIRECTOR NOBLE.
>> GOOD MORNING, CHAIR, AND
THANK YOU FOR THE INTRODUCTION.
I'M GOING TO DIVE RIGHT INTO
THIS. I'M JOINED BY JAN DURAS
AND SCENE THOMPSON, AND I WILL
TURN IT OVER TO THE BUDGET
OFFICE FOR A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
SPECIALIZATION, AND CAN THEN MA
CALL ON OTHERS IN TERMS OF
ADDRESSING THE QUESTIONS. NEXT
SLIDE. SO THIS PRESENTATION IS
LARGELY A SHORTENED VERSION OF
THE ONE WE PROVIDED TO THE
ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST
COUNCIL, AND AGAIN, IF YOU
RECALL, REPRESENTATIVES FROM
BOTH THE LEGISLATIVE AND
EXECUTIVE BRANCHES, AND WE
PRESENTED THE APRIL FORECAST
UPDATE IN APRIL. WE ARE
DELIVERING IT TO YOU NOW. ONE O
THE THINGS I WANT TO HIGHLIGHT,
THE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS THAT
UNDERLINE OUR FORECAST UPDATE
ARE ESSENTIALLY FROM THE MIDDLE
OF MARCH. WE PROCESS FOR A
COUPLE OF WEEKS AND DELIVERTHE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF APRIL.
WE ARE NOW INTO, YOU KNOW, THE
MIDDLE OF MAY OR SO. THERE'S
BEEN TIMES SINCE MAKING THE
INITIAL PRESENTATION, AND MUCH
OF WHAT I'M GOING TO PRESENT,
IT'S UNCHANGED, AND I'M INTENDE
TO PRESENT IT WITH THE CONTEXT
THAT WAS THEN PRESENT WHEN WE
DEVELOPED THE APRIL FORECAST,
AND THAT SAID, I WILL COME BACK
AT THE END AND MAKE A FEW
COMMENTS ABOUT WHAT HAS
TRANSPIRED SINCE WE DEVELOPED
THE FORECAST. JUST IN TERMS OF
BROADER CONTENT, RECALLING THAT
THE LAST FORECAST BEFORE APRIL
WAS ONE THAT WE DELIVERED IN
NOVEMBER TO THE CITY COUNCIL AS
YOU WERE DELIBERATING AND TAKIN
FINAL BUDGET ACTIONS, BASED ON
INFORMATION ESSENTIALLY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. WE ARE
BASICALLY FIVE MONTHS ON BY THE
TIME WE DID THE APRIL FORECAST.
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME HA
PASSED. HIGHLIGHTED ON THIS
PAGE, WE WILL GIVE A GENERAL
ECONOMIC UPDATE, AND WHAT
TRANSPIRED SINCE NOVEMBER, AND
IT'S GOING TO FEED THE APRIL
FORECAST. THEN WE WILL LOOK AT
BOTH, JUST ONE SLIDE EACH, THE
NATIONAL FORECAST, AND WE USE A
NATIONAL FORECAST TO DEVELOP OU
REGIONAL FORECAST, AND THE
NATIONAL FORECAST PROJECTING
JOBS, EMPLOYMENT, INCOME,
INFLATION, AND OUT FOR SEVERAL
YEARS, FEEDING INTO THE REGIONA
MODEL THAT DOES THE SAME, AND
USING THE REGIONAL MODEL FOR TH
FORECASTING ITSELF. WE WILL TAL
ABOUT IT AND DIVE INTO THE
REVENUE FORECAST THEMSELVES, AN
FIRST THE GENERAL FUND. THEN,
SOME KEY NONGENERAL REVENUE FUN
RESOURCES. PARTICULARLY JUMP
START AND REACH, BOTH OF WHICH
ARE SIGNIFICANT REVENUE STREAMS
AND YOU WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
COMPONENTS OF THE FORECAST
UPDATE. AS I MENTIONED AT THE
END, COME BACK AND JUST GIVE YO
A COUPLE OF HIGHLIGHTS OF WHAT
HAS HAPPENED REALLY SINCE APRIL
FOR THE PIECES THERE THAT ARE
RELEVANT. NEXT SLIDE. ONE MORE.
SO BASICALLY, BASICALLY AS WE
WERE DEVELOPING THE APRIL
FORECAST, RELATIVE TO NOVEMBER,
THINGS WERE AND ARE BETTER IN
THE SENSE THAT WE HAD THE
FORECAST THAT UNDERLINED THE
NOVEMBER ESTIMATES, AND ASSUMIN
WE WILL FALL INTO THE MINOR
RECESSION IN THE FIRST TWO
QUARTERS OF THIS YEAR, 2023, AN
WE WOULD FINISH WEAKLY IN 2022.
THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN. THE LATE
THIRD QUARTER AND FOURTH QUARTE
WERE STRONG, NATIONALLY AND
REGIONALLY. NATIONALLY, ADDING
300,000 JOBS A MONTH. INFLATION
WAS AS HIGH AS 9% LOCALLY IN
JUNE AND EVEN NATIONALLY EXCUSE
ME. IT HAD FALLEN TO 7.5 IN
NOVEMBER. FEBRUARY DOWN TO 6.0%
AND THEN FELL AGAIN IN THE MOST
RECENT ANNOUNCEMENTS. WE ARE
GETTING A STRONGER JOB GROWTH.
INFLATION WAS HIGH, BUT COMING
DOWN. SIGNIFICANT RISKS APPAREN
IN THE TIME FRAME. THE SILICON
VALLEY BANK AND SIGNATURE BANK
HAD JUST FAILED. IN GENERAL, TH
SENSE IT WAS GOING TO TIGHTEN
THE LENDING MARKETS AND WOULD B
HARDER TO BORROW MONEY, THE
EFFECT OF SLOWING THE ECONOMY
OVERALL. IN FACT, WE HAD SEEN
THAT STARTING TO HAPPEN, AND WE
WILL SHOW YOU THE DATA AND GIVE
YOU A SENSE OF WHAT IS HAPPENIN
WITH THE LOCAL REAL ESTATE
MARKETS, AND SIMILAR PATTERN
NATIONALLY. IN TERMS OF RISKS,
ONE OF THE THINGS, THE STRONG
JOBS, GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS.
GOOD NEWS BECAUSE EMPLOYMENT
GROWTH IS ALWAYS GOOD. BAD NEWS
BECAUSE IT INCREASES THE
PRESSURE ON INFLATION AND IT IS
GOING TO LEAD THE FED TO CRANK
UP THE INTEREST RATES. HAT'S
SINCE THE APRIL FORECAST.
THERE'S SOME CONCERN THAT THE
STRONG JOB GROWTH WILL LEAD TO
THE PRESSURE ON INTEREST RATES,
AND THE LAST RISK THAT WAS -- W
IDENTIFIED IN APRIL, AND IT'S
NOW PRESENT, AND IT'S THE DEBT
CEILING AND CONCERNS IF THERE'S
AN AGREEMENT ON THAT AND WHAT
THE CONCERNS WILL BE IF THERE'S
NOT. OVERALL, BETTER THAN
FORECASTED, AND YOU WILL SEE
THAT IN THE NUMBERS. THE REVENU
FORECAST FOR THE REVENUE STREAM
ARE UP. WE DID BETTER AT THE EN
OF LAST YEAR, AND EXPECT TO DO
BETTER IN THE NEAR TERM. THERE'
RISKS OUT THERE. NEXT SLIDE. SO
THIS SLIDE HIGHLIGHTS A LOT OF
WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE
ECONOMY IS BEING DRIVEN AT
PRESENT BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE
BANK, AND THEN THE ACTIONS THEY
ARE TAKING TO TRY TO COOL THE
ECONOMY. ON THE LEFT, YOU HAVE
CHART THAT SHOWS IN ORANGE, THE
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE, AND THE
INTEREST RATE THAT THE FEDS
CHARGE TO BANKS, AND THE
INTEREST RATE THEY CHARGE. THE
30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE, IF YOU'R
GOING TO BUY A HOUSE, THAT'S TH
INTEREST RATE YOU WOULD PAY.
IT'S ALSO THE GENERAL SENSE OF
WHAT IT COSTS TO BORROW, PRIVAT
BUSINESS OR TRYING TO BUY A
HOME. THE LAST LINE, GRAY,
INFLATION. WE TEND TO THINK OF
THE ORANGE LINE AS THE CAUSAL O
DRIVING THE CHANGE. THIS PART,
MIDDLE OF LAST YEAR, THE FED
STARTED TO RAISE THE INTEREST
RATES. CONCERNS ABOUT THE TOP
LINE, THE GRAY, INFLATION AND
THAT IT HAD BEEN INCREASING AND
INCREASING MORE SHARPLY. THEY,
IF YOU WILL, DECLARED WAR ON
INFLATION, RAISING INTEREST
RATES, AND AT THE FEDERAL BANK
LEVEL, THAT HAD THE INTENDED
EFFECT OF RAISING INTEREST RATE
IN THE PRIVATE MARKETS, AND THE
MORTGAGE RATES WERE GOING UP,
AND THAT HAD THE DESIRED EFFECT
OF BRINGING DOWN INFLATION. IT'
HARDER TO BUY THINGS THAT
REQUIRE BORROWING MONEY. LESS
CAPITAL INVESTMENT THAT HAS THE
EFFECT OF COOLING THE ECONOMY,
COOLING THE AMOUNT OF DEMAND,
AND IN TURN, IDEALLY, BRINGING
DOWN INFLATION. IT'S WORKING
FROM THE FED'S PERSPECTIVE. NOT
AS QUICKLY AS THEY HOPED, BUT
INFLATION IS COMING DOWN, AND
THE ECONOMY HAS COOLED SOME. TH
CHART ON THE RIGHT HIGHLIGHTING
SOME OF THE ECONOMY MORE BROADL
COOLING. THIS IS THE MONTHLY JO
CREATION IN THOUSANDS THROUGH
MARCH. I HAVE DRAWN THE LINE FO
A QUESTION MARK ON IT BECAUSE
THROUGH THE END OF LAST YEAR,
YOU COULD SEE SORT OF A TREND
THAT THE JOB MARKET WAS COOLING
AND THERE WERE OBVIOUSLY SOME
SPIKES IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY,
AND SOME OF THE DATA HAS SINCE
BEEN CORRECTLY. IT'S STRONG, BU
IT HAS BEEN COOLING SOME. SOME
OF THE EFFECT IT WAS HOPING TO,
AND WE WILL SEE THAT AS WE GO
FORWARD. NEXT SLIDE. ONE OF THE
ELEMENTS WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT,
HOWEVER, AS STRONG AS THINGS
ARE, THERE ARE PARTICULAR RISKS
TO THE REGIONAL ECONOMY, AND
THEY HAVE A LOT TO DO WITH THE
TECH SECRETARY. LAST FALL, WE
SAW THE SLOWDOWN, AND IT'S MORE
APPARENT. THE CHART HIGHLIGHTIN
WHY IT'S A CONCERN FOR US IN TH
NORTHWEST REGION. THIS IS
COMPARING THE U.S., WASHINGTON
STATE, AND SEATTLE, AND IT'S
TAKING THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY
'13 AS AN INDEX, MEASURING IN
PERCENTAGE TERMS HOW MUCH HAS
EMPLOYMENT IN THE TECH SECTOR
GROWN ESSENTIALLY IN THE 11
YEARS, JANUARY 2013. THE U.S.
LEVEL, BLUE LINE, HEALTHY, NOT
REMARKABLE. THE STATE OF
WASHINGTON, IT'S GROWN BY MORE
THAN 50% OVER THAT TIME PERIOD,
AND YOU CAN SEE THE GREEN LINE
FOR SEATTLE, ESSENTIALLY 60%. W
ARE THE REASON THE STATE HAS HA
THE GROWTH. WE WERE PULLING THE
STATE WITH US IN TERMS OF THE
SHAPE OF THE GRAPH AND RATE OF
GROWTH. OUR ECONOMY, INSTEAD OF
60% OVER THAT TIME, THE SLOWDOW
IN THE SECTOR WOULD NOT
SURPRISINGLY HAVE NEGATIVE
EFFECTS HERE. AN EXAMPLE ON THE
RIGHT, OFFICE VACANCY RATES, AN
THE BLUE LINE IS THE U.S.,
STARTING WITH THE PANDEMIC, AND
THE NATIONAL LEVEL VACANCY RATE
WERE 10%, GOING UP 12% OVER THE
FOLLOWING THREE YEARS IN
SEATTLE, THE OFFICE MARKET WAS
TIGHT PREPANDEMIC. VACANCY RATE
5%. PEOPLE WERE BUILDING OFFICE
BUILDINGS, AND NOW THEY ARE ASK
SEE, IT IS IN EXCESS OF 13%. 14
AND GOING UP. GOING UP AS LEASE
EXPIRE AND PEOPLE DO NOT RENEW
THEM. THAT HAS, WE WILL SEE
THERE'S AN IMPACT ON THE
REVENUES DIRECTLY, AND ALSO, WE
ARE NOT GOING TO SEE THE
CONSTRUCTION IN THE OFFICE AND
COMMERCIAL SECTOR ANY TIME SOON
LIKE YOU WOULD. AGAIN, PER THE
GRAPH ON THE RIGHT, WE DON'T
HAVE THE DEMAND. OUR ECONOMY IS
PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE
TECH SLOWDOWN THAT HAS REALLY
TAKEN AHOLD IN THE LAST FEW
MONTHS. NEXT SLIDE. I WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT SOME MORE, TALKING
ABOUT EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN THE
REGION AND HOW UNEQUAL IT'S
BEEN. THIS IS SINCE JUNE OF LAS
YEAR. WE UPDATED SINCE THE APRI
FORECAST WITH MORE CURRENT
NUMBERS, AND BASICALLY THE SAME
PATTERN. WE HAVE HAD SIGNIFICAN
JOB GROWTH. 3 PLUS PERCENT SINC
JUNE OF LAST YEAR. GROWING IN
MOST SECTORS. WHAT IS
INTERESTING, NOT ALL SECTORS,
AND WHICH SECTORS. LEISURE AND
HOSPITALITY, THE LARGEST NUMBER
OF JOBS. THE SECTOR IN STRONG
RECOVERY. GOOD TOURIST SUMMER
LAST SUMMER, AND BY ALL
ACCOUNTS, BOOKINGS ARE STRONG
FOR THE COMING SUMMER. PEOPLE
ARE STAFFING UP THERE.
IMMEDIATELY BELOW, YOU CAN SEE
THE TECH SLOWDOWN VERY DIRECTLY
THE LOSS OF JOBS IN THE SECTOR.
ANOTHER PLACE INDIRECTLY, THE
PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS
SERVICES AT 6,000 JOBS, AND
THAT'S THE FOURTH BAR DOWN.
THAT'S STILL GROWTH, BUT THAT'S
THE SECTOR WITH ANOTHER PLACE
WITH THE TECHNOLOGY FIRMS ENDED
UP LISTED IN THESE CATEGORIES,
AND THAT WAS LEADING EMPLOYMENT
GROWTH, AND IT'S NO LONGER.
AGAIN, WE ARE SEEING THAT IT'S
VERY UNEVEN EFFECT HERE, AND IN
PARTICULAR, THE SLOWDOWN OF THE
TECH THAT IS PRETTY CLEAR HERE.
ALSO SEEING THE SLOWDOWN OF THE
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES SECTOR, AN
LIKELY RELATED TO HIGHER
INTEREST RATES. PEOPLE TAKING
OUT LESS WORK IN THAT INDUSTRY.
GIVING YOU A SENSE OF THAT. NEX
SLIDE. WE ARE GOING TO SHIFT NO
TO TALK ABOUT THE FORECAST AND
THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. THE
NEXT SLIDE. THE FIRST SHOWING
THE NATIONAL FORECAST, AND
AGAIN, THESE ARE THE FORECASTED
UNDERLYING REGIONAL MODEL, AND
ULTIMATELY, BASED ON THE
CONCURRENCE OF THE FORECASTED
AND REVENUE COUNCIL, WE ARE
USING THE BASBASED THE FORECAST
IT IN NOVEMBER, ASSUMING A
RECESSION IN THE FIRST PART OF
2023, AND THIS IS EMPLOYMENT,
AND WE WERE GOING TO SEE A
SIGNIFICANT EMPLOYMENT DROP
THROUGH 2023, AND THEN GROWTH
AFTERWARD. THE NEW BASELINE IS
ONE THAT, AGAIN, INFORMED BY TH
FACT THAT THE FOURTH QUARTER OF
LAST YEAR WAS QUITE STRONG, AND
EMPLOYMENT GREW BEYOND WHAT WAS
FORECASTED. THE EXPECTATION NOW
IS REALLY OF THE SOFT LANDING
THAT WAS DESIRED. THE END OF TH
FORECAST AS OF APRIL. SO, THERE
WAS GOING TO BE SOME MODEST
DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT. YOU KNOW
SOME SECTORS LOSING, AND SOME
SECTORS GAINING. THAT WAS GOING
TO PLATEAU OUT QUICKLY. ON NET,
WE WERE GOING TO SEE ALMOST NO
JOB GROWTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
YEARS, AND THAT'S REALLY SLOW
AND STEADY POSITION RATHER THAN
THE DROP AND THEN A FOLLOWING
INCREASE. BUT AS YOU CAN SEE, I
MEANT THAT IT WAS GOING TO BE
BETTER NEAR TERM, BUT SLOWER
GROWTH AFFECTING THE LONGER TER
FORECAST IN A NEGATIVE WAY. FOR
CONTEST, OR CONTEXT, EXCUSE ME,
THERE'S A PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO
IF THE RUSSIAN WAR ON UKRAINE
CONTINUED TO ESCALATE. YOU WOUL
GET INCREASING INTEREST RATES
AND -- OR EXCUSE ME, INCREASE I
PRICES LEADING TO INCREASED
INTEREST RATES AND A COOLING OF
THE ECONOMY. THE BOTTOM LINE,
THE NEW FORECAST WAS FOR A SLOW
GROWTH SCENARIO WHERE EMPLOYMEN
WOULD BE STEADY, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY DECLINING IN
SIGNIFICANT WAYS. NEXT SLIDE. W
THEN TRANSLATE THAT WITH THE
REGIONAL MODEL FOR THE REGIONAL
FORECAST, AND THE GENERAL SHAPE
ARE COMPARABLE. FOR US,
EMPLOYMENT IS SO MUCH STRONGER.
STILL NOT SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
GROWTH. YOU CAN SEE EMPLOYMENT
IS ESSENTIALLY FLAT LINING FOR
THE NEXT FEW YEARS, AND AGAIN,
AS ONE OF THE KEY DRIVERS, TECH
SLOWING DOWN, AND OTHERS, AND
COMPENSATING, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
DRIVE A GREAT DEAL OF GROWTH. S
AGAIN, WE ALSO RAN A PESSIMISTI
SCENARIO, AND AGAIN, CONSISTENT
WITH THE IDEA OF HIGHER
INFLATION BEING DRIVEN BY THE
OUTSIDE FORCES, AND WE THINK IT
OVERALL WOULD HAVE BEEN COOLING
SO THIS IS THE GENERALIZED
ECONOMIC FORECAST, AND
UNDERLINING WHAT THEY SHOW,
THINGS WERE GENERALLY BETTER IN
THE NEAR TERM, BUT IN THE LONG
TERM, EXPECTING SLOWER GROWTH A
THIS PERIOD OF HIGHER INFLATION
LASTS LONGER. THAT'S WHAT WE AR
SEEING. INFLATION IS MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WAS HOPED AND
THOUGHT FOR LAST NOVEMBER. THAT
WOULD LEAD FOR THE INTEREST
RATES TO BE HIGHER FOR LONGER,
AND NOT SO MUCH A DRAMATIC
COOLING, BUT A SLOW PERIOD OF
GROWTH. SO WHAT DOES IT LOOK
LIKE ON THE REVENUE SIDE? THAT'
WHERE WE SHIFT NEXT. NEXT SLIDE
THE SHIFT TO THE REVENUES, AND
FIRST OFF, IT'S THE GENERAL
FUND, AND I SEE THERE'S A
QUESTION. MAYBE BEFORE WE GO ON
>> THANK YOU. PLEASE GO AHEAD,
COUNCILMEMBER HERBOLD.
>> JUST A GENERAL QUESTION,
THERE'S AN ASSIGNED 25%
PROBABILITY FOR THE PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST, IS THERE A BASELINE
FORECAST PROBABILITY?
>> I BELIEVE IT'S 50 OR 55%. I
DON'T HAVE MY NOTES IN FRONT OF
ME.
>> THANK YOU.
>> MOVING ON TO REVENUES, THE
NEXT SLIDE IS FULL OF NUMBERS.
LET ME TAKE THE TIME TO SET THE
STAGE WITH THE MEAT OF THE
GENERAL REVENUE FORECAST. YOU
WILL NOTE, BOTTOM LINE, GOOD
NEWS HERE. HIGHLIGHTS THERE'S
MORE TO COME TO BALANCE THIS
SOME. IN TERMS OF HOW TO READ
THE SLEW OF NUMBERS, THE FIRST
COLUMN OF NUMBERS, THE 2022
ACTUALS. THAT'S HOW WE FINISHED
LAST YEAR, AND REALLY PROVIDING
IT AS A POINT OF REFERENCE, A
POTENTIALLY USEFUL ONE. THE NEX
IS THE REVENUE FORECAST THAT
UNDERLINES THE ADOPTED BUDGET.
THAT'S THE FIRST COLUMN UNDER
2023. THE FIRST IS THE 2023 NEW
NUMBERS, EXCUSE ME. THE THIRD
COLUMN IS THE CHANGE. ONE MORE
TIME, THE ADOPTED BUDGET, THE
NEW FORECAST, AND THEN THE
CHANGE, AND IMPLIED BY THE
FORECAST. SINCE IT'S A BIANNUAL
BUDGET, WE ARE DOING THE SAME
FOR THE NEXT SET OF COLUMNS FOR
2024. THE ORIGINAL BUDGET, WHIC
IS LARGELY FROM THE NOVEMBER
FORECAST. THE APRIL FORECAST
UPDATE, AND THEN THE CHANGE, AN
THEN THE LAST COLUMN, AND WE
HAVE ADDED THE TWO CHANGES, AND
YOU CAN SEE THE CHANGE OVER THE
TWO YEARS, AND WHAT I INTEND TO
DO HERE IS MOVE DOWN THE COLUMN
ITEMS THE REVENUE FORECAST IS
MOST DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR.
WILL TALK ABOUT THOSE AND SOME
OF THE OTHERS AND TURN IT OVER
TO DAVE AND OR ALEX TO TALK
ABOUT A FEW OF THEM. PROPERTY
TAX, AND WE HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST SLIGHTLY, AND IN
GENERAL, THE PROPERTY TAX IS
EXTREMELY EASY TO PREDICT. WE
KNOW IN ADVANCE WHAT IT WILL BE
THE RULES OF THE REVENUE
INCREASING BY 1%. WHAT IS
DRIVING THE CHANGE HERE IS
ACTUAL THE EMERGENCY MEDIC ONE
LEVY. THE REVENUES FOR THAT ARE
DISTRIBUTED TO THE CITY, AND TH
REST OF THE COUNTY, BASED ON OU
SHARE OF ASSESSED VALUE OF THE
COUNTY. BOTTOM LINE, OUR
ASSESSED VALUE DID NOT GO UP AS
MUCH AS THE REST OF THE COUNTY
RELATIVE TO OUR FORECAST, AND S
A LITTLE LESS REVENUE THERE, AN
THE PROPERTY VALUES IN THE CITY
DID NOT QUITE GROW AS FAST AS W
THOUGHT THEY WOULD. THE EFFECT
IS RELATIVELY SMALL. IT'S THE
SAME REASON FOR THE CHANGE IN
2024. RETAIL SALES, AND AGAIN,
WE FINISHED OVERALL ECONOMY
SOMEWHAT BETTER. THE FACE LINE
FOR 2023, FINISHING 2022
STRONGER. BASELINE FOR 2023 IS
UP SOME. INFLATION UP AS WELL.
THAT LEADS TO A HIGHER REVENUE
FORECAST FOR 2023 ON THAT SIDE,
AND COMPARABLE FOR BUSINESS AND
OCCUPATION TAX, AND WE FINISHED
THE YEAR STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED, AND LAST YEAR, AND
IN ADDITION, SOMEWHAT HIGHER
INFLATION WITH HIGHER DENOMINAL
REVENUES, AND THEN ALSO SOME
CHANGE IN THE SHIFTING OF THE
FOLKS WHO PAY ANNUALLY FOR
ADDITIONAL REVENUES ACCUMULATIN
IN '23 VERSES '22. PRIVATE
UTILITIES, UP A LITTLE BIT, AND
SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE TIMING
OF WHEN THE PAYMENTS OCCURRED,
AND PUBLIC UTILITIES, LARGELY
UNCHANGED, AND
COMMENT ABOUT PARKING METERS AN
COURT FINES, WHICH ARE DOWN
SLIGHTLY.
>> SURE, THANK YOU. PARKING
METERS ARE DOWN, LARGELY BECAUS
PAID OCCUPANCY IS DOWN. THE
QUESTION IS WHY IS THAT? WE
DON'T HAVE A COMPLETE ANSWER,
BUT IT'S DOWN ABOUT 6.6%. WE AR
TAKING THE ACTUALS THAT
OCCURRED, YOU KNOW, FROM 2022,
LOOKING AT THE DATA AND ASSUMIN
A DECREASE IN '23 AND '24. THE
COURT FINES, AN INTERESTING
STORY, BUT IT'S ALSO DOWN, AND
LARGELY BASED ON ACTUAL
PERFORMANCE IN 2022 BEING LOWER
THAN EXPECTED. THERE'S A VARIET
OF REASONS FOR THAT. ONE BEING,
I MEAN, THIS IS A COMBINATION O
THE NUMBER OF CITATIONS WRITTEN
AND THE PAYMENT COMPLIANCE ON
THE PART OF THE PUBLIC, AND BOT
OF THOSE ARE DOWN A BIT MORE
THAN WHAT WE HAD ORIGINALLY
FORECASTED. ANOTHER ISSUE THERE
IS THE BEGINNING OF COLLECTIONS
REFERRING CITATIONS THAT ARE NO
-- HAVE NOT BEEN PAID TO
COLLECTIONS, AND IT'S STARTED U
AGAIN. IT'S STARTED UP A BIT
LATER THAN ASSUMED IN THE
ORIGINAL FORECAST, LEADING TO A
FAIRLY LARGE DECREASE THERE.
>> THEN SHIFTING DOWN, AND
ANOTHER PLACE WITH SIGNIFICANT
INCREASES, GRANTS. $28MILLION I
ADDITIONAL GRANT REVENUE, AND
IT'S LARGELY TO DO WITH THE
TIMING EFFECT, AND THERE WERE
GRANTS THAT WE ANTICIPATED
RECEIVING REVENUES FOR, AND IN
2022, NOW FORECASTED TO ACTUALL
BE PAID OFF IN 2023. THE WAY TH
GRANTS WORK, THE CITY RECEIVES
THE MONEY, USUALLY AFTER THE
FACT, AFTER THE WORK IS DONE,
AND IT'S REALLY JUST A SHIFTING
IN TIME OF WHEN WE WERE GOING T
RECEIVE THE REVENUES, AND THEN
WILL GET BACK TO THAT IN A
SECOND. THIS IS JUST TO
HIGHLIGHT THE TOTALS. THE OTHER
KIND OF BIG INCREASE HERE WAS I
LICENSES AND PERMITS, AND THAT
WAS LARGELY A FUNCTION OF,
AGAIN, THE TIMING ONE, AND
BUSINESS LICENSE REVENUES, AND
FOLKS CAN RENEW THEIR BUSINESS
LICENSES, AND EITHER LATE THE
PREVIOUS YEAR OR EARLY THIS
YEAR. MORE FOLKS RENEWED EARLY
THIS YEAR THAN LAST YEAR. WE
LOST REVENUES RELATIVE TO WHAT
WE EXPECTED FOR 2022. ARRIVING
NOW IN 2023. THE NET EFFECT WAS
SMALL. WE DID GET TO THE BOTTOM
HERE WITH TWO TOTALS. ONE IS TH
TOTAL OF ALL YOU CAN SEE, THE
DIFFERENCES, ALMOST $75 MILLION
POSITIVE INCREMENT. HOWEVER, A
BIG PIECE OF IT WAS THE GRANTS.
THE GRANT REVENUES ARE REALLY
NOT GENERALY AVAILABLE TO BE
SPENT ON THE GENERAL CITY NEEDS
SO WE TOOK THE TOTAL AS WELL
TAKING OUT THE GRANTS SO YOU CA
SEE WHAT IS AVAILABLE FOR
REVENUES, IF YOU WILL, AND THAT
IS STILL IN EXCESS OF $46.6
MILLION FOR 2023, AND THEN FOR
2024, I'M NOT GOING TO WALK DOW
THE WHOLE COLUMN AGAIN, LARGELY
THE SAME PATTERN. IT'S EXACTLY
THAT, THE FORECAST FOR GROWTH.
MODEST GROWTH FOR 2024. WE ARE
NOT SEEING BIG CHANGES. IN FACT
OVERALL REVENUES, IF YOU LOOK,
ACTUALLY DECLINING. REVENUE
FORECAST FOR 2023, IN APRIL, AN
THAT IS 1.7 BILLION. FOR 2024,
1.66, SLIGHTLY LESS REVENUE
OVERALL. IT'S LARGELY FOR THE
FUND BALANCE TRANSFERS AND
GRANTS, AND STILL, GIVING YOU A
SENSE THAT WE ARE NOT GETTING A
GREAT DEAL OF GROWTH. INCREMENT
OF APPROXIMATELY 24 OR 25
MILLION FOR 2024. OVER THE TWO
YEARS OF THE BIANNUAL, A NET
INCREASE OF TOTAL REVENUES OF
JUST OVER 100, AND TAKING OUT
THE GRANTS, MORE LIKE 70. SOME
OF THIS IS REVENUE SHIFTED OUT
OF 2022, AND WHEN YOU GET THE
OVERALL, WE ARE JUST TELLING YO
THE REVENUE STORY HERE. WHEN YO
SEE THE OVERALL FUND BALANCE
PICTURE IN SUBSEQUENT
PRESENTATIONS, YOU GET AN IDEA
OF THE IMPLICATIONS. WE FINISHE
BETTER THAN WE WERE OR THOUGHT
WE WERE GOING TO FINISH IN 2022
AND FIRST PART OF '23 HAS BEEN
STRONG. WHAT YOU WILL SEE WITH
THE NEXT FEW SLIDES, THE GROWTH
IN THE LONG-TERM HAS BEEN
AFFECTED. IF THERE'S NOT
QUESTIONS HERE, I WILL MOVE TO
THE NEXT SLIDE WHICH DOES TALK
ABOUT LONG-TERM. SO JUST A POIN
THAT WE PROBABLY COULD HAVE MAD
IN NOVEMBER, BUT WANTED TO AT
LEAST EMPHASIZE HERE WITH THE
APRIL FORECAST, AND THAT'S THE
LONGER TERM GROWTH AND THE
EFFECT OF THE CITY OPERATING IN
AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE INFLATION
IS HIGH AND GROWTH IS RELATIVEL
SLOW. A NUMBER OF THE REVENUE
STREAMS AND PROPERTY TAX BEING
THE MOST OBVIOUS EXAMPLE, DON'T
KEEP UP WITH THE INFLATION.
PROPERTY TAX GROWING BY 1%, AND
INFLATION AT MOST MEANING 2%.
THE HIGHER INFLATIONARY
ENVIRONMENT, MEANING THE OVERAL
GROWTH AND REVENUE WILL NOT KEE
PACE. WE HAVE CREATED A WAY TO
TRY TO MAKE THE COMPARISON. TO
FIND THE BASELINE, AND OF THE
CORE REVENUES, WHAT WE DID HERE
WE TOOK OUT THE LIST OF REVENUE
ON THE PREVIOUS SLIDE, AND WE
TOOK OUT THE GRANTS, TRANSFERS,
AND THEN THERE WAS SOME LATE
PAYMENTS FROM THE PAYROLL
BASELINE. THE LIGHT GREEN LINES
TAKING THE 2022 ACTUALS OF THE
CORE REVENUES, AND THEN GROWING
THEM WITH THE PREDICTED
INFLATION, AND THAT IS HOW MUCH
WE EXPECT, AND IF WE WERE TO
KEEP PACE WITH INFLATION, WE
WOULD NEED OUR REVENUES TO GROW
EQUIVALENT TO THE LIGHT GREEN.
THE BLUE IS WHAT WE EXPECT
REVENUES TO GROW AT BASED ON TH
REVENUE FORECAST AND IN TERMS O
RELYING ON THE REGIONAL ECONOMI
FORECAST. WE ARE EXPECTING
RELATIVELY SLOWER GROWTH. WHAT
YOU CAN SEE, THE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS, W
DON'T EXPECT THE CORE GENERAL
FUND REVENUES TO GROW AT THE
SAME PACE AS INFLATION. THE
SPENDING POWER OF THE CITY'S
REVENUES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND
THAT'S UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR US
THE LAST TEN YEARS PLUS,
PREPANDEMIC, WE WERE GETTING
STRONG GROWTH, AND OUR REVENUES
WERE KEEPING AHEAD OF INFLATION
PARTLY BECAUSE INFLATION WAS SO
LOW. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS GOING TO BE
TRICKIER TO OPERATE AND BUDGET
IN, BUT JUST WANTED TO
HIGHLIGHT, THAT'S ONE OF THE
LONGER TERM IMPLICATIONS OF THE
NEW FORECAST. AGAIN, YOU WILL
HEAR ABOUT IT MORE, AND THE
SUBSEQUENT BRIEFINGS. NEXT
SLIDE. WE ARE GOING TO SHIFT TO
THE NONGENERAL FUND RESOURCES,
AND WE HAVE KIND OF THE FORMAT
OF THE TABLE THAT IS THE SAME
FOR THE COLUMNS IN TRACKING THE
DIFFERENCES FROM THE APRIL TO
THE ENDORSED NOVEMBER OR EXCUSE
ME, THE ADOPTED NOVEMBER
FORECAST. THE BLUE HIGHLIGHTING
THE REVENUE STREAMS THAT ARE TH
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE FORECAST
OFFICE, AND THEN THE GENERAL
REVENUE CATEGORY. THE OTHER IS
TRANSPORTATION. STARTING AT THE
TOP HERE, PAYROLL TAX, AND AS A
REMINDER FOR ULTIMATELY FOR
2021, SOME OF THE PAYMENTS WERE
MADE LATE, BUT IN TERMS OF THE
ACTUAL TAX OBLIGATIONS, PEOPLE
WERE OBLIGATED TO PAY TAXES OF
$290 MILLION IN 2021, AND THAT
FELL SIGNIFICANTLY. WE WILL TAL
ABOUT IT IN A MINUTE, TO $250
MILLION IN 2022. THAT IN
NOVEMBER, WE DIDN'T HAVE THE
YEAR-END RESULTS, AND WE DIDN'T
REALLY KNOW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN
THERE. WE DIDN'T UPDATE THE
FORECAST FOR NOVEMBER. WE NOW
HAVE DONE THAT. CONSISTENT WITH
REVENUES FALLING BACK TO 253
MILLION FOR 2022, FORECASTING A
MODEST GROWTH TO 263 MILLION IN
2023, REPRESENTING A SIGNIFICAN
DECLINE, RELATIVE TO THE
FORECAST AND THAT WAS THE BASIS
FOR THE BUDGET. I SEE A
QUESTION. COUNCILMEMBER LEWIS.
>> LEWIS?
>> HOLD THE QUESTION FOR NOW,
DIRECTOR NOBLE, IT'S ABOUT
SOMETHING ELSE. I JUST WANT TO
GET IN THE CUE WHEN YOU'RE DONE
ON THIS SLIDE.
>> SOUNDS GOOD. THANK YOU. VERY
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION, AND
AGAIN, THAT'S DRIVEN ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY FOR THE ACTUALS FOR
2022. TALKING ABOUT IT IN A
MOMENT. COMPARABLE FOR 2024. WE
EXPECT RELATIVELY MODEST GROWTH
A SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT IN THE
FORECAST, AND DECLINE OF ALMOST
60 MILLION, OR EXCUSE ME, ALMOS
$63 MILLION OVER THE TWO YEARS
AND THE PAYROLL FORECAST
ADMISSION, BETTER NEWS AND
APPARENT HERE FOR THE GENERAL
FUND. THE WAY THE ADMISSIONS TA
WORKS, THE REVENUES ARE
ESSENTIALLY RETAINED AT CLIMATE
PLEDGE, AND WITH THE INCREASE,
IT'S RELATIVELY HIGHER SHARE
GOING BACK TO THE CITY COFFERS
AND PREDICTED WITH THE CULTURE.
MODEST INCREASES FOR SHORT-TERM
RENTAL TAX. SIGNIFICANT DECLINE
IN REET. A WHOLE SLIDE ON THIS,
AND GETTING BACK TO THIS.
INTEREST RATES HAVING A DRAMATI
EFFECT ON THE VOLUME OF THE REA
ESTATE ACTIVITY, AND IT'S A TAX
THAT IS ONLY PAID ON THE REAL
ESTATE TRANSACTIONS. OBVIOUSLY
VERY SENSITIVE TO THOSE CHANGIN
DIE GNATTICS. IN TERMS OF
TRANSPORTATION SPECIFIC
REVENUES, MODEST CHANGES
OVERALL, AND SOMEWHAT NOTABLE
INCREASE IN COMMERCIAL PARKING
TAX, CONSISTENT WITH INCREASED
ACTIVITY, AND OVERALL, AND THEN
SCHOOL ZONE ENFORCEMENT DOWN
SOMEWHAT, AND DAVE, YOU MAY WAN
TO COMMENT THERE BECAUSE IT'S
BEEN A POINT OF INTEREST.
>> SURE. SO THE BIGGEST ISSUE
THERE, THE CITY INSTALLED NEW
CAMERAS, AND THE ANTICIPATION O
THE VOLUME OF THE CITATIONS NOT
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS NEW
INSTALLATION SITUATIONS, AND WE
ARE MAKING AN ADJUSTMENT FOR
THAT PRIMARILY.
>> SO, AGAIN, OVERALL, COMBININ
SORT OF THE LAST COLUMN, AND YO
CAN SEE THE SIGNIFICANT DECLINE
IN PAYROLL TAXES REET, AND
MODEST INCREASES IN REVENUE
SOURCES. THE NEXT TWO SLIDES AR
ONE DEALING WITH PAYROLL TAX,
AND ANOTHER WITH REET. SO I
DON'T KNOW IF COUNCILMEMBER
LEWIS WANTED TO ASK THE QUESTIO
NOW.
>> LET'S DO THAT.
>> MY QUESTION IS REGARDING THE
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY TAX. I WILL
WAIT UNTIL WE GET DOWN THERE.
>> THIS IS THE PERFECT TIME FOR
THAT.
>> OKAY, I JUST WANTED TO ASK
WHAT YOU ATTRIBUTE THE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE OF 3. 3
MILLION TO IN TERMS OF THE
DIFFERENT FORECASTS ON
COMMERCIAL PARKING TAX. TO A
CERTAIN EXTENT, I HAVE BEEN LED
TO BELIEVE CAN BE A LITTLE BIT
OF A PROXY FOR DOWNTOWN RECOVER
AND RETURN TO WORK, OR JUST
PEOPLE GOING DOWNTOWN, SINCE
THAT'S WHERE A LOT OF THE
COMMERCIAL GARAGES ARE. I'M JUS
CURIOUS IF THAT IS FACTORING
INTO HOW WE ARE FORECASTING THE
RECOVERY AND WHAT THE TEA LEAVE
OF THAT MAY INDICATE.
>> WE DEFINITELY LOOK AT IT AS
LEADING INDICATOR OF THE
DOWNTOWN ACTIVITY. THE BIG CAUS
OF THIS IS REALLY, AS BEN
DESCRIBED EARLIER IN THE
ECONOMIC MOVEMENT OF EXPECTED
RECESSIONS, WE HAD BUILT IN AN
ASSUMPTION OF2023, AND
LARGELY REMOVING IT. THAT'S
LARGELY THE CAUSE.
>> GREAT, THANK YOU FOR THAT.
JUST ONE MORE QUESTION, AND TO
CLARIFY, CAN THE DIRECTOR OR
MAYBE DAVE REMIND US WHAT THE
APPLICABLE USE IS FOR COMMERCIA
PARKING TAXES ARE. I KNOW IT'S
THE GENERAL FUND, ADJACENT,
NONGENERAL FUND SOURCE THAT IS
SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED. CAN YOU
REMIND THE COMMITTEE?
>> SURE. IT'S RESTRICTED BY
STATE LAW FOR TRANSPORTATION
PURPOSES. THERE'S A LIST OF
THINGS GOING INTO WHAT
TRANSPORTATION PURPOSES INCLUDE
IT CAN BE BROADLY USED, YOU
KNOW, ROAD REPAIR, POTHOLE
FILLING, CAPITAL, ET CETERA, AN
SO IT IS RESTRICTED TO
TRANSPORTATION PUMPS.
>> GREAT, THANK YOU.
>> SHARING WITH TO BACK UP THE
DEBT. A LOT USED ON DEBT
TRANSPORTATION SERVICES
PROJECTS. YOU CAN USE IT TO PAY
THE DEBT FOR THEM AS WELL.
>> THIS MAY BE A QUESTION FOR
CENTRAL STAFF, SO WE CAN TEE IT
UP FOR THE CONVERSATION TO COME
BUT GIVEN THE EBB AND FLOW OF
SOME OF THE REVENUE STREAMS, TH
GENERAL FUND BEING UP, JUMP
START BEING DOWN, AND THE
VARIOUS OTHER STREAMS, A LITTLE
BIT UP AND A LITTLE BIT DOWN,
AND MY UNDERSTANDING WAS THAT
ACROSS WE WERE LOOKING AT $8.8
MILLION REDUCTION ON THE WHOLE.
IS THAT CORRECT?
>> GOOD MORNING, ALY PENNUCCI
WITH CENTRAL STAFF. THAT IS
CORRECT. THE REASON WHY CENTRAL
STAFF SORT OF PROVIDED THAT
SUMMARY NUMBER IS IT'S SOMEWHAT
NUANCE BECAUSE AS DIRECTOR NOBL
AND DAVE DESCRIBED, NOT ALL OF
THE REVENUE SOURCES CAN BE USED
FOR THE SAME PURPOSES, BUT IN
AND 2024 ENDORSED BUDGET BY
SHIFTING THE EXPENDITURES
AROUND, IF THAT'S A TOPIC FOR
FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH THE
YEAR-END SUPPLEMENTAL BUDGET IN
SEPTEMBER ALONG WITH THE
PROPOSED ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE
BUDGET.
>> WE CAN HAVE A CONVERSATION
ABOUT THAT IN A BIT. WHILE I
HAVE THE MIC, I WANT TO SAY
THANK YOU TO COUNCILMEMBER
NELSON WHO JOINED US AWHILE
BACK. THANK YOU. WE HAVE THE
FULL COMMITTEE HERE TODAY. ANY
ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS ON THIS
SLIDE WHILE WE WERE ARE HERE
BEFORE WE GET INTO THE DETAILED
OVERVIEWS? OKAY, AND IF YOU CAN
BELIEVE IT, THIS IS A TRUNCATED
VERSION OF A 2.5 HOUR
PRESENTATION IN THE REVENUE
FORECAST COMMITTEE, AND THANK
YOU FOR THE SUMMARY HERE, AND
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS COMPLEX, AND
WE APPRECIATE THE CHANCE TO HAV
THE PRESENTATION AND THE REVENU
FORECAST COMMITTEE MEETINGS, AN
ALSO TO MAKE SURE THAT WE ARE
REPORTING IT OUT IN THIS COUNCI
FORUM, AND TO THE GENERAL PUBLI
AS WELL. AS A REMINDER, ALL OF
THE ECONOMIC FORECAST MEETINGS
ARE ALSO PUBLICIZED AND
AVAILABLE ON THE SEATTLE
CHANNEL. BACK TO THE DIRECTOR T
SUMMARIZE THE SUMMARY.
>> CONTINUING TO MOVE HERE. THE
NEXT SLIDE OR TWO WITH THE JUMP
START. OBVIOUSLY A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE PRODUCTION IN THE
JUMP START FORECAST. SO WE DO
WANT TO TAKE SOME TIME TO
EXPLAIN THAT. AGAIN, JUST
HIGHLIGHTING, AND SOMETHING THE
MENTIONED. THE REVENUES FELL
FROM, REVENUE OBLIGATIONS FROM
293 TO 253. IT'S VERY
SIGNIFICANT DECLINE, AND WE HAD
NOT EXPECTED THAT. WE HAD GOTTE
NERVOUS ABOUT IT TOWARDS THE
YEAR END, AND I WILL TALK ABOUT
WHY. THE REVENUE FORECAST FOR
2023 HAD BEEN 294 MILLION. GIVE
THAT WE TOOK IN 253 FOR 2022, I
WAS NOT A VIABLE FORECAST. WE
HAVE UPDATED IT TO APPROXIMATEL
263, BRINGING IT DOWN ABOUT 30
MILLION. HOW DOES -- HOW DID
SUCH A BIG CHANGE HAPPEN SO
QUICKLY? ONE OF THE THINGS TO
RECOGNIZE, MAKING THE REVENUE
SOURCE DIFFERENT FROM EVERY
OTHER IN THE CITY, CERTAINLY OF
THIS SCALE, AND COMING FROM
RELATIVELY FEW FIRMS. THEY ARE
THEMSELVES CONCENTRATED IN A
SINGLE SECTOR, TECH, AND IT GET
-- THESE FIRMS RECORD THEIR
ACTIVITIES IN DIFFERENT PLACES,
AND AMAZON IS AN EXAMPLE OF THE
TECH COMPANY, AND IT'S ACTUALLY
ENGAGED IN A LOT OF TRADE. YOU
CAN SOMETIMES SEE WHEN WE DIVID
IT INTO DIFFERENT SECTORS, AND
AT THE END OF THE DAY, I'M
TALKING ABOUT THE LARGE FIRMS
AND FIRMS LIKE THAT. ONE OF THE
THINGS WE FIGURED OUT IN TRYING
TO FIGURE OUT WHAT HAPPENED 202
TO 2022, THERE'S TWO POTENTIAL
KEY DRIVERS. ONE IS CHANGING
STOCK VALUES, AND IN THE TECH
SECTOR IN PARTICULAR, STOCK
RENUMERATION IS A BIG PART OF
COMPENSATION OR HAS BEEN
TRADITIONALLY. THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN TECH
STOCKS RUNNING UP IN DOLLAR
VALUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
2022 AND FELL DRAMATICALLY OVER
2022, AND THAT'S ONE ISSUE. WE
DID THE WORK TO SEE THERE'S A
DIRECT CORRELATION, AND
COMPANIES WHO HAD STOCK VALUES
FALLING THE MOST, WERE THE ONES
WHOSE PAYROLL TAX OBLIGATIONS
FELL THE MOST ON AVERAGE, IF YO
WILL, AND IN GENERAL. AN EFFECT
WE SAW, WORK FROM HOME. THE TEC
FIRMS HAVE BEEN BRINGING PEOPLE
BACK INTO THE OFFICE, AND WE
WERE ABLE TO TRACK THAT, USING
THE AGGREGATED CELL PHONE DATA.
WE CAN TRACK THE ACTIVITY IN TH
SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATIONS,
TRACKING WHAT IS GOING ON IN TH
NEIGHBORHOODS OF THE CITY,
SEEING, AGAIN, WITH THE
INCREASED ACTIVITY IN OFFICE,
THERE IS MARGINAL INCREASE IN
PAYROLL TAX REVENUES, AND THAT'
GIVING US THE BASIS TO TRY TO
FORECAST. WE OTHERWISE HAD NO
KNOWLEDGE OF THE TAX BASE OR
WHAT WAS DRIVING IT. SO WE HAVE
DEVELOPED A MODEL, AND ALL
CREDIT TO JAN ON THE FORECAST
OFFICE TEAM, AND SO WE ARE USIN
PREDICTED STOCK VALUES, AND
TRENDS IN OFFICE BEHAVIOR TO
DEVELOP THE FORECAST, REVISED
FORECAST FOR 2023. FOR '24 AND
BEYOND, USING THE REGIONAL MODE
AND WHAT IT SHOWS IN TERMS OF
THE GENERAL GROWTH OF THE
SECTORS. SO THAT IS, AGAIN,
LEADING TO THE REVISION OF 263
MILLION AND THEN MODEST GROWTH
IN THE YEARS THAT FOLLOW. SO
NEXT SLIDE. THIS SLIDE IS
DESIGNED TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT
THAT THE REVENUE FORECAST FOR
JUMP START IS REDUCED FOR 2023
AND 2024. THE GRAY HERE, THE
NOVEMBER FORECAST, BLACK
OBVIOUSLY THE 2022 ACTUALS, AND
THEN APRIL IS THE NEW FORECAST.
WE BROUGHT THIS REVENUE FORECAS
DOWN FOR '23 AND '24 WE EXPECT
MODEST GROWTH WITH THE OVERALL
MODEST GROWTH FORECAST. THAT
DOES APPLY TO THE NEXT FEW
YEARS, BECOMING AN ISSUE FOR TH
LONGER TERM PLANNING, AND
NOTABLY LESS REVENUES EACH AND
EVERY YEAR OF THE SIX-YEAR TIME
HORIZON FOR THE FINANCIAL
PLANNING. THAT'S OBVIOUSLY A
BUDGET CHALLENGE.
>> ON THIS SLIDE, THANK YOU,
DIRECTOR NOBLE. I DIDN'T HAVE A
CHANCE TO MAKE A DIRECTION, BUT
FOR FUTURE ANALYSIS, I THINK IT
WOULD BE HELPFUL TO LOOK AT THE
2020 PROJECTED REVENUE, COMPARE
TO THE NOVEMBER FORECAST AND TH
APRIL FORECAST, AND WE TEND TO,
YOU KNOW, BE VERY CONCERNED WHE
IT COMES IN LOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN THE CONTEXT OF
THE 2023 AND 2024 AND THE
CENTRAL STAFF MEMO, IT'S
IMPORTANT, I THINK TO HAVE
ANOTHER BAR ON THERE, AND
PERHAPS ON THE CENTRAL STAFF
SIDE TO TAKE OFF THE ECONOMIC
AND REVENUE FORECAST PLATE, AND
AS WE LOOK AT THIS BAR, IT WOUL
BE HELPFUL TO SEE WHAT OUR 2020
PROJECTED REVENUE WAS BECAUSE M
UNDERSTANDING IS THAT FOR 2023,
FOR EXAMPLE, WE WERE PROJECTING
THAT THERE WOULD BE ABOUT $220
MILLION IN JUMP START REVENUE,
AND THAT'S WHAT WE BUDGETED FOR
SO IT WOULD BE HELPFUL TO SEE
THAT FOR THE OUT YEARS, BUT
2023, FOR EXAMPLE, I THINK IT
WOULD BE HELPFUL TO PUT IN TO
CONTEXT, THE $220 MILLION
PROJECTED, BUDGETED FOR, AND
HELD OURSELVES AT THAT AMOUNT,
AND USED HIGHER-THAN-ANTICIPATE
REVENUE, OVER 220, ALLOCATED TO
THE GENERAL FUND TO ADDRESS THE
ONGOING IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC
CRISIS DUE TO COVID. SO, THAT
MIGHT GIVE US A SENSE OF BALANC
AS WE THINK ABOUT WHERE THE
INVESTMENTS FOR JUMP START WERE
PLANNED FOR, UP TO 2020 OR UP T
$220 MILLION FROM OUR CALENDAR
YEAR 2020 PROJECTIONS, AND THAT
HAVE PARALLELLED WITH EACH OF
THE YEARS. PERHAPS JUST A
REQUEST FOR CENTRAL STAFF. I SE
ALI GIVING THE THUMBS UP.
ANYTHING ELSE? THANK YOU FOR
MAKING THAT POSSIBLE. I KNOW
IT'S PROBABLY A RELATIVELY EASY
BAR CHART TO THROW TOGETHER.
COUNCILMEMBER HERBOLD, GO AHEAD
>> A QUICK CLARIFICATION. I KNO
YOU SAID IT CLEARLY, MADAME
CHAIR, BUT JUST THE ACTUAL
BUDGETED JUMP START PAYROLL TAX
FOR THE JUMP START ELIGIBLE
INVESTMENTS IF PLOTTED ON THE
2023 LINE, YOU'RE SAYING IT
WOULD BE, EQUAL TO OR ABOVE THE
FORECAST?
>> CORRECT. I WILL TURN IT OVER
TO CENTRAL STAFF.
>> THAT'S REALLY IMPORTANT.
>> IT IS REALLY IMPORTANT. IF I
HAD A CURSOR TO SHOW YOU. ON TH
2023 LINE, IF WE SLOTTED. THERE
WE GO. PERFECT. ALY WITH THE
CURSOR THERE. IF WE HAD THE 202
PROJECTED REVENUE BUDGETED IN
THE 2023 CALENDAR YEAR, EXPENSE
FOR JUMP START, STILL COMING IN
UNDER THE APRIL FORECAST
NUMBERS, AND WE STILL HAVE
SURPLUS JUMP START FUNDING, AND
THAT'S CURRENTLY GOING BACK INT
THE GENERAL FUND, PER THE
AGREEMENT REACHED WITH THE CITY
BUDGET OFFICE AND THE MAYOR'S
TEAM. I SEE THE CURSOR ON THE
LINE THERE. I WILL TURN IT OVER
TO ALY TO ADD THE ADDITIONAL
CONTEXT ON THAT.
>> CHAIR, THAT'S CORRECT. THE
ESTIMATE CENTRAL STAFF MADE WHE
ADOPTED THE PAYROLL TAX IN 2020
WAS $214 MILLION IN THE FIRST
YEAR OF THE TAX, AND WE ASSUMED
2% GROWTH PER YEAR. FOR 2023,
THAT'S ABOUT $220 MILLION OF
WHAT WAS ESTIMATED AND ASSUMED
FOR THE SPENDING PLAN, AND OUR
CONVERSATION, THE BUDGET ADOPTE
BY THE COUNCIL IN NOVEMBER OF
LAST YEAR, ALLOCATED ABOUT $220
MILLION TO THE JUMP START
SPENDING CATEGORIES, AND
ANYTHING ABOVE THAT, IT WAS
ALLOWED TO BE TRANSFERRED TO TH
GENERAL FUND.
>> TEMPORARILY.
>> RIGHT. FOR '23 AND '24, THE
FUND FLEXIBILITY ORDINANCE, AND
SO WITH THE JUMP START REVENUES
DECREASING, AND THE GENERAL FUN
INCREASING, AND YOU CAN SEE HOW
THE BALANCE COULD SHIFT,
ALTHOUGH, THERE'S OTHER
PRESSURES ON THE GENERAL FUND
WHEN WE GO TO THE NEXT ITEM AND
THE TRADEOFFS.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
>> COUNCILMEMBER, HERBOLD, DOES
THAT HELP?
>> VERY MUCH. THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU. GOOD MORNING,
COUNCILMEMBER NELSON. PLEASE GO
AHEAD.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH. I DON'T
KNOW IF THIS IS WHAT
COUNCILMEMBER HERBOLD WAS
ASKING, BUT MAYBE I WILL TRY TO
REPHRASE IT. I UNDERSTAND THE
IMPORTANCE OF PLOTTING THE 2020
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERFORMANC
OF JUMP START. THAT'S FINE, BUT
WE DID BUDGET ACCORDING TO THE
PROJECTED 2023 AND 2024 JUMP
START REVENUES. WHY IS -- SO
REALLY THAT'S WHAT WE SHOULD BE
WORKING OFF OF. WHAT DID WE
EXPECT FOR JUMP START IN THESE
CURRENT YEARS, AND WHAT ARE WE
GOING TO BE GETTING. IS THAT
SORT OF WHAT YOU WERE TRYING TO
GET AT COUNCILMEMBER HERBOLD?
>> IF I COULD JUST JUMP IN.
THAT'S NOT ACCURATE. WE DID NOT
BUDGET FOR THE FULL JUMP START
PROJECTED REVENUE TO GO TO ONLY
JUMP START.
>> I UNDERSTAND THAT. YEAH. YOU
ALLOWED FOR PART OF IT TO BE
USED FOR THE GENERAL FUND.
>> RIGHT. WHEN WE SAY THAT THE
IMPORTANCE OF LOOKING AT THE
2020 -- THANK YOU -- THE
IMPORTANCE OF LOOKING AT THE
2020 PROJECTED EXPENSES IS
BECAUSE IN THE YEARS 2023 AND
2024, WE HAVE ONLY BUDGETED TO
THAT AMOUNT. THE REST OF THE
FUNDING FROM JUMP START GOES
INTO THE GENERAL FUND. OF
COURSE, COUNCILMEMBER HERBOLD,
THINK THAT'S THE QUESTION FOR
YOU, BUT I WILL ASK CENTRAL
STAFF IF YOU HAVE ANYTHING
ADDITIONAL TO ADD TO THAT.
>> COUNCILMEMBER NELSON, I WILL
TAKE A SNAP HERE. I THINK WHAT
YOU ARE SORT OF ASKING FOR
CONFIRMATION ON, THE FULL AMOUN
OF PROJECTED JUMP START REVENUE
FOR 2023, BASED ON THE NOVEMBER
FORECAST, ARE BUDGETED IN THE
ADOPTED BUDGET. $220MILLION IS
APPROPRIATED FOR SPENDING,
CONSISTENT WITH THE JUMP START
SPENDING PLAN, AND THEN THE
REMAINDER WAS BUDGETED TO
SUPPORT THE GENERAL FUND
EXPENDITURES. IS THAT --
>> YEAH, I WAS JUST -- I WAS
WANTING TO MAKE SURE I
UNDERSTOOD COUNCILMEMBER
HERBOLD'S QUESTION PROPERLY.
>> I SIMPLY WANTED TO -- I WAS
SIMPLY TRYING TO UNDERSTAND THE
POINT THAT MADAME CHAIR WAS
MAKING AND ECHOING MY AGREEMENT
THAT WE NEED TO HAVE A BAR ON
THE CHART THAT NOT ONLY SHOWS
THE FORECASTED AMOUNT OF JUMP
START AND BOTH FOR NOVEMBER AND
APRIL, BUT ALSO WHAT WE ACTUALL
BUDGETED FOR THE JUMP START
SPEND PLAN EXPENDITURES, AND
THAT'S A BAR THAT IS MISSING. I
WE HAD THE BAR ON THIS CHART,
THAT WOULD SHOW IT'S ACTUALLY
BELOW, LESS MONEY THAN IS
FORECASTED IN APRIL TO BRING IN
>> THANK YOU. I WILL JUST NOTE
OVERLAPPING SPEAKERS ]
>> TEMPORARILY WE ALLOW FOR THE
MONEY TO BE USED FOR GENERAL
FUND EXPENSES AS NEEDED.
>> EXCELLENT. YEAH, THANK YOU S
MUCH. I WANT TO MAKE SURE THEY,
AGAIN, ACKNOWLEDGE IT'S A
REQUEST FOR CENTRAL STAFF, AND
NOT A MISSING COMPONENT OF THE
CHART GIVEN THE INDEPENDENT ROL
THAT THE OFFICE HAS. THE
BACK-TO-BACK PRESENTATIONS,
HELPING TO INFORM THE
DISCUSSIONS WITH THE EXECUTIVE
ABOUT THE FUTURE BUDGETARY
ACTIONS, AND WE LIKE TO PAIR TH
ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST
INDEPENDENT REPORT OUT WITH THE
STATUS UPDATE ON WHERE WE ARE A
WITH EXPENDITURES AND THINGS
LIKE THAT ON A QUARTERLY BASIS.
WE CAN HAVE VERY INFORMED
DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR
ASKING FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND CLARIFICATION.
WE WILL FOLLOW UP IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE PRESENTATION ON
THIS CONVERSATION, AND I JUST
WANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE AS WELL THA
THE INDEPENDENT OFFICE OF THE
ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST, I
BROUGHT IT UP, BUT YOU ARE NOT
MISSING IT. IT'S JUST A GREAT
IDEA FOR US TO ADD TO THE
CENTRAL STAFF AND COUNCIL
DISCUSSIONS COMING UP HERE SOON
>> YEAH.
>> OKAY.
>> THEN WE CAN TALK FURTHER
ABOUT IT, BUT LET'S -- NEXT
SLIDE. MOVING ON. CONSCIOUS OF
TIME. SO ALSO WANT TO TALK
ABOUT THE REET FORECAST. COMING
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL. I
WILL TALK A LOT FROM THE CHART
ON THE RIGHT. ONE OF THE CHARTS
THAT HAS LEFT AND RIGHT AXIS,
MEASURING TWO THINGS. ONE IS TH
BLUE LINES, SHOWING THE ACTUAL
AND THEN FORECASTED HOME SALES.
THE FORECASTS ARE THE SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER COLOR, AND THEN WITH TH
DOTS. SO WHAT IT SHOWS, AND IN
TERMS OF THE VOLUME OF HOME
SALES, A DRAMATIC DECREASE,
KICKING IN FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF LAST YEAR. WENT BACK, AND
DON'T NEED TO, BUT THE CHART
SHOWS THE INTEREST RATES. THE
SPIKE IN MORTGAGE RATES
DECLINING THE HOME TRANSACTIONS
IT'S FORECASTED WITH THE
INTEREST RATES TO BE HIGH. IT'S
FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT A LOW
LEVEL FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS,
ACTUALLY, AS YOU CAN SEE. THE
BLACK LINE IS A HOME PRICE
INDEX. IT'S SET AT 100 BEGINNIN
IN 2020, MEASURED ON THE RIGHT
SIDE, AND WHAT IT SHOWS, THE
PRICES WENT UP, AND MORE THAN
20%. AND THEN, EXPECTED TO COME
DOWN, BUT ONLY COMING DOWN
SLIGHTLY. THE TAXES ON
TRANSACTIONS AND TAX BASES.
PRICE TIMES QUANTITY. THE BLUE
LINES, FEWER QUANTITY AND FEWER
SALES. THE BLACK LINE,
SUGGESTING THE PRICE POINT HAS
NOT CHANGED AS MUCH AS YOU WOUL
THINK. WHAT APPEARS IN THE
RESIDENTIAL MARKET IN
PARTICULAR, THERE'S RELATIVELY
FEW BUYER BECAUSE THE INTEREST
RATES ARE HIGH. THERE'S FEW
SELLERS BECAUSE THE RATES ARE S
HIGH. IF YOU'RE ON AN EXISTING
MORTGAGE WITH A LOW INTEREST
RATE, YOU DON'T WANT TO SELL AN
LOSE THE MORTGAGE. THERE'S ALSO
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
EMPLOYMENT FOR SOME FOLKS.
THERE'S NOT A LOT OF BUYERS, AN
ALSO NOT A LOT OF SELLERS.
LEADING TO RELATIVELY STABLE
PRICES COMING DOWN, BUT NOT
FALLING DRAMATICALLY. WHAT HAS
FALLEN DRAMATICALLY, THE VOLUME
OF SALES. DROPPING OFF VERY
QUICKLY LATE IN THE SECOND HALF
OF LAST YEAR. ON THE COMMERCIAL
SIDE, WE ARE SEEING ALSO
REDUCING REDUCTION IN THE AMOUN
OF ACTIVITY. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT OF BOTH. I MEAN, IN TERMS O
PRICES AND QUANTITIES IT, AND I
TERMS OF QUANTITIES, JUST TO
GIVE YOU A SENSE, WE HAVE NOT
SEEN THE OFFICE TOWER SALE, AND
IT'S WELL IN EXCESS OF 100
MILLION IF ONE WERE TO SELL,
GOING ON A YEAR. THAT'S UNUSUAL
THERE'S NO BUILDINGS IN
DOWNTOWN, A LOT OWNED BY
INVESTMENT TRUSTS, AND
CLASSICALLY TURNING OVER
UNCERTAIN NUMBERS EVERY YEAR.
THERE'S SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OF
THE VALUE OF THE BUILDINGS AT
THE MOMENT BECAUSE NO ONE
UNDERSTANDS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO
THE OFFICES IN PARTICULAR.
BOTTOM LINE, WE HAVE SEEN A
DRAMATIC DECLINE IN REVENUES.
THE REVENUE FORECAST HAS TAKEN
IN MORE THAN 100 MILLION IN
2021. THE REVENUE FORECAST FOR
2023, 55 MILLION. ESSENTIALLY A
50% REDUCTION OVER A SHORT TIME
PERIOD. TO DATE, THE REVENUE
STREAM SUGGESTING THE REVENUES
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE YEAR
SUGGEST WE WILL STRUGGLE TO MEE
THE LOWER FORECAST. WE WILL
PROVIDE AN UPDATE IN AUGUST TO
DETERMINE IF IT NEEDS TO BE
REVISED. DRAMATIC EFFECTS ON TH
REAL ESTATE SIDE. IT'S USED A
LOT FOR DEBT SERVICE, AND IT'S
LARGE CAPITAL FUNDING SOURCE,
AND A LOT OF IT IS DEBT
FINANCED, MEANING IT'S RELATIVE
LACK OF FLEXIBILITY. BOTTOM
LINE, THAT'S WHAT IS HAPPENING.
THE FORECAST IS REFLECTED IN
SIMILAR NUMBERS AT THE STATE AN
COUNTY LEVEL. THEY ARE SEEING
THE SAME EFFECT, AND IT'S COME
DOWN AND COME DOWN DRAMATICALLY
>> SORRY, DIRECTO NOBLE, DIDN'T
MEAN TO INTERRUPT YOU. ONE MORE
COMMENT.
>> I WAS ABOUT TO WRAP UP.
PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> I MISSED MY CHANCE WHEN WE
WERE HAVING THE DISCUSSION IN
THE REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL ON
THE POINT OF BUILDING
CONSTRUCTION SLOWING DOWN, AND
WANTED TO MAKE A PLUG FOR ALL O
US WHO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
WORK NOT ONLY ON THE LEGISLATIV
BRANCH SIDE, BUT ON THE
EXECUTIVE SIDE, TO DO EVERYTHIN
WE CAN TO EXPEDITE THE
PERMITTING AND MAKE IT EASIER
FOR PLACES WHERE WE HAVE ALREAD
ALLOWED FOR DENSE, TALLER
BUILDINGS TO BE BUILT TO GET TH
PROCESSES THROUGH. WE HEAR
STORIES OF 18 MONTHS OR 2 YEAR
OR 3 YEAR DELAYS. IN LAST YEAR'
BUDGETS, WE TRIED TO ADDRESS
THAT WITH ADDITIONAL CAPACITY.
PERHAPS IT'S ON US WITH THE
PUBLIC POLICY PENS, BOTH IN THE
EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE BRANC
TO FIGURE OUT WAYS SO WE CAN
EXPEDITE THE CONSTRUCTION OF TH
BUILDINGS IF THEY ARE DESIRED T
BE BUILT BY THE BUILDERS IN THE
AREAS ALREADY PERMITTED. SEEMS
LIKE IT'S A GOOD
REVENUE-GENERATING OPTION AS
WELL. JUST WANTED TO MAKE THE
COMMENT BECAUSE I MISSED THE
CHANCE TO SAY IT IN THE REVENUE
FORECAST MEETING. IT'S NOT THAT
IT IS A STAGNANT SITUATION THAT
IS UNCHANGEABLE. IF THERE'S
LEVERS TO PULL OR PUSH TO ENSUR
MORE CONSTRUCTION, IF DESIRED,
CAN HAPPEN QUICKER, THAT SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD WAY FOR US TO
ENHANCE THE REVENUE THAT IS
UNFORTUNATELY PROJECTED TO BE
DOWN. ANY ADDITIONAL COMMENTS?
THINK DIRECTOR NOBLE SAID YOU'R
ON YOUR LAST SLIDE HERE? DO YOU
HAVE MORE?
>> ONE OR TWO MORE.
>> OKAY, GO AHEAD.
>> LONG-TERM FORECAST, AGAIN,
SIMILAR STORY. BRINGING DOWN TH
FORECAST FOR '23 AND '24 AND TH
LONGER TERM FORECAST. BECAUSE
IT'S A CAPITAL EXPENDITURE,
THAT'S BEYOND IT. THAT'S THE
HIGHLIGHT HERE. NEXT SLIDE. AND
THEN THIS IS THE LAST, AND JUST
AGAIN, THIS IS NEW INFORMATION,
AND SO I SAID AND PROMISED IT
WOULD COME AT THE END TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THINGS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED SINCE WE PROVIDED THE
APRIL UPDATE. MORE QUALITATIVE.
I MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE
PRESENTATION, AND APPARENT IN
APRIL, THERE WAS UNCERTAINTY AN
TURMOIL IN THE BANKING SECTOR
FOR THE TWO WEEKS AFTER WE DID
THE APRIL FORECAST PRESENTATION
THE INITIAL PRESENTATION, AND
THEN IT CALMED, AND IT HAS SINC
PICKED UP SOME. AGAIN, CONTINUE
TO BE CONCERN WITH THE REGIONAL
BANKS AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
BANKS, AND LESS CONCERN ABOUT
THE RUN ON BANKS, BUT THE EFFEC
IT WILL MAKE BANKERS NERVOUS,
AND IN PARTICULAR, LEAD TO THE
STRINGENT LENDING STANDARDS. NO
LENDING MONEY, IT'S HARD FOR
COMPANIES TO INVEST IN THE
CAPITAL, AND THEN THE LIKE. SO
THAT WILL HAVE A DRAG ON THE
ECONOMY. SOME OF THAT IS WHAT
THE FED WANTS, AND THAT'S ONE
WAY TO GET IT. THEY DON'T WANT
THE BANKING SECTOR TO BE
UNSTABLE, BUT THEY WERE TRYING
TO SLOW DOWN THE LENDING. THE
FED DID FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE
INCREASE IN MAY. THE
EXPECTATION, THEY ARE NOW GOING
TO HOLD AT THE 5.25 THEY ARE AT
AND WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
PERSISTENT INFLATION MAY BE THE
REASON TO INCREASE IT FURTHER,
BUT SOME HOPED THEY MAY NOT TAK
THE STEP, BUT THEY HAVE
>> OTHER BIG NEWS IN GDP GROWTH
SO THE FIGURES FOR THE FIRST
QUARTER COMING IN, ANNUALIZED
RATE OF 1%. THAT'S BETTER THAN
EVEN IN THE APRIL FORECAST. WE
WERE NOT EXPECTING THAT LEVEL O
GROWTH IN THE APRIL FORECAST,
AND IT IS NOT -- WE WERE
EXPECTING SOME GROWTH. SO IT'S
NOT WILDLY OFF. THE REALIZED GD
GROWTH OF 1%, CONSISTENT WITH
THE GENERAL NOTION WE ARE
SLOWING, AND WE WILL ENTER THE
PHRASE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOU
SLIDES, THE SLOW GROWTH PERIOD.
NOT A RECESSION, BUT A SLOW
GROWTH PERIOD. THE 1% GROWTH IS
QUITE LOW. ANNUALIZED, BUT IT'S
CONSISTENT WITH, IF NOT SLIGHTL
AHEAD OF THE UNDERLYING
FORECAST. AND THEN WE HAVE
CONTINUED TO EDGE UP SO 250,000
ADDED IN APRIL, AND SO, AGAIN,
JOB GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE
STRONG, AND THAT'S POINTED OUT
HERE, AND IT'S GOOD NEWS AT SOM
LEVEL, AND AGAIN, THE FED IS
CONCERNED THAT THE JOB MARKET I
GOING TO CONTINUE TO BECOME A
DRIVER OF INFLATION ITSELF, AS
EMPLOYERS ARE TRYING TO FIND
WORKERS. SO, TO WRAP UP, THE NE
ECONOMY STRONG THROUGH THE FIRS
QUARTER. WE HAVE CONTINUED TO D
WELL, AND INFLATION IS
PERSISTENT. SOME HIGHER THAN TH
FORECAST, AND THE FINANCIAL
MARKET INSTABILITY, IT'S
CREATING CONCERNS THAT CAN TIE
UP AND SLOW DOWN THE LENDING
MARKETS, AND AGAIN, THE LAST ON
I WILL ADD, CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT SINCE DRAFTING THE
SLIDE A WEEK AGO, AND I'M
GETTING EVER MORE NERVOUS ABOUT
DEBT CEILING AND WHERE THAT OR
WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO GET ACTION
ON THAT, AND THE CONCERN THAT W
MAY NEED TO SEE SOME LEVEL OF
DISTRESS IN THE FINANCIAL
MARKETS BEFORE SOME FOLKS ARE
MOTIVATED TO RAISE THE DEBT
CEILING. HARD TO KNOW. OBVIOUSL
NO DETAILS, BUT SENSE THERE'S N
PROGRESS MADE. SO OVERALL,
AGAIN, BIG PICTURE, REVENUE
FORECAST IS UP FOR THE GENERAL
FUND FOR '23 AND '24, AND DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR BOTH REET AND
PAYROLL TAX OVER THE SAME
PERIOD, AND ALL THE REVENUE
STREAMS, LOWER GROWTH OVER THE
PERIOD BEYOND 2024 THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THAT'S THE
PRESENTATION.
>> OKAY, GREAT. THANK YOU SO
MUCH. WE HAVE SPENT AN HOUR ON
THIS, BUT I WANT TO SEE IF
THERE'S ANY ADDITIONAL QUESTION
BEFORE WE GO TO THE CENTRAL
STAFF'S ANALYSIS AND ALSO JUST
ASK IF THERE'S ANY ADDITIONAL
CONTEXT THAT THE CITY BUDGET'S
TEAM WOULD LIKE TO PROVIDE.
OKAY, DIRECTOR -- PLEASE GO
AHEAD, JAN.
>> THIS IS DAVE FROM THE CITY
BUDGET OFFICE.
>> DAVE, I'M SORRY.
>> JUST TO SAY NO REAL -- JUST
TO POINT OUT THE CHANGES, THE
INCREASES ARE RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AND I WOULD
LIKE TO REMIND YOU, WHEN YOU
LOOK AT THE TWO YEARS, '23 AND
'24, IT'S QUITE FLAT IN TERMS O
THE TOTAL REVENUE AVAILABLE. SO
JUST A CAUTIONARY MOMENT THERE.
THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU. THANK YOU, DAVE.
ANY ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS? ALL
RIGHT, I'M NOT SEEING ANY. I
KNOW IT'S DENSE MATERIAL. THANK
YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE TO
PRESENT IT TO US. THE SLIDES
HAVE A LOT OF INFORMATION ON
THEM, AND IF PEOPLE HAVE
FOLLOWUP QUESTIONS, YOU KNOW
WHERE TO FIND OUR OFFICE OF
ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST.
WE ARE GOING TO NOW TRANSITION
TO AGENDA ITEM NUMBER ONE,
ALLOWING FOR CENTRAL STAFF TO
TAKE THE INFORMATION THAT WE
HAVE RECEIVED FROM THE OFFICE O
ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST,
AND THE CITY BUDGET'S OFFICE,
AND THEN HELP TO PROVIDE THE
ANALYSIS OF WHAT IT MEANS FOR
THE EXISTING BIANNUAL BUDGET AN
FUTURE YEARS TO COME, AND WE
LOOK FORWARD TO CONTINUING TO
PARTNER WITH CBO AND THE OFFICE
OF ECONOMIC REVENUE FORECAST AS
WE SEEK TO GET ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. I JUST WANT TO GIV
CATASTROPHE QUICK HEADS UP THAT
THE AUGUST FORECAST, RIGHT, THE
AUGUST FORECAST IS TRADITIONALL
MORE ON TARGET OR MORE ACCURATE
THAN OUR APRIL FORECAST, AND
DIRECTOR NOBLE, CAN YOU REMIND
US WHEN THE AUGUST FORECAST
MEETING IS AGAIN, IF YOU HAVE
THAT AT YOUR FINGERTIPS?
>> I BELIEVE IT'S THE TENTH.
>> OKAY.
>> YEAH, GETTING IT -- I DON'T
HAVE MY CALENDAR IN FRONT OF ME
A REMINDER, THE APRIL UPDATE IS
THE BASIS FOR THE PLANNING OF
THE BUDGET PROCESS. THE FORECAS
IN AUGUST UNDERLIES THE PROPOSE
BUDGET DELIVERED IN SEPTEMBER,
AND THEN ACCELERATING SLIGHTLY
TO GIVE YOU THE LAST UPDATE THE
MIDDLE OF OCTOBER, AND THAT'S T
INFORM THE COUNCIL'S FINAL
DELIBERATIONS.
>> WE APPRECIATE THAT, GIVING U
ADDITIONAL TIME BEFORE THE FINA
BUDGET IS WRAPPED UP FOR THE
NOVEMBER DELIBERATES. DIRECTOR
NOBLE WAS RIGHT. THE NEXT
COUNCIL MEETING, SHARED
PUBLICALLY AND PROJECTED ON
SEATTLE CHANNEL, THE INFORMATIO
IS POSTED THE DAY OF, SO
EVERYONE RECEIVES IT IN REAL
TIME, BETWEEN THE EXECUTIVE
BRANCH, LEGISLATIVE BRANCH, AND
THE COMMUNITY. IT'S ALMOST LIKE
A PRESS RELEASE OF SORTS TO LET
EVERYONE KNOW WE HAVE GOTTEN TH
INFORMATION IN REAL TIME. IT'S
GOING TO BE AUGUST 10th AT 2:00
P.M. FOR THE MEETING. THANK YOU
SO MUCH. MUCH MORE WORK TO COME
RIGHT, DAVE, WITH PLANNING FOR
THE 2024 CALENDAR YEAR AS SOON
AS WE GET THAT REVENUE FORECAST
IN AUGUST. THANK YOU IN ADVANCE
FOR ALL OF YOUR WORK, AND THANK
YOU FOR BEING HERE TODAY.
>> THANK YOU.
>> ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR DAY
AND EVENING. MADAME CLERK, DO
YOU MIND READING ITEM NUMBER
ONE? ONE, GENERAL FUND FINANCIA
PLAN UPDATE FOR BRIEFING AND
DISCUSSION.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH. WE ARE
GOING TO TURN IT OVER TO OUR
CENTRAL STAFF TEAM, AND WE HAVE
WITH US TODAY DEPUTY DIRECTOR
ALY PENNUCCI AND BUDGET LEAD TO
MIKESELL. THANK YOU FOR THE
ROBUST CENTRAL STAFF MEMO
PROVIDED TO US. I DID CIRCULATE
TO THE COUNCIL COLLEAGUES
INCLUDING THE FOLKS NOT ON
FINANCE AND HOUSING TO MAKE SUR
EVERYONE IS AWARE OF THE
FINANCIAL HEALTH OF THE CITY AN
INVITE FOLKS TO ATTEND THE
QUARTERLY MEETINGS DOING THE
REPORTS ON THE REVENUE FORECAST
AND THE IMPORTANT CENTRAL STAFF
ANALYSIS OF WHAT WE HAVE HEARD.
EVERYONE ON COUNCIL HAS RECEIVE
THAT, AND IT'S POSTED TO OUR
AGENDA AS WELL TODAY. I'M GOING
TO TURN IT OVER TO CENTRAL STAF
TO WALK US THROUGH THIS IN-DEPT
MEMO, AND A CHANCE TO FOLLOW UP
ON SOME OF THE QUESTIONS WE
STARTED TO INSERT INTO THE
DISCUSSION IN THE PREVIOUS ITEM
AND WE WILL GET INTO THAT A
LITTLE BIT MORE HERE. WELCOME
AND I WILL TURN IT OVER TO
CENTRAL STAFF.
>> HI, GOOD MORNING, COMMUNITY
MEMBERS, I'M ALY PENNUCCI,
CENTRAL STAFF AGAIN, AND JOINED
BY TOM MIKESELL. I WILL TURN IT
OVER TO TOM TO WALK THROUGH THE
PRESENTATION. BOTH ARE AVAILABL
FOR QUESTIONS. I WILL JUST SAY
WHAT YOU HAVE HEARD OTHERS SAY
TODAY AND YOU WILL HEAR TOM SAY
AGAIN, THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE
INFORMATION THAT WAS PRESENTED
AND DISCUSSED DURING COUNCIL
BUDGET DELIBERATIONS THIS FALL.
YOU WILL GET TWO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES PRIOR TO ADOPTING THE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE 2024
ENDORSED BUDGET HERE, AND THIS
IS A MOMENT IN TIME, AND WE
EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE NUMBERS
WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE AS WE
GET THE ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND
WE LEARN MORE ABOUT THE CHANGIN
ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT COSTS FOR THE
CITY SERVICES AND PROGRAMS. WIT
THAT, I WILL TURN IT OVER TO
TOM.
>> THANK YOU DEPUTY DIRECTOR
ALY PENNUCCI. GOOD MORNING,
MADAME CHAIR, AND MEMBERS OF TH
COMMITTEE. I'M TOM MIKESELL. WE
WILL GO TO THE NEXT SLIDE.
FOLLOWING ON THE DEPUTY
DIRECTOR'S COMMENTS, AND THIS I
A REGULAR UPDATE, SO IT'S A
PROCESS THAT BEGAN IN THE
COMMITTEE LAST YEAR. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
ASSUMPTIONS AROUND THE PLANNING
FOR THE BUDGET FUTURE, AND WE
THEN COME TO THE COMMITTEE AND
UPDATE HOW THE OUTLOOK HAS
CHANGED FOR THE GENERAL FUND OR
ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT FUNDS OF
INTERESTS, AND SO THE OUTLINE
FOR THIS MORNING'S PRESENTATION
WILL REALLY KIND OF HIT ON THRE
KEY TOUCH STONES AS YOU GO
THROUGH. YOU WILL SEE, FOLLOWIN
FROM THE FEEDBACK FROM THE
COMMUNITY MEMBERS IN THE PAST,
THE PRESENTATION INCLUDES PAGE
REFERENCE NUMBERS NEXT TO THE
TITLE FOR EVERY SLIDE, AND SO
YOU CAN DIG DEEPER INTO THE
ANALYSIS BECAUSE THE
PRESENTATION IS INTENDED TO JUS
PRESENT THE HIGH POINTS OF THE
ANALYSIS, BUT THERE'S SOMETIMES
DEEPER FINDINGS WITHIN THE MEMO
ITSELF. THE THREE POINTS WE WIL
COVER, THE REVIEW OF THE UPDATE
OF THE GENERAL FINANCIAL PLAN.
THAT UPDATE WILL RELY ON THE
UPDATED ESTIMATES OF HOW 2022
ENDED, WHICH IMPACTS THE AMOUNT
OF MONEY FLOWING INTO THIS
YEAR'S BUDGET, AND UPDATED
REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE
PROJECTIONS, AND YOU JUST HEARD
A VERY IN-DEPTH PRESENTATION
FROM THE CBO ABOUT THE CHANGES
AND THE BENEFICIAL CHANGES TO
THE GENERAL FUND, AND SOME LESS
BENEFICIAL CHANGES TO REET AND
JUMP START FUND, AND THROUGH
2026, AND ALSO THERE'S INFLATIO
CHANGES THAT WERE DISCUSSED, AN
THOSE HAVE BEEN LAYERED INTO TH
MODEL. GIVEN THAT JUMP START
FUND HAS AN INTERSECTION WITH
THE GENERAL FUND THAT WE WILL
DISCUSS THIS MORNING, AND THAT
THE JUMP START REVENUE
PROJECTIONS ARE DOWNGRADED IN
THE MOST RECENT FORECAST, WE
WILL HAVE A DISCUSSION ABOUT HO
IT LOOKS AND IMPACTS THE
TWO-YEAR PLAN ADOPTED LAST FALL
THEN, GIVEN THAT, BUILDING ON
THE DISCUSSION OF THE AMOUNT FO
THE EQUITY PROGRAMS IS LOWER
THAN WHAT WOULD HAVE BEEN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN TH
FORECAST FOR THE NEW PAYROLL
EXPENSE TAX IN 2020 WHEN THE
DISCUSSION WAS TAKING PLACE. SO
IF WE COULD MOVE TO THE NEXT
SLIDE, WE WILL JUMP IN TO THE
BETAILS. ACTUALLY, THIS IS JUST
THE HIGH LEVEL CAVEAT. WE ARE
USING THE UNDERLYING
ASSUMPTIONS, BASELINE DATA, AND
METHODS USED BY CBO. I DO -- TH
RECAST OF THE NUMBERS TO
IDENTIFY WHAT THE ONGOING
OPERATING SURPLUS DEFICIT IS.
THAT'S THE OPERATING GAP FOR
CITY GOVERNMENT FUNDED BY THE
GENERAL FUND. THESE ELEMENTS AR
NOT A PROGRAM CONCLUSION. THEY
ARE, OF COURSE, DELIBERATE
DISCUSSIONS OF COUNCIL, MAKING
CHANGES UP OR DOWN TO THE BUDGE
PROJECTIONS THIS IS JUST USING
THE CURRENT LAW APPROACH,
APPLYING THE SET OF ASSUMPTIONS
FROM THE RESOURCES THAT WE HAVE
AT OUR HANDS, AND GIVING US A
SENSE OF WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS
FOR THE GENERAL FUND. THIS SLID
CAPTURES THE INFORMATION COVERE
IN PAGES TWO THROUGH FOUR OF TH
MEMO. IT DOES TWO THINGS. IT
SHOWS YOU IN THE CIRCLED AREA,
THE TWO-YEAR BUDGET, AND SO JUS
AS A REAL QUICK REFRESHER, WHY
WE DO THE TWO-YEAR BUDGET,
PASSED IN 1992, IN RESOLUTION
28885, WHERE THE COUNCIL AT THE
TIME, ENDORSED A TWO-YEAR
MODIFIED BIANNUAL APPROACH TO
BUDGETING. THIS ESSENTIALLY SAY
IN EVEN-NUMBERED YEARS, THE
BUDGET FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS I
ADOPTED. IN THE CASE, ADOPTED
AND ENDORSED PLAN. THAT'S WHAT
HAPPENED LAST FALL. IN NOVEMBER
OF 2022, COUNCIL PASSED THE
ADOPTED 2023 BUDGET AND ENDORSE
32027, THE 2024 BUDGET, AND THE
PARAMETERS ARE AS ADOPTED IN
NOVEMBER THAT THE STARTING
BALANCE FOR 2022 WAS $273
MILLION, AND THEN WITH THE
ENDING AND RESERVE BALANCE OF
$155 MILLION OR BUDGETARY
BALANCE OF $193 MILLION,
CARRYING FORWARD INTO 2023, AND
THEN THERE'S FINANCIAL ACTIVITY
REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES, AND
THAT LEADS TO AN ENDING
BUDGETARY BALANCE OF $145
MILLION, AND THAT THEN CARRIES
INTO 2024, AND THEN FINANCIAL
ACTIVITY PLANNED FOR NEXT YEAR,
AND THAT WOULD BRING THE ENDING
AND RESERVE BALANCE TO $0 AT TH
END. THIS IS KIND OF THE
SNAPSHOT IN THE POINT IN TIME,
ADOPTED AND ENDORSED BUDGET, AN
LEADING TO A $0 ENDING BALANCE
AT 2024, INDICATING A BALANCED
BUDGET. WE ALSO INCLUDE THE
OUTYEAR PROJECTIONS, AND THEY
ARE LESS CERTAIN, BUT WE USE
BEST AVAILABLE DATA AT THE TIME
WHEN THE BUDGET WAS ADOPTED. IT
WAS ESTIMATED THERE WAS -- AND
SHOWN IN THE BLUE LINE IN THE
MIDDLE, AND AN OPERATING
DEFICIT, BEGINNING IN 2025 AND
2026 OF ABOUT$212 MILLION ON
AVERAGE. THIS IS BASICALLY
SAYING THAT THE ONGOING REVENUE
ARE $212 MILLION SHORT OF THE
PROJECTED ONGOING EXPENDITURES
IN THE YEARS. AS COVERED IN THE
MEMO, AND AS COVERED LAST YEAR,
THERE ARE A FEW DISCREET REASON
FOR THAT. ONE IS THAT THE
BUDGET, THE FINANCIAL PLAN
ADOPTED PRIOR TO THE COVID
RECESSION IN THE FALL OF 2019
ACTUALLY INCLUDED A $39 MILLION
PROJECTED DEFICIT IN THE OUT
YEARS. IT'S KIND OF A
PREEXISTING CONDITION COMING
INTO THE BUDGET PLANNING THAT
THE COUNCIL WAS FACED WITH LAST
FALL. ALSO THE '23 AND '24
ENDORSED BUDGET INCLUDING
TEMPORARY ONE-TIME REVENUE
SUPPORT FROM THE JUMP START
FUND, AND THAT'S APPROXIMATELY
$100 MILLION IN 2023 AND $85
MILLION IN 2024. AND THEN
FINALLY SOME REVENUE CATEGORIES
JUST HAVE NOT RECOVERED TO THEI
PREPANDEMIC TRENDS. NOTABLE ARE
COURT FINES AND PARKING FEES.
THERE'S SOME INDICATION THEY AR
STARTING TO RECOVER, BUT THEY
ARE LAGGING BEHIND. GIVEN THE
PROJECTIONS WE HAD AT THAT TIME
THE ENDING AND RESERVE BALANCE
WOULD HAVE BEEN IF THE PLAN WAS
TO GO TO THE NEGATIVE $425
MILLION AT THE END OF 2026.
BUILDING FROM THIS STARTING
POINT, -- GOING TO THE NEXT
SLIDE, I HAVE LAYERED IN A
NUMBER OF CHANGES THAT HAVE
OCCURRED BECAUSE IT WAS A
PROJECTION AT THAT TIME, AND NO
WE HAVE NEW PROJECTIONS, AND ON
OF THE CRITICAL THINGS IS TO
REASSESS HOW MUCH MONEY IS
AVAILABLE, COMING INTO THE 2023
BASED ON THE ACTIVITY FOR LAST
YEAR. THAT IS ACTUALLY A GOOD
NEWS STORY BECAUSE THE BUDGETAR
FUND BALANCE, SO THE MONEY
AVAILABLE TO SPEND IN 2023,
IMPROVING BY $168 MILLION.
THAT'S A COMBINATION OF THE
REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CHANGES
AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST
OFFICE PROJECTIONS, REVENUES FO
'23, $5 MILLION BELOW THE
ESTIMATES IN 2022. THAT'S MORE
THAN DUE TO UNRECEIVED GRANTS,
AND DIRECTOR NOBLE DID TOUCH ON
THE CONCEPT OF THE GRANTS AND
HOW ACTUALLY THEY WERE SHOWING
UP IN THE 2023 FORECAST, AND HE
MADE AN ADJUSTMENT FOR THOSE.
THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE STORY. IT'S THE
GRANT BUILT INTO THE BUDGET, BU
NOT RECEIVED. THEN ALSO,
EXPENDITURES LAST YEAR, BELOW
THE REVISED BUDGET. HOWEVER, AL
OF THAT, PART OF THE EXPENDITUR
BUDGET, STILL INTENDED TO SPEND
IT, AND SO AFTER YOU MAKE THE
ADJUSTMENT FOR THE AMOUNT THAT
THE DEPARTMENTS INTEND TO SPEND
IN BUDGET TERMS CARRY FORWARD
APPROPRIATIONS, THERE'S A $35
MILLION POSITIVE IMPROVEMENT IN
THE FUND BALANCE. WITH REGARDS
TO THE CARRY FORWARDS, THE LARG
CHUNK OF THAT IS AUTOMATIC.
THESE ARE JUST CAPITAL OR THING
TIED TO GRANTS THAT HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED. THAT'S ABOUT $105
MILLION, AND THAT'S
AUTOMATICALLY DONE IN THE
FINANCIAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER PIECE
FOR THE AGENDA, LEGISLATIVE
AMOUNTS. THESE ARE THE AMOUNTS
BEING REREQUESTED BY THE
DEPARTMENTED FOR THE COUNCIL TO
APPROVE TO BE CARRIED INTO THIS
YEAR'S BUDGET. THE UPSHOT OF
THIS THE BUDGETARY FUND BALANCE
IS BETTER THAN EXPECTED, AND AN
EXTRA $34 MILLION INTO THIS YEA
THAT IS UNRESERVED. LET'S GO
TO THE NEXT SLIDE. OKAY, SO
THERE'S A FEW OBSERVATIONS ABOU
THE 22 ACTIVITY THAT ARE
IMPORTANT TO TOUCH ON.
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARDS TO
SOME OF THE CONCEPTS I WILL TAL
ABOUT LATER, INCLUDING HIGHER
COSTS FOR THIS YEAR, AND
INTERACTION WITH THE JUMP START
FUND, AND FIRST WHEN YOU PEEL
BACK THE ONION OF THE FINANCIAL
ACTIVITY OF LAST YEAR, YOU
REALIZE THERE WAS AN UNDERSPEND
BUDGET OF $57.5 MILLION. 3.4% O
THE 2022 BUDGET AFTER ADJUSTING
FOR THE CARRY FORWARDS. SO THER
IS A FEW DETAILS ABOUT THAT THA
ARE INTERESTING TO KNOW AND TO
KEEP IN MIND WHEN THINKING ABOU
THE BUDGET SESSIONS THIS YEAR,
AND INCLUDING THE MID-YEAR
SUPPLEMENT AND 2024 BUDGET. ONE
IS THAT IN LAST YEAR'S MEMO AT
THIS TIME, WE IDENTIFIED THERE
WAS APPROXIMATELY A $50 MILLION
UNDERSPEND IN 2021. THIS IS A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMOUNT WITH
THE UNDERSPEND. NEXT THE 2022
BUDGET, THE BALANCED PLAN IS
ASSUMING THE $20 MILLION
UNDERSPEND FOR 2022, AND THIS
ACTUALLY OUTPERFORMED THE
ASSUMPTION ON THE $37.5 MILLION
THEN FINALLY THE UNDERSPEND FOR
THE CURRENT YEAR, $10 MILLION.
SIMILARLY FOR THE 2024
ENDORSEMENT BUDGET, $10 MILLION
THE ACTUAL EXPERIENCE OF
UNDERSPEND IS SOME MEASURE
HIGHER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN
ASSUMED IN THE BUDGET PLAN.
>> AND, TOM, CAN YOU DO A
SUMMARY HERE?
>> SO THE UNANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL UNDERRESERVED 34
MILLION, HOW
>> WE BASICALLY HAVE $34
MILLION MORE COMING IN, JUST
BASED ON ADVANTAGEOUS FINANCIA
ACTIVITY IN 2021 2022.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH. $34
MILLION. THANK YOU.
>> AND THANK YOU FOR THE SEGWAY
TO THE POINT. THAT IS
INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE OF
REASONS. THAT WE WILL TOUCH ON
LATER. ONE IS ORDINANCE 126719
WHICH IS THE LEGISLATIVE
VEHICLE THAT AUTHORIZES
TEMPORARY USE OF THE JUMPSTART
FUND TO SUPPORT GENERAL FUND
REVENUE SHORTFALLS IN 2023 AND
2024, SO IN THE CURRENT YEAR
BUDGET PLAN. IT ALLOWED FOR AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE CURRENT YEAR
BY WHATEVER AMOUNT THERE WAS FO
EXTRA MONEY THE PRIOR YEAR. SO
BY THE ORDINANCE 126719, THE
FUND FLEXIBILITY ORDINANCE,
THAT WOULD INDICATE THE TRANSFE
COULD BE REDUCED BY $34 MILLION
I WILL NOTE THAT IN DISCUSSION
AND PREPARING THIS INFORMATION
THE SHORTFALLS DESCRIBED IN THE
REVENUE FORECAST PRESENTATION
EARLIER IN THE JUMPSTART FUND,
TO BALANCE THE 2023 BUDGET.
PART OF THE PLAN IS TO REDUCE
THAT BY A HIGHER AMOUNT, SO THA
WAS ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN WHAT
THE ORDINANCE WOULD REQUIRE AN
THERE WERE MORE POINTS ON THIS
I WILL COVER THOSE LATER WHEN W
TALK ABOUT THE JUMPSTART FUND,
BUT THAT IS JUST ONE PIECE OF
HOW THE ORDINANE INTERACTS WITH
THE EXECUTIVE AND
ADMINISTRATIVE, AS TOLD TO US B
THE BUDGET OFFICE.
>> SO SEPARATE FROM THE PUBLIC
TESTIMONY WE HEARD THIS MORNIN
ABOUT POSSIBLE HOLDS FOR 2023,
YOU ARE SAYING THAT THE
JUMPSTART FUND ORDINANCE THAT
WE PASSED REQUESTED AND DIRECTE
THAT ANY HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATE
UNDERSPEND AND ADDITIONAL
REVENUE THAT CAME IN SHOULD GO
BACK TO ACTUALLY REPLENISHING
JUMPSTART. SO THAT IS THAT, IN
ADDITION TO THE NEED FOR US,
WELL, I WOULD SAY THAT THE
AGREEMENT THAT WAS MADE FOR US
TO STAY TRUE TO SPENDING THE
$220 AS THE LINE BEING HELD
FROM OUR SPINED PLAN. SO THE
ORDINANCE THAT WAS PASSED
ASSUMED WE WOULD HAVE MONEY
BACK, BUT BESIDES THAT
CONVERSATION WHICH I AM SURE WE
WILL CAP AT THE END OF THE YEAR
WE ARE AT THE POINT OF WORRYING
ABOUT THE $2020 AMOUNTS THAT
WERE AUTHORIZED IN THE 2023
BUDGET NOT BEING POTENTIALLY
ADHERED TO. I SEE ALY COMING ON
THE SCREEN HERE. IF I AM NOT
MAKING SENSE, PLEASE LET ME
KNOW. I AM TRYING TO DRAW THAT
POINT OUT BECAUSE I THINK THERE
ARE DIFFERENT ASSETS. THE
STATUTORY OBLIGATION AND THE
BUDGET BILL, THAT WE WOULD BE
ADHERING TO THE AMOUNTS CODIFIE
IN THE BUDGET AND SPECIFIED IN
OUR 2020 SPENDING PLAN.
>> THANK YOU, CHAIR MOSQUEDA. I
DON'T HAVE ANYTHING TO ADD
REALLY . TO SORT OF RESTATE WHA
YOU SAID. THE REVENUES AND THE
UPDATE ON THAT, BY THE ORDINANC
THAT TOM DID DESCRIBE, THAT $3
MILLION BY LAW SHOULD BE
TRANSFERRED BACK TO THE
JUMPSTART FUND AND THERE WILL
BE MORE ON THAT LATER IN THE
PRESENTATION.
>> OKAY, THANK YOU. SO WE CAN
CONTINUE.
>> SO THE PRIOR SLIDE COVERED
THE 2022 ADJUSTMENT TO THE PLAN
AND NOW WITH THE NEXT SLIDE W
WILL START TO TALK ABOUT THE
CHANGES TO 2023 AND BEYOND AND
THE KEY DRIVER OF THE NEW
INFORMATION IS GOING TO BE THE
CBO OR REVENUE FORECAST AND I
DO SEE A QUESTION FROM VICE
CHAIR HERBOLD.
>> THANK YOU. VICE CHAIR
HERBOLD, PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> I AM JUST TRYING TO
UNDERSTAND GUIDES AND
ASSUMPTIONS FOR FUTURE YEARS.
IT SEEMS LIKE WE ARE ASSUMING
$10 MILLION THIS YEAR AND NEXT
BUT OUR UNDERSPEND IS FIVE TIME
THAT.
>> WHICH IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC.
>> I APPRECIATE, ALY, KIND OF
GOING DOWN THE BOTTOM LINE ON
JUMPSTART REVENUE, BUT I THINK
IT WOULD BE HELPFUL TO
UNDERSTAND AGAIN WHAT OUR
ASSUMPTIONS ARE, FOR FUTURE
YEARS. AND WHETHER OR NOT THOS
ARE THE RIGHT ASSUMPTIONS.
>> PLEASE, I WAS GOING TO SAY,
HAVE HEARD TOM OPINE ON THIS I
THE PAST AND I KNOW THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT THE CENTRAL
STAFF BUDGET TEAM AND CBO, TO
THEIR CREDIT, HAS ALSO
ACKNOWLEDGED IS NOT A GREAT WA
TO BUDGET. IF WE ARE CONSTANTLY
NOT HITTING THE MARK IN TERMS O
EXPENDITURES AND WE HAVE
MILLIONS OF UNDERSPEND, THAT I
NOT A GREAT BUDGETING PRACTICE.
I KNOW TOM HAS DONE COMPARISONS
WITH OTHER JURISDICTIONS AND
WOULD LOVE TO HEAR IF YOU HAVE
IMMEDIATE REACTIONS TO
COUNCILMEMBER HERBOLD'S
THOUGHTS, EITHER FROM TOM OR
DEPUTY DIRECTOR ALY PENNUCCI.
>> THANK YOU, MADAM CHAIR.
THANK YOU FOR THE QUESTION.
INDEED, MY FINANCIAL PLANNING
BACKGROUND IS ALWAYS INTRIGUED
BY THIS TYPE OF THING. THE
COMPARISONS FOR OTHER
JURISDICTIONS ARE PERHAPS LESS
HELPFUL IN THIS REGARD, BECAUS
EVERY CITY OUT RAKES IN A
DIFFERENT WAY. I KNOW THAT THE
ASSUMPTIONS THAT WERE INCLUDED
FOR THE ADOPTED BUDGET PLAN FOR
THE BUDGET WAS WHAT CBO WAS
COMFORTABLE WITH AT THE TIME
AND I DEFERRED TO THEIR
UNDERSTANDING OF HOW THE
FINANCES WORK. I DO KNOW THAT
THEY STOOD UP A MORE ENHANCED
FISCAL MONITORING PROGRAM, WHIC
MAY IMPROVE IN THIS REGARD TO
UNDERSTANDING WHAT THE KIND OF
REAL-TIME READ IS ON THE
UNDERSPEND. ALL I AM DOING IS
IDENTIFYING THE EXPERIENCE TO
HELP COMPARE WITH THE ASSUMPTIO
WHAT THE ACTUAL AMOUNT THAT
BOTH THE EXECUTIVE AND THE CITY
COUNCIL WOULD BE COMFORTABLE
WITH. AS A POLICY CHOICE, IN
TERMS OF BALANCING THE PLAN.
BECAUSE IF YOU BUDGET TOO HIGH
OF AN UNDERSPEND, YOU SOMETIMES
MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO MEET THAT
TARGET. PERHAPS A BETTER
APPROACH WOULD BE TO ADJUST
YOUR ACTUAL SPENDING BASED ON
THAT INFORMATION IN THE BUDGET.
ONE THING THAT OCCURS TO ME IS
GIVEN A COUPLE OF YEARS OF A
FAIRLY ROBUST UNDERSPEND AND
GIVEN THAT THERE ARE CHALLENGE
WITH REGARDS TO HIGHER COST,
THAT WE WILL TALK ABOUT ON THIS
SLIDE, OR THE NEXT SLIDE. BUT
THERE MIGHT BE SOME
INTERSECTION BETWEEN THE TWO,
WHERE THE EXPERIENCE FROM THE
PRIOR YEAR CAN TRANSLATE INTO
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED SPINED
THIS YEAR AND CAN HELP BALANCE
OUT THOSE COST PRESSURES THAT
ARE REAL, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MET. SO IT IS AN ONGOING
DISCUSSION AND THE WORK IS BEIN
DONE AND ONE HOPES THAT IT ADD
FEEDBACK --
>> I TAKE FROM THE COMMENTS AS
WELL, VICE CHAIR, THAT IT IS A
GOOD FLAG FOR US THAT EVEN THIS
DOLLAR AMOUNT, EVEN THOUGH IT
IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT, IT IS
MAYBE A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE O
HOW MUCH IS AVAILABLE. SO AT
LEAST $34 MILLION IN UNRESERVE
BALANCE COULD BE ANTICIPATED, I
THE TAKE AWAY I COULD HAVE. I
ALSO WANT TO NOTE FOR THE
VIEWING PUBLIC. IT DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE WE HAVE THE SLIDES LINK ON
OUR AGENDA, SO WE WILL SEND
THOSE FOR COLLEAGUES AND MAKE
SURE THEY ARE PART OF OUR FINAL
MEMO THAT GETS POSTED TO THE
WEBSITE FOR SEATTLE CITY COUNCI
AND COLLEAGUES WILL TRY TO GET
THAT SUIT YOU IF THEY NEED TO.
ALL RIGHT, TOM.
>> NEXT SLIDE. OKAY, THANK YOU
SO THIS MORNING WE STARTED WIT
AN UPDATED REVENUE FORECAST FRO
THE FORECAST OFFICE AT CBO AND
IT WAS A DETAILED DISCUSSION.
WILL NOT BELABOR IT TOO MUCH.
NEAR-TERM REVENUE IMPROVEMENT,
HOWEVER NOT MUCH CHANGED IN TH
OUT YEARS, AS WAS COVERED LAST
FALL. FOLKS WERE EXPECTING A
RECESSION AND THAT FORTUNATELY
HAS NOT HAPPENED, THOUGH IT
SEEMS NATIONAL FORECASTERS KEE
PUSHING OUT THE BAD NEWS.
PERHAPS SOFTENING IT SOME INTO
THE FUTURE. SO ALL WE KNOW IS
WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY AND
WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY IS THAT
GENERAL FUND REVENUES ARE
HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY
PROJECTED. UNFORTUNATELY THE
OFFSETTING PORTION OF THAT IS
THAT INFLATION IS ALSO SOMEWHA
IN THE FORECAST WITH THE MOST
ACUTE BUMP HAPPENING IN THE
CURRENT YEAR. IF YOU LOOK AT
THE MEMO, THIS IS COVERED ON
PAGES SEVEN THROUGH NINE. THERE
IS A DISCUSSION THAT COMPARES
THE FORECAST WITH THOSE THAT WE
ARE SEEING NOW. CURRENT YEAR I
ABOUT 1.1% HIGHER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND IT
IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN 2024.
PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 0.5%
HIGHER. I WILL NOTE THAT THERE
WAS HIGHER INFLATION INSPECTED,
SO THERE WAS SOME MEASURE OF
THAT IN THE BUDGET PLAN. BOTH
THE TWO-YEAR AND THE LONG TERM.
SO THIS IS JUST A SLIGHT TAKIN
UP OF THOSE ASSUMPTIONS, BUT
AGAIN, IT HAS AN IMPACT. IN
TERMS OF HOW TO ACCOMMODATE THA
IN A FINANCIAL MODEL, GIVEN
THAT WE ARE ALREADY IN 2023 AN
THE FINANCIAL PLAN BUILDS UP
THE ENDORSED BUDGET THAT WAS
COMPLICATED WHEN INFLATION WAS
LOWER. I ADDED AN AMOUNT TO TH
2024 BASE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
AND THAT IS REALLY THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DRIVER IN THE MODEL
HIGHER INFLATION. AND I GUESS
TO ECHO SOME OF THE COMMENTARY
FROM EARLIER, THESE NUMBERS WIL
BE ADJUSTED IN THE FUTURE IN
NEXT ITERATIONS OF THE
FORECAST. THE MOST RECENT WILL
BE IN AUGUST AND THERE WAS SOM
REFERENCE TO IMPROVEMENT OVER
TIME IN THE FORECAST. MEANING
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL
YEAR WHERE WE WILL RECEIVE THE
MONEY, THE ESTIMATES GET MORE
ACCURATE. THERE IS ACTUALLY A
GOOD REPORT THAT WAS DONE BY
THE FORECAST OFFICE ABOUT THE
FORECAST ACCURACY AND THOSE
TRENDS THAT IS LINKED TO THE
NOVEMBER 2022 AGENDA. IT IS
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB. IT IS A
USEFUL READ TO SHOW HOW THE
ACCURACY DOES IMPROVE. THE
NUMBERS GET BETTER ON AVERAGE,
UNLESS WE GO INTO A RECESSION.
IF THERE IS POSITIVITY, THAT IS
WHAT I WOULD ADD TO THE
PRESENTATION. IN PAST EXPERIENC
THE NUMBERS HAVE GOTTEN BETTER
WE ARE ALWAYS IN THE BUSINESS O
PREDICTING THE FUTURE. THERE I
ALWAYS AN ELEMENT OF RISK. SO
THAT COVERS THE KIND OF
INFLATION AND FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS. THERE ARE JUST A
FEW OTHER AD HOC ITEMS THAT WER
LEGISLATION THAT HAS BEEN
PASSED. COUNCIL BILL 126791 WAS
THE FIRST QUARTER GRANT
ACCEPTANCE ORDINANCE. REVENUE
AND EXPENDITURE ACCEPTED IN THA
BILL. THAT IS SORT OF A MUTUAL
ADJUSTMENT. ALSO A FEW TECHNICA
ADJUSTMENTS THAT ARE COVERED I
THE MEMO. THEY ARE FAIRLY MINOR
ONE IS $600,000 REVENUE
DECREASE. THAT IS ESSENTIALLY
PAYING BACK SOME CITY FUNDS.
CITY LIGHT FUND, UTILITIES
FUNDS, FOR COSTS FOR THE
REVENUE THAT THEY PAID TO THE
GENERAL FUND FOR CENTRAL
SERVICES. THINGS LIKE CBO AND
THE MAYOR'S OFFICE AND COUNCIL.
THOSE ACTUAL COSTS WERE LOWER
THAN WHAT THEY WERE CHARGED
AND ALSO THERE IS A TECHNICAL
ADJUSTMENT. THERE WAS
ESSENTIALLY A YEAR-END
SUPPLEMENTAL LAST YEAR THAT
SHOULD HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A
CAPITAL PROJECT, BUT WAS NOT.
THAT WAS A MISS. IT WAS NOT
AUTOMATICALLY CARRIED FORWARD
AND IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN UNDER
SOME STANDARD PRACTICE, SO THAT
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDYEAR
SUPPLEMENTAL. $1.47 MILLION AND
I WOULD NOTE THAT IN THE MEMO
IT WAS A TYPO. THE MEMO SAYS
1.6 AND IT SHOULD ACTUALLY BE
$1.47 MILLION. FINALLY IN 2023
THAT IS BASED ON INFORMATION
FROM THE BUDGET OFFICE ABOUT
SOME CONTINGENT FACTORS THEY AR
TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR. THERE
MAY BE OTHER ITEMS AS WELL.
THESE ARE THE ONES AVAILABLE TO
US AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS
PLAN.
>> OKAY.
>> SO THIS COVERS INFORMATION O
PAGES NINE THROUGH 10 OF THE
MEMO. THIS JUST UPDATES WITH
THE OPERATING CAP LOOKS LIKE AN
AS YOU COULD SEE THE OPERATING
GAP HAS GOTTEN WORSE. THIS IS
BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
HAVING NEAR-TERM REVENUES THAT
ARE BETTER, FORECASTERS ARE NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THERE IS GOING T
BE MUCH IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
LONG TERM AND ALSO, BECAUSE OF
INFLATION, LONG-TERM COSTS ARE
INCREASING. THAT IS THE REASON
THE OPERATING DEFICIT GOES UP,
BUT AGAIN, THIS IS JUST A POIN
IN TIME. WE WILL REASSESS THIS
NUMBER IN AUGUST. AND THEN THE
FINAL WRAP FOR THIS IS REALLY
THE POINT OF HOW MUCH MONEY IS
AVAILABLE AND WHEN. SO IF YOU
LOOK AT THE BLUE LINE ON THIS
GRAPH, THE ENDING FUND BALANCE.
SO HOW MUCH MONEY THERE IS TO
SPEND IN EACH ONE OF THOSE
YEARS AND THEN THE COMPARISON
IS THE NUMBERS COMING OUT OF TH
UPDATE. AS YOU CAN SEE, IN ALL
YEARS THE UPDATE IS HIGHER. IN
2023, THE REVISED ESTIMATES THA
WE PUT TOGETHER TODAY IS ABOUT
$1.8 MILLION MORE.
INTERESTINGLY IN 2020 FOR THAT
NUMBER INCREASES TO $53
MILLION. SO IF WE LOOK AT THE
PROJECTED TIME PERIOD THAT THE
ORIGINAL FORECAST WAS FOR ZERO
BASICALLY A ZERO BALANCE BUDGE
ANOTHER IS $53 MILLION POSITIVE
IT KIND OF OFFERS A LITTLE BIT
OF EXTRA BUFFER IN THAT SECOND
YEAR. CONTINGENT EXPENDITURE
CATEGORIES. THAT WOULD BE
REVEALED DURING THE EXECUTIVE
PROCESS FOR CHANGES FOR THE
PROPOSED BUDGET AND I WILL NOT
THAT THE ENDING BUDGET BALANCE
AT THE END OF 2026 HAS IMPROVED
FROM $4.7 MILLION -- BUT IN
ORDER TO ACTUALLY HAVE THAT
COME TO PASS, AND IT WOULD NOT
COME TO PASS ANYWAY, BECAUSE TH
BUDGET MUST BE BALANCED IN EACH
YEAR, BUT THAT WOULD REQUIRE TH
MONEY AVAILABLE IN 2022 REMAINS
UNSPENT. WHICH GIVEN COST
PRESSURES IS PROBABLY LESS
LIKELY.
>> THANKS, TOM. I WOULD JUST
ADD HERE, CHANNELING A LITTLE
BIT OF DIRECTOR DINGLEY FROM
THE BUDGET OFFICE, THAT THIS IS
INDICATING RESOURCES IN THE
SHORT TERM. THE CITY BUDGET
OFFICE IS SEEING CERTAIN LINES
OF BUSINESS COSTS FOR 2024.
WHILE IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME
RESOURCES ARE AVAILABLE, IT MA
BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT THE
EXPENDITURES ALREADY PROGRAMMED
IN THE 2024 ENDORSED BUDGET.
>> THANKS SO MUCH. I WOULD ALSO
ECHO THAT, SPECIFIC TO THE
GENERAL FUND. THE GENERAL FUND
IS NOT BEING SOLVED BY THE
SLIGHT UPTICK IN GENERAL FUND
EXPENSES COMING IN, BUT THAT IS
úA FAIR POINT FOR US ALL TO
REMEMBER AND I THINK IT
UNDERSCORES THE NEED FOR US TO
CONTINUE TO HAVE SUCCESSFUL
CONVERSATIONS AT THE TABLE,
GIVEN THE OUT YEARS THAT ARE
BEING SHOWN IN THE CHARTS THAT
WE HAVE SEEN FOR 2025 AND
BEYOND. IT ALSO IS A GOOD
REMINDER FOR US THAT WE HAVE
MANY REVENUE STREAMS THAT NEED
TO BE REEVALUATED. WE TALKED A
LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE PARKING
REVENUE, FOR EXAMPLE, TODAY, AN
WAYS TO CREATE MORE STABLE
REVENUE SOURCES IS ALWAYS NEEDE
AND WE, I THINK, ARE GOING TO
HAVE MORE CONVERSATION COMING U
ABOUT JUMPSTART. AS A REMINDER
JUMPSTART WAS NEVER INTENDED TO
BE THE BACKFILL TO THE GENERAL
FUND. JUMPSTART HAS A SPEND PLA
THAT IS CODIFIED IN STATUTE AN
THROUGH GOOD FAITH AND
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE EXECUTIVE
TEAM WE OFFERED FLEXIBILITY FOR
THE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
REVENUE. SPECIFICALLY 2023, AN
REVENUE OVER $220 MILLION COULD
BE ALLOWED TO TEMPORARILY GO
INTO THE GENERAL FUND TO ADDRES
GENERAL FUND DOLLARS BEING
DOWN. NOW GENERAL FUND DOLLARS
ARE STARTING TO COME BACK UP
AND IF YOU CAN IMAGINE SWAPPING
OUT THE COLOR OF MONEY, WHERE
JUMPSTART DECLINED BY ABOUT $6
MILLION AND GENERAL FUND WAS UP
ABOUT $68 MILLION. SWAPPING IN
GENERAL FUND FOR WHERE JUMPSTAR
IT SUPPLEMENTED FOR GENERAL FUN
EXPENSES MAKES A LOT OF SENSE,
BUT THERE IS STILL THIS ONGOIN
NEED FOR US TO LOOK AT OUT YEAR
AND ESPECIALLY THE STABILITY AN
PHYSICAL HEALTH OF THE CITY IN
2025 AND BEYOND AND WE WILL HAV
SOME CONVERSATIONS HERE, I
THINK, ABOUT THE 2023, CURRENT
CALENDAR YEAR BUDGET, AND THE
2024 PART OF OUR APPROACH IN
JUST A MOMENT. BUT NONE OF THES
YEARS WAS NEVER INTENDED THAT
JUMPSTART WOULD BACKFILL AND BE
THE HOLDING PLACE FOR DOLLARS T
BE USED FOR FUTURE GENERAL FUN
INVESTMENTS EITHER. DO YOU HAVE
ADDITIONAL SLIDES, TOM?
>> I DO.
>> OKAY, AND I WANT TO REMIND
OUR COLLEAGUES, DEPUTY DIRECTOR
PENNUCCI OF THE SLIDES TO
MEMBERS OF THE COMMUNITY --
MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE
YESTERDAY. WE WILL CIRCULATE
THAT TO ALL MEMBERS AS A REPLY
ALL TO THE EMAIL. THAT INCLUDED
TOM'S MEMO THAT WE SENT AROUND
YESTERDAY.
>> SO I WILL WRAP UP THE GENERA
FUND HERE. I COVERED MOST OF
THESE IN THE LAST SLIDE. THERE
ARE SOME KEY TAKEAWAYS. WITH
REGARDS TO HOW MUCH MONEY WAS
AVAILABLE IN 2023, COMPARED TO
THE ADOPTED BUDGET PLAN, THERE
IS ABOUT $31.8 MILLION
ADDITIONAL IN THE GENERAL FUND
AND JUST ONE KEY POINT, SINCE W
WILL BE TALKING ABOUT THE
JUMPSTART FUND, GIVEN REVENUE
PRESSURES AND THE PAYROLL
EXPENSE TAX. THIS $31.8 MILLION
IS NET OF THE ADMINISTRATIVE
REDUCTION OF THE TRANSFER FROM
THE JUMPSTART FUND TO THE
GENERAL FUND. SO A PORTION HAS
ALREADY BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR. THI
IS NET OF THAT TRANSFER, BUT
AGAIN, JUST TO KIND OF WRAP UP,
THE PROJECTED ANNUAL DEFICIT
BASED ON WHAT WE KNOW NOW HAS
WORSENED, BUT PROJECTIONS WILL
CHANGE AS WE RECEIVE NEW DATA
AND THE EXECUTIVE CONTINUES
THEIR TYPICAL AND STANDARD WORK
ON COMPILING WHAT THE PROVISION
ARE, PLANNED -- AND NOW LET'S
LOOK.
>> TOM, CAN I ASK YOU A
QUESTION, BECAUSE WE SPENT A
LITTLE BIT OF TIME TALKING ABOU
THE 2022 UNDERSPEND AND THE EN
FUND BALANCE? CAN YOU TALK ABOU
THE $34 MILLION NUMBER COMPARE
TO THIS AND THE TWO YEARS?
WHICH NUMBER SHOULD WE BE
LOOKING AT US WE THINK ABOUT
WHAT MIGHT BE AVAILABLE FOR THI
YEAR AND NEXT YEAR?
>> THANK YOU FOR THE QUESTION,
MADAM CHAIR. THE $31.8 MILLION
IS THE NUMBER WE SHOULD USE
BECAUSE IT INCLUDES THE IMPACT
OF ALL OF THE VARIOUS CHANGES.
$34 MILLION IS JUST THE FIRST
CHANGE, BUT AS I COVERED, THERE
ARE OTHER CHANGES AFFECTING BOT
REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES IN
THE PLAN. THE BEST WAY TO LOOK
AT IT IS TO SEE HOW MUCH THE
UNRESERVED ENDING FUND BALANCE
IS, WHICH IS $31.8 MILLION. SO
THAT IS THE NUMBER TO TARGET A
THIS POINT IN TIME FOR BEING
AVAILABLE IN 2023 IN THE
GENERAL FUND, AFTER ACCOUNTING
FOR ELEMENTS INCLUDING THE $4
MILLION OF CONTINGENT ELEMENTS.
AND A FEW TECHNICAL
ADJUSTMENTS. THAT IS HOW THE
NUMBERS ALL HANG TOGETHER.
REALLY THE KEY NUMBER TO LOOK A
IN THIS ANALYSIS IS THE CHANGE
IN THE FUND BALANCE, WHICH AGAI
IS $31 MILLION.
>> THANK YOU.
>> OKAY, SO GIVEN A COUPLE OF
UNIQUE CHARACTERISTICS IN THE
BIANNUAL PLAN. THERE IS A
BALANCED BIANNUAL PLAN THAT WAS
ADOPTED AND ENDORSED LAST FALL
IT IS IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT THE
JUMPSTART FUND, GIVEN THAT THAT
IS ONE OF THE FUNDS WITHIN THEI
SECTION OF THE GENERAL FUND ON
A TEMPORARY BASIS, WHERE THE
FUND PROVIDES REVENUE SUPPORT.
THIS IS THE ADOPTED JUMPSTART
FUND BUDGET THAT WAS ADOPTED
LAST FALL. IT SHOWS STARTING
BALANCES COMING IN. SO THERE WA
ZERO AT THE END OF 2022 AND THE
A NUMBER OF REVENUE AND
EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS. KIND
OF ALL BOTTOM-LINE GOING TO AN
ENDING BUDGETARY BALANCE OF $19
MILLION. I WILL NOTE THERE WERE
ADDITIONAL RESERVES THAT ARE
LAYERED IN THERE. THOSE ARE NOT
NECESSARILY POLICY RESERVES.
THERE IS NO POLICY STIPULATION
ON THOSE, BUT THOSE ARE BASED
OFF GUIDANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH THE BUDGET OFFICE ABOUT
WHICH RESERVES MIGHT HELP FOR
THIS SIZE OF A FUND. IF YOU
LOOK AT THE BROADER FINANCIAL
PLAN IN THE CITY BUDGET YOU WIL
SEE THE ENDING AND RESERVE
BALANCE IS POSITIVE -- BUT
REALLY THE KEY METRIC FOR THIS
ANALYSIS IS THE FUND BALANCE,
WHICH IS POSITIVE IN BOTH YEARS
UNFORTUNATELY THESE ARE THE
REVENUE PROJECTIONS FROM LAST
FALL AND AS WE KNOW, NEXT
SLIDE, THOSE PROJECTIONS HAVE
CHANGED. SO, ON AVERAGE, THE
CHANGE FROM 2022, 2022 THROUGH
2024, IS ABOUT $28 MILLION. SO
LOWER REVENUES. THE ACTUAL
ACTIVITY. SO, ACTUAL SPENDING
THAT WAS LOWER THAN BUDGETED
FOR 2022 OF ABOUT $170 MILLION.
$101 MILLION IS CARRYFORWARD,
SO AGAIN THERE WAS AUTOMATIC
CARRYFORWARDS. FOR THINGS THA
HAVE SOME LEGAL REASON THAT
THEY AUTOMATICALLY CARRY FORWAR
TO NEXT YEAR AND THEN LATER
THIS MORNING WE WILL COVER THE
REQUEST FOR CARRYFORWARD OF TH
JUMPSTART FUND MONIES INTO 2023
>> IS THE $55.1 MILLION IN
CARRYFORWARD REQUESTED IN THE
UPCOMING CARRYFORWARD ORDINANCE
A GOOD EXAMPLE OF WHAT THE VICE
CHAIR WAS REFERENCING IN TERMS
OF THE UNDERSPEND IN ACTUALITY
MUCH HIGHER THAN 10 OR $20
MILLION A YEAR? SO, $55.1
MILLION IN CARRYFORWARD, IS
THAT A GOOD EXAMPLE OF WHERE WE
SEE A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE ON
HOW MUCH CARRYFORWARD WILL BE,
VERSUS THIS ACTUAL BEING $55.1
MILLION?
>> THANK YOU FOR THE QUESTION,
MADAM CHAIR. THOUGH THEY ARE
KIND OF FROM THE SAME PLACE,
THEY ARE KIND OF TWO DIFFERENT
THINGS. SO, THE CARRYFORWARD IS
GOING TO BE MONEY THAT WAS NOT
SPENT, BUT THAT SHALL BE SPENT
AND IT NEEDS TO BE AUTOMATICALL
CARRY FORWARD TO MEET SOME
INVOICE PAYMENT THAT IS
EXPECTED OR TO JUST FULFILL SOM
PROGRAM PURPOSE. SO IN THIS
CONTEXT THE $55.1 MILLION IS
THE LATTER. SO THERE IS THAT
AMOUNT IN THE JUMPSTART FUND
THAT IS FOR A PURPOSE IN THE
BUDGET THAT HAS NOT YET BEEN
SPENT, BUT IT DOES INTEND TO B
SPENT IN THE CURRENT YEAR.
UNDERSPEND ALSO DEALS WITH
EXPENDITURES. HOWEVER, THAT IS
MONEY THAT IS STRICTLY BUDGETE
AND WAS NOT SPENT FOR THE
PURPOSE. SO A REALLY GREAT
EXAMPLE OF THIS IS SALARY
SAVINGS. YOU HAVE MONEY IN THE
BUDGET TO PAY FOR A SALARY AN
THE INCUMBENT IN THAT POSITION
LEAVES THREE QUARTERS OF THE
WAY THROUGH THE YEAR, SO YOU
HAVE ONE QUARTER'S WORTH OF
SALARY THAT HAS NOT BEEN SPENT
AND THAT MONEY JUST DROPS TO TH
BALANCE OF THE FUND. SO THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO,
THOUGH THEY BOTH DEAL WITH
MONEY THAT WAS NOT SPENT IN TH
PRIOR YEAR. THE KEY DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THEM IS THAT IN ONE
CASE OF CARRYFORWARDS, THE MONE
WILL BE SPENT. IN THE CASE OF
UNDERSPEND, THE MONEY WILL NOT
BE SPENT. SO IN THIS REGARD THE
$55 MILLION IS NOT RELATED TO
THE UNDERSPEND IN THE GENERAL
FUND. TWO DIFFERENT FUNDS, TWO
DIFFERENT SIDES OF EXPENDITURES
MONEY THAT WILL NOT BE SPENT.
AND I SEE A QUESTION.
>> THE 31.8 IS THE MORE
ACCURATE NUMBER TO LOOK AT TO
MAKE THE POINT THAT WAS
DESCRIBED EARLIER.
>> ACTUALLY, MADAM CHAIR, THE
GENERAL FUND UNDERSPEND IS $57
MILLION. THAT WAS PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY REVENUES THAT CAME IN
LOWER THAN EXPECTED AND SO THA
IS HOW YOU GET TO THE $134
MILLION. BUT I DID SEE A
QUESTION FROM COUNCILMEMBER
NELSON.
>> BEFORE WE GO TO THAT I WANT
TO FLAG FOR FOLKS THAT WE DO
HAVE TWO ADDITIONAL AGENDA ITEM
THAT INCLUDE A POSSIBLE VOTE, S
IS IT POSSIBLE TO KEEP YOU ALL
UNTIL NOON? OKAY, SEEING NODS.
COUNCILMEMBER NELSON. PLEASE G
AHEAD, COUNCILMEMBER.
>> I THINK THAT IS OKAY, BUT I
NEED TO CHECK MY BOSSES HERE.
ANYWAY I AM STUCK ON THE $107
MILLION UNDERSPEND, BECAUSE WHE
I LOOK AT PAGE 11 OF CENTRAL
STAFF'S MEMO, IT SAYS THAT
REVENUE FORECAST, BASED ON THE
APRIL PROJECTION, THE 2022
ACTUAL JUMPSTART REVENUE WOULD
BE 253 AND SO IF WE HAVE AN
UNDERSPEND OF $107 MILLION, W
HAVE ONLY SPENT ABOUT $146
MILLION AND YOU JUST MENTIONED
SALARY SAVINGS FOR POSITIONS
THAT ARE FUNDED BY THE JUMPSTAR
FUND AND I AM ASSUMING THAT ALL
OF THE OTHER SALARIES. WHAT
ELSE IS DRIVING THAT UNDERSPEND
AND MAYBE WE COULD HAVE THIS
OFF-LINE, BUT THAT SEEMS LIKE A
LOT, THE UNDERSPEND.
>> THANK YOU FOR THE QUESTION,
COUNCILMEMBER NELSON. THIS IS
PERFECT BECAUSE IT RELATES TO
THE PRIOR QUESTION. THE
DIFFERENCE ON MONEY THAT HAS NO
BEEN SPENT, THAT WILL NOT BE
SPENT, AND MONEY THAT HAS NOT
BEEN SPENT, BUT WILL BE. SO TH
$107 MILLION FROM LAST YEAR THA
HAS NOT BEEN SPENT, $101
MILLION IS INTENDING TO BE
SPENT THROUGH AN AUTOMATIC
CARRYFORWARD PROCESS OR THROUG
THE UPCOMING CARRYFORWARD BILL
THAT WILL BE DISCUSSED THIS
MORNING. SO, WITH THAT IN MIND
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN $107
MILLION AND 101 IS THE ACTUAL
MONEY THAT GOES TO BALANCE THE
FUND. SO THAT IS THE UNSPENT
APPROPRIATION THAT DROPS TO CAS
BALANCE IN THE FUND.
>> I GET THAT, BUT THAT WAS LAS
YEAR. SO WE DIDN'T SPEND ALMOS
HALF OF THE REVENUE. ARE WE
BEING OVER AMBITIOUS IN WHAT WE
THINK WE CAN GET OUT THE DOOR
WITH THESE DOLLARS? THAT IS KIN
OF WHERE I AM COMING FROM.
>> COUNCILMEMBER NELSON, WE CAN
LOOK MORE SPECIFICALLY AT WHAT
MAKES UP THAT $107 MILLION. I
DON'T HAVE ALL OF THAT
INFORMATION IN FRONT OF ME
RIGHT NOW, BUT I WILL SAY IN
GENERAL THE JUMPSTART FUND AND
THE EXPENDITURES IT IS
SUPPORTING, THE PROGRAMS AND
SERVICES ARE RELATIVELY NEW.
SOME DEPARTMENTS WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER IN THE FIRST
FEW YEARS AT GETTING MONEY OUT
THE DOOR. AS THE OFFICE OF
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ESTABLISHES NEW PROGRAMS AND
GETS THOSE DOLLARS OUT THE DOOR
SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT, IN THE
LONG TERM IF WE CONTINUE TO SE
THIS LEVEL OF SPEND AND
CARRYFORWARD ON THE JUMPSTART
FUND, I THINK THAT WOULD BE
WORTH REVISITING. IN THE FIRST
COUPLE OF YEARS I DO NOT THINK
IT IS THAT UNUSUAL TO SEE MONEY
CARRYFORWARD AND PARTICULARLY
BECAUSE A BIG PORTION OF THE
JUMPSTART FUNDS IS FOR THINGS
LIKE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS IN
AFFORDABLE HOUSING AND THE
EQUITABLE DEVELOPMENT
INITIATIVE, THAT OFTEN TAKE A
LITTLE TIME TO DEVELOP THOSE
PROJECTS AND START SPENDING
THAT DOWN THE LINE. SO WE WILL
FOLLOW UP WITH MORE DETAILS, BU
IN THE FIRST YEARS OF A NEW
FUND AND NEW PROGRAMS AND
SERVICES, I DON'T THINK IT IS
UNUSUAL. BUT IF WE SEE THIS TWO
YEARS FROM NOW, THREE YEARS FRO
NOW, I THINK WE WOULD WANT TO
REVISIT WHAT CAN REASONABLY BE
SPENT IN A GIVEN YEAR.
>> COUNCILMEMBER, I APPRECIATE
THAT QUESTION. I WOULD LOVE TO
WORK WITH YOU AS WELL ON THAT
BECAUSE I KNOW ONE OF THE
CATEGORIES WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A
HOLD PATTERN FOR WANTING TO HAV
MORE INPUT FROM THE DEPARTMENT
AND COMMUNITY HAS BEEN IN THE
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
AND THANKS TO THE DEPARTMENT
OVER THERE. THEY HAVE A
BLUEPRINT NOW FOR HOW TO SPEND
THOSE DOLLARS GOING FORWARD. S
A LOT OF THE EARLY INVESTMENTS
IN THE ECONOMIC RESILIENCE
CATEGORY HAD BEEN TEMPORARY
INVESTMENTS, AS THE DEPARTMENT
WORKED ON WHAT THE OVERALL
BLUEPRINT WOULD LOOK LIKE. SO I
AM EXCITED ABOUT THE FUTURE WOR
TO COME THROUGH ECONOMIC
RESILIENCE AND THROUGH THE
DEPARTMENT THAT YOU HAVE PURVIE
OVER AND WOULD LIKE TO TALK MOR
ABOUT HOW WE MAKE SURE THOSE
DOLLARS ARE REALLY GOING IN AND
OUT THE DOOR QUICKLY, BUT I
THINK IT IS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF
MAKING SURE THAT WE HAD A
BLUEPRINT FOR DEPLOYING THOSE
DOLLARS THAT WAS INFORMED BY
CONVERSATIONS WITH SMALL
BUSINESSES AND COMMUNITY
MEMBERS, WHICH THEY HAVE DONE A
GREAT JOB OF DOING, SO, LOOKING
FORWARD TO TALKING MORE WITH
YOU ON THAT AND DIRECTOR
McINTYRE AS WELL. OKAY. AND
THANKS TO MY COLLEAGUES FOR
YOUR WILLINGNESS TO STAY ANOTHE
30 MINUTES. WE WILL ENDEAVOR TO
WRAP THIS UP WITH ADDITIONAL
QUESTIONS AND GET TO THE OTHER
TWO ITEMS AND I WOULD ALSO SAY
IF IT IS ACCURATE, TOM, THERE I
NO ACTION TODAY. THIS IS AN
OVERVIEW THAT ALLOWS US TO HAVE
MORE CONVERSATIONS, ESPECIALLY
IN JUNE AND JULY AND HOPEFULLY
MORE CONVERSATIONS TO COME WITH
THE MAYOR'S OFFICE AND CBO AS
WELL.
>> THAT IS CORRECT, MADAM CHAIR
THIS IS JUST INFORMATION TO HEL
-- THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR.
SO, A WRAP UP FROM THE PRIOR
SLIDE. THE NEGATIVE REVENUE
FORECAST RESULTED IN A NEGATIV
FUND BALANCE. SO THE PLAN IN
THE JUMPSTART FUND WAS NO LONGE
BALANCED. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
ADMINISTRATIVE MEASURES. THESE
ARE INTENTIONS OF THE EXECUTIVE
ONE THAT I COVERED EARLIER IS T
REDUCE THE JUMPSTART FOR THE
GENERAL FUND BY $38.7 MILLION
THIS YEAR AND ALSO THERE IS A
DIRECTIVE TO UNDERSPEND
DEPARTMENTAL APPROPRIATIONS IN
THE BUDGET. TOTALING ABOUT $14
MILLION. THE OFFICE OF ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT, $2.2 MILLION
REDUCTION. OFFICE OF HOUSING,
$9 MILLION REDUCTION. COMMUNITY
DEVELOPMENT, REDUCTION. AND TH
OFFICE OF SUSTAINABILITY AND
ENVIRONMENT, $1.3 MILLION
REDUCTION. ALL OF THESE WOULD
BE ADMINISTRATIVE MEASURES. THE
COUNCIL SETS THE KIND OF AMOUN
OF THE APPROPRIATION BILL THE
EXECUTIVE CAN UNDERSPEND. SO
EACH ONE OF THESE CAN BE DONE
ADMINISTRATIVELY. OH, ONE FINA
MEASURE, THIS KIND OF GETS TO
CHANGE ON THE SPREADSHEET, WHIC
WOULD BE TO REDUCE THE 2024
RESERVES TO ZERO. SO THEY WERE
BUILDING UP TO A FAIRLY SIZABL
AMOUNT. GIVEN THE REVENUE
PRESSURES IN 2024. AND FINALLY
FOR 2024, GIVEN THAT THERE WAS
STILL A NEGATIVE UNRESERVED
BALANCE, THERE ARE CBO BUDGET
INSTRUCTIONS GIVEN TO
DEPARTMENTS TO REDUCE JUMPSTART
APPROPRIATIONS. TO PREPARE
PROPOSALS TO REDUCE
APPROPRIATIONS FOR 2024 BY 15%
WHICH WOULD GENERATE A
REDUCTION IF THEY WERE ALL DONE
AT THAT LEVEL. HOWEVER IT IS NO
KNOWN WHICH OF THOSE WILL BE I
THE 24 ENDORSED BUDGET. ONE
POINT ABOUT THESE. I DID SAY
THAT THEY ARE ADMINISTRATIVE
MEASURES, SO COUNCIL COULD
LEGISLATE ONE OR ALL OF THEM IN
THE CURRENT BUDGET AT THE
DISCRETION OF COUNCIL. SO I
JUST WANTED TO MAKE THAT POINT.
TO EXPRESS THE LEGISLATIVE
INTENT AND ALSO TO HELP TRACK
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
JUMPSTART FUND AND THE GENERAL
FUND.
>> QUESTIONS FROM COUNCILMEMBER
PETERSON?
>> THANK YOU, CHAIR MOSQUEDA.
THE SLIDE SEEMS IMPORTANT TO
ME, SINCE WE HEARD FROM SOME
SPEAKERS TODAY. PUBLIC SPEAKER
CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A UNILATERAL HOLD ON MONEY
THAT THE CITY COUNCIL AUTHORIZE
IN THIS CALENDAR YEAR, WHEN WE
HAVE ONLY SEVEN MONTHS LEFT IN
THE CALENDAR YEAR. IT SEEMS LIK
THERE COULD BE OTHER WAYS TO
FIND $14 MILLION, THEN NOT
FOLLOWING THROUGH WITH WHAT TH
MAJORITY OF THE CITY COUNCIL
AUTHORIZED JUST A FEW MONTHS
AGO. I KNOW IN MY DISTRICT A
COUPLE OF YEARS AGO THERE WAS A
HOLD SIMILAR TO THIS WHERE NOW
THE NORTHEAST BRANCH OF THE
LIBRARY DOES NOT HAVE A COOLIN
CENTER. THERE WERE HEAT WAVES
LAST YEAR AND THERE WILL BE HE
WAVES THIS SUMMER. BECAUSE OF
HOLD, IT ACTUALLY MISSED TWO
SUMMERS OF TRYING TO GET THAT
INVESTMENT COMPLETED FOR THE
COMMUNITY. SO I AM CONCERNED
ABOUT A UNILATERAL HOLD BY THE
EXECUTIVE BRANCH ON THINGS THE
CITY COUNCIL AUTHORIZED,
ESPECIALLY WHEN IT IS $14
MILLION. IT SEEMS THAT COULD B
DEALT WITH A DIFFERENT WAY. WE
ARE HEARING FROM CONSTITUENTS
WHO ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS, A
WELL. SO, YOU TALKED ABOUT
LEGISLATING TO ADOPT THESE
HOLDS, BUT IS THERE A WAY TO
LEGISLATE TO REQUIRE THE
SPENDING? IT SEEMS LIKE WE
ALREADY DID THAT IN NOVEMBER.
>> I WILL TAKE A FIRST SHOT AT
THAT. ULTIMATELY, AS TOM
DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY, THE
COUNCIL'S AUTHORITY IS TO SET
THE LEVEL OF APPROPRIATION. ONE
OPTION THE COUNCIL COULD
CONSIDER IS LEGISLATING A
BIGGER REDUCTION TO THE
JUMPSTART FUND TRANSFER. SO
THAT THERE WOULD BE, YOU KNOW,
YOU BASICALLY REDUCE THE
JUMPSTART FUND TRANSFERRED TO
THE GENERAL FUND BY AN
ADDITIONAL $14 MILLION, BECAUS
THERE ARE GENERAL FUND RESOURCE
AVAILABLE AND THEN THERE COULD
BE FUNDS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
THAT $14 MILLION, THOUGH I WILL
SAY THAT THE EXECUTIVE STILL HA
THE ADMINISTRATIVE AUTHORITY TO
REQUIRE THE UNDERSPEND. THE
OTHER OPTION AVAILABLE ALSO
REQUIRES AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXECUTIVE. THERE IS $14 MILLIO
SITTING IN THE JUMPSTART
PLANNING RESERVES, SO COUNCIL
COULD REQUEST TO THE EXECUTIVE
TO USE THAT $14 MILLION TO
SUPPORT THE 2023 EXPENDITURES,
KNOWING THAT AS YOU GO INTO THE
2024 BUDGET ADJUSTMENTS, YOU
MAY NEED TO REDUCE SOME
JUMPSTART FUNDING OR GENERAL
FUND SPENDING. TO FULLY
BALANCE, BECAUSE THESE NUMBERS
WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE. BUT I
DO THINK THERE ARE OPTIONS
AVAILABLE TO HOLD TO THE 2023
COMMITMENTS AND THIS FALL YOU
ALL WILL BE ENGAGED IN A
CONVERSATION ABOUT WHAT
ADJUSTMENTS YOU WANT TO MAKE TO
WHAT YOU ENDORSE FOR 2024.
>> THANK YOU FOR ANSWERING THAT
I LOOK FORWARD TO WORKING WITH
MY COLLEAGUES ON THE SECOND
FLOOR ON THIS.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH,
COUNCILMEMBER PEDERSEN. I, TOO
WANT TO UNDERSCORE THE
IMPORTANCE OF THE LEGISLATIVE
APPROACH WE COULD TAKE ON THIS.
I WILL REMAIN EVER OPTIMISTIC
THAT THE EXECUTIVE AND
LEGISLATIVE BRANCH WILL FIND A
COMPROMISE TO MOVE FORWARD TO
ALLOW THE 2023 EXPENDITURES TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. I AM CONCERNE
THAT A HOLD HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTE
TO THE DEPARTMENTS TO THE TUNE
OF WHAT YOU ARE SEEING ON THE
SCREEN. IT MEANS $9 MILLION LES
FOR THE REDUCTION. $2 MILLION
IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WHEN WE
ARE TRYING TO OPEN SMALL
BUSINESSES AND KEEP SMALL
BUSINESSES OPEN NOT ONLY IN THE
DOWNTOWN CORE, BUT IN POCKETS
AROUND THE CITY. IT ALSO
INCLUDES WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT
AND INVESTMENTS AND WHETHER
THOSE DOLLARS WERE PROMISED OR
OUT THE DOOR. THAT IS A
REDUCTION IN FUNDING THAT COULD
DIRECTLY GO TO SMALL BUSINESS
AND ECONOMIC RESILIENCE AND TH
SAME IS TRUE OF THE $1.3 MILLIO
REDUCTION THAT GOES TO THE
EQUITABLE DEVELOPMENT INITIATIV
AND SUSTAINABILITY AND THE
ENVIRONMENT. COUNCILMEMBER
PEDERSEN GAVE A GREAT EXAMPLE
OF HOW PROJECTS THAT ARE NOT YE
UNDERWAY ARE PLACED ON HOLD AND
IT COULD BE YEARS LATER. WE AR
STILL WAITING FOR COOLING
CENTERS AND ENVIRONMENTAL
JUSTICE STRATEGIES TO BE
DEPLOYED AND WE KNOW THAT THE
GREEN NEW DEAL INVESTMENTS WERE
A KEY COMPONENT OF WHY AND HOW
THE COMMUNITY CAME TOGETHER TO
CREATE SUCH A ROBUST COALITION
THAT ASKED FOR THE SPENDING
CATEGORIES AND I WOULD ALSO SAY
THE SPENDING CATEGORIES WERE NO
CONTROVERSIAL. UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT AMONG COUNCIL AND
SIGNED INTO STATUTE TO MAKE SUR
THESE CATEGORIES STAYED TRUE AN
WERE HELD HARMLESS. I WOULD
LOVE TO CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONVERSATIONS ABOUT HOW TO MAKE
SURE BOTH THE EXECUTIVE AND
LEGISLATIVE BRANCH ARE ABLE TO
CONTINUE TO FULFILL THESE
COMMITMENTS THAT WE MADE TO THE
COMMUNITY, ESPECIALLY NOT
RESPONDING TO AN APRIL FORECAS
THAT HAS TRADITIONALLY BEEN OFF
COMPARED TO OUR AUGUST FORECAST
SO AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE EVEN
THE APRIL FORECAST, EVEN WITH
THE REDUCTIONS IN JUMPSTART
BEING SLIGHTLY LOWER, WE ARE
STILL PROJECTING TO BE IN THE
SURPLUS, HAVING MORE REVENUE
FROM JUMPSTART THAN THE
EXPENDITURES PLANNED AND TO ME
PUTTING ON HOLD $14 MILLION IN
THE JUMPSTART EXPENDITURE PLAN
FOR 2023 WHILE WE HAVE $14
MILLION IN JUMPSTART RESERVES
AND $31.8 MILLION AND POSSIBLE
FUNDS AVAILABLE FOR US IN 2023
GIVEN THE UNDERSPEND. WE HAVE
SUFFICIENT FUNDING TO COVER A
$14 MILLION HOLD ON THIS YEAR
AND I THINK A BROAD COMMITMENT
TO WANT TO WORK COLLECTIVELY
ONCE WE SEE THE AUGUST FORECAST
NUMBERS, TO MORE ACCURATELY
PROJECT THAT WE NEED TO ADDRESS
ANY REDUCTIONS. TO ME THIS IS
ABOUT MAINTAINING OUR
COMMITMENTS, STAYING TRUE TO
OUR PROMISE AND KEEPING OUR WOR
WHEN THERE HAS BEEN A GOOD FAIT
NEGOTIATION BETWEEN THE BRANCHE
ON HOW WE WOULD USE HIGHER THA
ANTICIPATED REVENUE TO SUPPORT
THE GENERAL FUND, MAINTAIN OUR
INVESTMENTS AS CODIFIED IN 2020
AND THEN HELPING TO FIND THOSE
SOLUTIONS. I DON'T THINK ANYONE
IS SAYING WE WANT TO BE RIGID
AND SAYING NO. IF WE OFFER THE
FLEXIBILITY FOR THE JUMPSTART
RESERVES. IF WE OFFER
FLEXIBILITY FOR HOW MUCH NEEDS
TO BE PAID BACK INTO JUMPSTART
AT THE END OF THE YEAR, IF
GENERAL FUND CONTINUES TO GROW,
THOSE ARE TWO POSSIBLE WAYS WE
CAN HELP FIND COMMON GROUND TO
MEET IN THE MIDDLE, WITHOUT
HOLDING BACK ON FUNDING THAT
COULD RESORT RESULTED IN
EQUITABLE DEVELOPMENT
INVESTMENTS. I WILL HAVE MORE T
SAY ABOUT THAT IN A MINUTE, BUT
I WANT TO UNDERSCORE THE
IMPORTANCE OF US WANTING TO
WORK COLLABORATIVELY WITH THE
EXECUTIVE AND THE MAYOR AND THE
CBO TEAM TO FIND THE APPROACH
TO MAKE SURE THAT IT IS NOT
WITHHELD THIS YEAR. GIVEN, AS
COUNCILMEMBER PEDERSEN SAID,
THESE WERE DECISIONS MADE A FEW
MONTHS AGO AND WE HAVE OTHER
POCKETS TO LEAN INTO. WHETHER I
IS JUMPSTART RESERVES OR THE
UNDERSPEND WE ARE PROJECTING.
THERE IS A WAY TO MOVE FORWARD
THIS YEAR AND COLLECTIVELY PLAN
AFTER WE SEE THE AUGUST
FORECAST. COUNCILMEMBER, VICE
CHAIR, PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> I DON'T WANT TO BE
REPETITIVE, BUT I AGREE WITH
MADAM CHAIR AND COUNCILMEMBER
PEDERSEN THAT THERE ARE MANY
LEVERS WE HAVE AVAILABLE.
JUMPSTART RESERVE GREATER THAN
ANTICIPATED. GENERAL FUND
REVENUE FOR 2023. THE
UNDERSPEND FROM 2022. THE
ASSUMPTIONS AROUND FUTURE
UNDERSPEND. THERE IS A LOT WE
CAN WORK WITH TO ADDRESS THIS,
WITH AN UNDERSTANDING THAT THES
ARE ALL QUESTIONS WE SHOULD AN
WILL REVISIT WITH THE AUGUST
REVENUE UPDATE.
>> RIGHT. THANK YOU, COLLEAGUES
PLEASE GO AHEAD, TOM, IF THERE
IS ADDITIONAL MATERIAL YOU WOUL
LIKE TO COVER.
>> THANK YOU, MADAM CHAIR. SO
THIS JUST WRAPS UP IF THE
EXECUTIVE MEASURES WERE THE ONL
PLAN APPLIED, HOW THE BUDGET
WOULD LOOK. JUST TO TOUCH ON
YOUR POINTS THAT WERE IN
DISCUSSION, THERE ARE ALTERNATE
WAYS TO TACKLE THIS. INCLUDING
MAKING THE RESERVE IN 2023
ZERO AND MAKING THE UNDERSPEND
ZERO. IT WOULD SOLVE IT. OR
INCREASING THE ADMINISTRATIVE
TRANSFER REDUCTION TO THE
GENERAL FUND BY $14 MILLION AND
REDUCING THE ADMINISTRATIVE
BUDGET. SO THOSE ARE CLEARLY
OPTIONS THAT ARE ON THE TABLE,
PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE GENERAL
FUND THIS YEAR. THAT IS A GOOD
TN TO THE NEXT SLIDE AND A LOT
OF THESE ITEMS HAVE BEEN PART
OF THE DISCUSSION THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THAT THE COUNCIL AND
MAYOR RECENTLY PASSED THE
ORDINANCE WHICH CODIFIES THE
CITY'S COMMITMENT TO RACIAL AND
SOCIAL JUSTICE, IT IS KIND OF
INCUMBENT ON THIS TYPE OF
ANALYSIS TO LOOK AT THE EFFECT
OF THE TRADE-OFF. SO, THE
JUMPSTART FUND WHEN IT WAS
PASSED IN 2020, OR THE PAYROLL
EXPENSE TAX AND SPENDING PAST
BACK IN 2020, IT ESSENTIALLY
LEVIES A PAYROLL EXPENSE TAX O
SOME OF THE LARGEST BUSINESSES
IN THE CITY. AND THEN IT
ALLOCATES THAT MONEY FOR A
SERIES OF EQUITY EXPENDITURES
INCLUDING AFFORDABLE HOUSING,
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPROVEMENTS,
EQUITABLE DEVELOPMENT AND
REVITALIZATION. SO, THAT IS
KIND OF ONE OF THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE FUNDS IN THE CITY
TREASURY. I WOULD NOTE THAT
AFTER APPLYING THE 2023
ADMINISTRATIVE REDUCTIONS IN
THE EXECUTIVE'S PROPOSAL, THAT
THE ACTUAL 2023 REVISED BUDGET
WOULD BE BELOW THE AMOUNT FOR
THAT YEAR IN THE ORIGINAL SPEND
PLAN. THE ORIGINAL PLAN AS YOU
NOTED, MADAM CHAIR, WAS BASED
OFF THE LOWER REVENUE ESTIMATE
THAT HOLDS TO THIS DAY IN TERMS
OF EXPECTED REVENUE. SO IT IS
PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE
JUMPSTART FUND, WITH LESS
PRESSURE ON THE GENERAL FUND,
GIVEN THAT THE GENERAL FUND
APPEARS TO HAVE ADDITIONAL
RESOURCES TO APPLY IN THE
CURRENT YEAR AND I BELIEVE
THERE MIGHT BE A FINAL SLIDE.
NO, THERE IS NOT. BUT THAT IS
THE KEY POINT, THAT THERE MAY B
OTHER WAYS TO TACKLE THIS
CHALLENGE TO KEEP THE INTEGRITY
OF THE BIANNUAL PLAN WITHOUT
HAVING THAT REDUCTION OF THE
EQUITY IN THE JUMPSTART FUND,
PARTICULARLY IN THE FRAMEWORK
AS PROPOSED WHEN ORIGINALLY
PASSED BACK IN 2020.
>> THANK YOU AND THANKS FOR
BRINGING UP THE EQUITY
FRAMEWORK AND THE NEED FOR US T
CONTINUE TO LOOK AT HOW THOSE
ORGANIZATIONS AND COMMUNITIES
THAT HAVE HAD LESS INVESTMENT
HISTORICALLY HAVE MAYBE LESS
CAPACITY TO QUICKLY RESPOND AN
DEPLOY THE DOLLARS. HOW WE CAN
MAKE SURE WE STILL FOLLOW
THROUGH OUR COMMITMENT TO MAKE
THOSE INVESTMENTS WHEN NEEDED.
ALY, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, I WAS
WONDERING IF YOU HAD THE CHANCE
TO WORK ANY MAGIC ON THE
QUESTION OF THE BAR CHART OR I
THAT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT?
AM SEEING SOME NODDING. TOM,
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR
PRESENTATION AND THANKS FOR TH
SLIDES TO CORRESPOND WITH THE 1
PAGE MEMO THAT YOU SENT AROUND.
THAT IS VERY HELPFUL. WE WILL,
AGAIN, GET THOSE POSTED TO THE
FINAL AGENDA THAT GOES UP
ONLINE.
>> I DO HAVE IT READY. I WILL
ADMIT IT IS NOT THE PRETTIEST
OF GRAPHS, BUT I WILL GO AHEAD
AND DO THIS IN REAL TIME. JUST
THE SAME. SO THIS CHART IS
SHOWING, I THINK, WHAT THE
COMMITTEE WAS REQUESTING. DO I
NEED TO ZOOM IN MORE?
>> YOU DO NEED TO ZOOM IN MORE.
THANK YOU FOR DOING THIS,
THOUGH. WE LOVE TO SEE AN EXCEL
FORM IN RAW FORM ON SEATTLE
CHANNEL, SO THANK YOU. IT JUST
NEEDS TO BE CENTERED A LITTLE
MORE AND ZOOMED IN. A LITTLE
BIT MORE. THAT IS LOOKING PRETT
GOOD.
>> OKAY AND I WILL SHARE THIS
AROUND AND WE CAN ADD IT TO THE
COMMITTEE MATERIALS, BUT THE
BLUE LINE STARTING IN 2022 SHOW
WHAT THE JUMPSTART FUND REVENUE
ESTIMATES WERE IN 2020. THE
ORANGE BARS ARE WHAT THE
NOVEMBER FORECAST WAS AND THE
GRAY IS THE APRIL REVISED
FORECAST AND THE LIGHTER BLUE
LINE GOING ACROSS IS JUST
SHOWING HOW THE NOVEMBER
FORECAST AND APRIL FORECAST
BOTH SHOW PROJECTED JUMPSTART
REVENUES COMING IN HIGHER THAN
WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED IN 2020,
WHEN THE BUDGET WAS ADOPTED.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WORKIN
QUICKLY TO PROVIDE THAT VISUAL
OF WHAT COUNCILMEMBER HERBOLD
AND I WERE ARTICULATING. I
THINK THIS ALSO ECHOES WHAT WE
HEARD IN THE LETTER THAT WE
RECEIVED FROM SOME COMMUNITY
PARTNERS. AND IN THE LETTER THA
HAS BEEN CIRCULATED IT SAYS WE
CLEARLY UNDERSTOOD THE AGREEMEN
IN THE FALL BUDGET PROCESS TO
ALLOW JUMPSTART TO TEMPORARILY
FILL A GAP IN THE 2023-24
GENERAL FUND, AS PREDICATED ON
TWO COMMITMENTS. ONE, THAT WE
MAINTAIN THE $220 MILLION
INVESTMENT IN THE BASELINE
JUMPSTART CATEGORIES, ESTIMATED
TO BE AVAILABLE. WHEN THE
COUNCIL PASSED THE ORDINANCE IN
2020. COUNCIL PASSED A SPENDIN
PLAN WITH MODERATE GROWTH
PROJECTIONS OF 2% PER YEAR. S
AT LEAST FOR 2023 AND 2024 WE
HAVE HELD OUR SELF AT THAT BLUE
BAR AND PUT ANY HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED REVENUE BACK INTO
THE GENERAL FUND, WITH THE HOPE
THAT WHEN ADDITIONAL REVENUE
COMES AROUND IN 2025 AND BEYOND
THAT THE FULL RECEIVED
INVESTMENTS FROM JUMPSTART WILL
GO BACK INTO FULLY FUNDING THE
SPEND PLAN. WE TEMPORARILY
ALLOW FOR THAT FLEXIBILITY AND
THE SECONDARY COMPONENT WAS,
ACCORDING TO THE LETTER, WE
REPLENISHED JUMPSTART EQUITY
INVESTMENTS IF GENERAL FUND
REVENUES ARE HIGHER THAN ASSUME
IN THE BUDGET, HOLDING BACK ON
$14 MILLION IN JUMPSTART
REVENUES THIS YEAR VIOLATES BOT
PRINCIPLES, THE LETTER FROM TH
COMMUNITY SAID. I THINK THAT IS
AN IMPORTANT VISUAL AND
APPRECIATE VICE CHAIR HERBOLD'S
REQUEST FOR THAT AND MY
SUGGESTION, AS WELL. THANK YOU
SO MUCH TO CENTRAL STAFF ARE
CRAFTING IT. VICE CHAIR HERBOLD
>> THANK YOU. THE LETTER YOU
JUST READ FROM I THINK GIVES A
CLEAR INDICATION OF THE
UNDERSTANDING OF THE AGREEMENT
WITH THE EXECUTIVE AND THE
PRINCIPALS. I RECOGNIZE OF
COURSE -- I'M SORRY, THAT
BUDGET DIRECTOR DINGLEY IS NOT
HERE WITH US TODAY. BUT IS
THERE ANYONE WHO CAN
CHARACTERIZE THE EXECUTIVE'S
INTERPRETATION OF THE
AGREEMENTS THAT WE MADE DURING
BUDGET?
>> I AM NOT SEEING ANYBODY JUMP
IN.
>> I HOPE THERE IS A DIFFERENCE
IT WOULD BE HELPFUL TO
UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCE.
>> AND IF THERE IS A DIFFERENCE
THAT IS VERY FRUSTRATING, RIGHT
AT LEAST FROM THE CHAIR'S
PERSPECTIVE, BECAUSE I SAID
MULTIPLE TIMES IN THE COMMUNITY
AND HERE ON THE DS ON SEATTLE
CHANNEL THAT WE HAD AN AGREEMEN
TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE
SPEND PLAN INVESTMENTS FOR 2023
AND 24. I REPEATEDLY TALKED
ABOUT HOW WE WOULD HOLD THOSE
LINES AND ONLY USE HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED REVENUE FOR THE
GENERAL FUND. SO MY HOPE, VICE
CHAIR HERBOLD, AND IT IS A FAIR
QUESTION FOR CBO. MY HOPE IS
THAT THIS IS STILL AN ONGOING
CONVERSATION WITH CBO AND THE
MARIST TEAM AND THAT WE CAN
REVISIT WHAT THAT DISCUSSION WA
AND HOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FORWARD. ESPECIALLY AS YOU
NOTED GIVEN THE RESERVE FUNDING
OF $14 MILLION FOR JUMPSTART
AND THE $31.8 MILLION IN
UNPROGRAMMED AND UNDERSPEND
DOLLARS IN 2023. I STILL SEE
CENTRAL STAFF ON THE LINE, TOO.
NOT TO PUT YOU ON THE SPOT, BU
IN LIEU OF HAVING AN OPPORTUNIT
TO HAVE THAT DISCUSSION WITH CB
TODAY, IS THERE ANYTHING ELSE
YOU WOULD OFFER FROM A
NONPARTISAN TECHNICAL
PERSPECTIVE ON WHAT WE
DISCUSSED DURING BUDGET?
>> YEAH, THANK YOU, CHAIR
MOSQUEDA. I CAN'T SPEAK FOR THE
EXECUTIVE OR WHAT THEIR
UNDERSTANDING WAS, BUT I CAN SA
THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
CHALLENGE EACH YEAR SINCE THE
JUMPSTART TAX WAS ADOPTED. I
WOULD POINT TO THE LEGISLATION
THAT WAS TRANSMITTED WITH THE
BUDGET FROM THE EXECUTIVE FOR
THE JUMPSTART FUND, WHICH WOULD
HAVE ENSURED FIRST THAT THE
GENERAL FUND TRANSFER WAS
PROTECTED. BEFORE JUMPSTART
SPENDING WAS PROTECTED.
ULTIMATELY WHAT THE COUNCIL
ADOPTED WAS ENSURING THAT THE
JUMPSTART SPENDING AT THE 2020
ESTIMATED NUMBERS WERE PROTECTE
AND ANYTHING ABOVE THAT GOES T
THE GENERAL FUND. WHILE I CAN'T
SPEAK TO THEIR UNDERSTANDING OF
THE AGREEMENT, I WOULD SAY THA
SINCE JULY, 2020, EACH YEAR WE
HAVE RECEIVED LEGISLATION IN
THAT SPIRIT THAT IS
PRIORITIZING ENSURING THAT THE
GENERAL FUND IS BALANCED AND FO
REASONS RELATED TO THOSE CORE
SERVICES AND THAT SORT OF THING
AND THE COUNCIL HAS HELD TRUE
TO THE COMMITMENTS. I WOULD ALS
NOTE THAT THE BUDGET OFFICE, A
I SAID EARLIER, IS FACING
INCREASED COSTS. TO BE FAIR TO
WHAT THEY ARE TRYING TO BALANCE
HERE, THEY ARE SEEING THAT TO
AVOID CUTS IN THE FUTURE TO
SERVICES AND PROGRAMS THEY ARE
TRYING TO PRESERVE RESOURCES,
SO THERE IS FLEXIBILITY IN 2024
AND THESE ARE JUST HARD POLICY
CHOICES IN A RESOURCE
CONSTRAINED ENVIRONMENT.
>> THANK YOU. YOU KNOW, I
THINK THAT TO BE FAIR TO US,
TOO, AND I DON'T WANT TO SPEAK
ON BEHALF OF THE COUNCIL, BUT I
THINK WE HAVE ALSO BEEN WILLING
TO SHOW FLEXIBILITY IN HOW WE
SOLVE FOR THE REVENUE GAP AND
THINK THE REQUEST CONTINUES TO
BE TO ALLOW FOR THE 2023
EXPENSES TO MOVE FORWARD. GIVE
THAT WE HAVE RESERVES FOR
JUMPSTART ALONE, NOT TO MENTION
THE $90 MILLION COMBINED TOTAL
FOR THE TWO OTHER EMERGENCY
RESERVES THAT WE HAVE. WE HAVE
$31.8 MILLION IN ADDITIONAL
GENERAL FUND THAT COULD BE
AVAILABLE GIVEN THE PROJECTED
UNDERSPEND AND I THINK THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR US TO ALLOW
2023 EXPENSES TO MOVE FORWARD
AND THEN REVISIT THIS
CONVERSATION IN AUGUST WHEN WE
SEE THE FULL REVENUE FORECAST
AND IDENTIFY WHERE WE
COLLECTIVELY CAN OFFER
FLEXIBILITY. WHETHER THAT IS
REPAYMENT TO JUMPSTART OR USING
THE JUMPSTART EMERGENCY FUND. I
THINK THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY T
HAVE MORE DELIBERATIONS WITH
THE COMMUNITY AS WELL AS THE
EXECUTIVE ABOUT HOW TO ADDRESS
ANY SHORTFALL THAT WE ARE SEEIN
FOR 2024. GIVEN THAT WE ALL
KNOW THERE IS AN INCREASE IN
COST, BUT WE WANT TO STAY TRUE
TO THE PLAN. $9 MILLION HELD
BACK IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING MEAN
THAT CRITICAL PROJECTS THAT
COULD BE SPENT ON A PRODUCTION
MIGHT NOT GO FORWARD. WHILE WE
COULD BUILD THAT BACK IN AUGUST
IT IS NOT AN EQUITABLE WAY TO
APPLY FUNDING WHEN THERE IS
EXISTING FUNDING. IT MEANS
REDUCING INVESTMENTS OR
DELAYING TIMELINES AND THAT ALS
LIMITS ADDITIONAL COST. AND
GREEN NEW DEAL INVESTMENTS.
AGAIN, THESE ARE MOSTLY DOLLARS
THAT ARE HELPING SPUR LOCAL
RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL
CRISES THAT WE ARE SEEING AND
WOULD BE PAIRED WITH OTHER
DOLLARS. AM WORRIED ABOUT A
SLIPPERY SLOPE AND DECLINING
INVESTMENTS IN OUR COMMUNITY. I
LOOK FORWARD TO ADDRESSING THIS
WITH THE EXECUTIVE. I AM
COMMITTED TO IDENTIFYING WAYS
THAT WE CAN CLOSE GAPS
IDENTIFIED IN THE AUGUST
FORECAST AND ALSO COMMITTED TO
THE LONG-TERM NEEDS. I AM
HOPEFUL, COLLEAGUES, THAT WE CA
COME BACK AND FOLLOW THROUGH ON
WHAT I HOPE WERE GOOD FAITH
NEGOTIATIONS. IT FEELS LIKE A
WALK BACK ON THOSE AGREEMENTS
THAT WE HAVE. IT FEELS LIKE THE
TRAIL OF THE CONVERSATION THAT
WE COMMITTED TO COMMUNITY, THAT
WE WOULD HOLD TRUE TO THE 2020
SPEND PLAN, WHICH WAS $220
MILLION IN 2023 FROM JUMPSTART
AND WE ARE ALSO REALISTIC THAT
WE NEED TO ADDRESS REVENUE GAPS
THAT CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN THE
AUGUST REVENUE FORECAST. GIVEN
THE REVENUE STREAMS THAT ARE
POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE AT THIS
POINT WITH UNDERSPEND AND OUR
JUMPSTART RESERVES, I AM VERY
CONCERNED ABOUT THIS. SO,
LOOKING FORWARD TO HAVING THOSE
DISCUSSIONS WITH CBO, WITH THE
MARIST TEAM AND WITH THE
COMMUNITY AT LARGE. COLLEAGUES,
IS THERE ANYTHING MORE ON THIS
ITEM BEFORE WE CLOSE OUT? OKAY,
THANK YOU FOR THAT SUMMARY.
DIRECTOR PENNUCCI, THANK YOU FO
YOUR WORK AS WELL. THANKS FOR
THE QUICK ANALYSIS ON THE BAR
CHART AND WE WILL GET THAT
CENTER AROUND. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT WE ARE STILL SEEING
JUMPSTART REVENUES COME IN
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS PLANNED FO
EXPENDITURES, EVEN IF WE DON'T
REDUCE IT BY $14 MILLION. VERY
IMPORTANT. COLLEAGUES, I
PROMISE YOU THIS WILL BE FAST.
CENTRAL STAFF IS WITH US AND
INDICATED THESE ARE SHORT
PRESENTATIONS ON ITEMS THREE
AND FOUR, SO FOR THE SAKE OF
TIME LET'S READ ITEMS THREE AND
FOUR INTO THE RECORD. AND WALK
US THROUGH IT.
>> AGENDA ITEM NUMBER THREE, AN
ORDINANCE AMENDING ORDINANCE
126490. AND AND ORDINANCE
AMENDING ORDINANCE 126725 FOR
BRIEFING, DISCUSSION, AND A
POSSIBLE VOTE.
>> THANK YOU AND THANK YOU EDI
FOR BEING WITH US TODAY. I WIL
MOVE SWIFTLY. GOOD MORNING,
COUNCILMEMBERS AND CHAIR. I
GUESS IT IS MORNING, ONE MORE
MINUTE. I AM EDIN SISIC WITH
COUNCIL CENTRAL STAFF. IF YOU
MOVE TO THE NEXT SLIDE I WILL
PROVIDE A QUICK OVERVIEW OF HO
THE CITY BUDGET GETS ADJUSTED
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR, STARTING
WITH THE ADOPTED BUDGET AND
INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF
CARRYFORWARDS, WHICH I WILL
EXPLAIN SHORTLY, AS WELL. AND
SUPPLEMENTALS IMPROVED
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. THE
EXCEPTIONS BILL AFTER THE YEAR
IS COMPLETE AND THEN WE WILL GE
INTO SPECIFIC DETAILS AND
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE CARRYFORWARD
AND EXCEPTION BILLS BEFORE NEX
STEPS IN TERMS OF UPCOMING
BUDGET ADJUSTMENT PROCESSES. S
I WILL COVER ALL OF THESE
SLIDES MUCH QUICKER THAN I WAS
EXPECTING FOR THE SAKE OF TIME.
SO BY STATE LAW WE ARE REQUIRE
TO ADOPT A BUDGET 30 DAYS PRIOR
TO THE BEGINNING OF THE FISCAL
YEAR, WHICH WE DID ON NOVEMBER
29 LAST YEAR. FOR THE 2023
FISCAL YEAR. THAT WAS $7.4
BILLION. AND ALSO THE BUDGET
ADOPTION DOCUMENT INCLUDES A
REFERENCE TO THE MULTIYEAR
PROGRAM. FIRST-YEAR CAPITAL
INVESTMENTS ARE APPROPRIATED IN
THE BUDGET ADOPTION ITSELF. SO
NEXT SLIDE. MOVING INTO THE
OPERATING PHASE OF THE 2023
BUDGET YEAR. AUTOMATIC
CARRYFORWARD TAKES PLACE AND
THAT IS SORT OF A TECHNICAL
ADJUSTMENT THAT ACCOUNTS FOR AL
AUTOMATIC CARRYFORWARDS. FROM
THIS SLIDE, THE BIGGEST TAKE
AWAY IS A 1.9 AUTOMATIC
CARRYFORWARD INTO 2023 ACROSS
ALL CITY FUNDS. TWO THIRDS OF
WHICH IS CAPITAL BUDGET, WHICH
IS JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS IT
WAS LAST YEAR. SLIDE, THANK
YOU. SO, THE NEXT PIECE, WHICH
IS MOST RELEVANT TO OUR
CONVERSATION TODAY, IS REGARDIG
SUPPLEMENTALS. STATE LAW ALLOW
SUPPLEMENTALS TO TAKE PLACE AN
I HAVE PROVIDED MORE DETAILS ON
THIS IN THE MEMO ON PAGE 2.
STANDALONE, WHICH ARE MORE
SPECIFIC AND SINGLE SUBJECT, O
COMPREHENSIVE, WHICH IS WHAT WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT TODAY. THOSE
ARE MORE OF A PACKAGE OF
ADJUSTMENTS THAT AFFECT MULTIPL
FUNDS ACROSS MULTIPLE
DEPARTMENTS. SO, WE CAN MOVE O
TO SLIDE FIVE. SO, THIS TABLE
SUMMARIZES AT A HIGH LEVEL THE
CITY 2023 REVISED BUDGET.
STARTING FROM THE ADOPTED BUDGE
AND ACCOUNTING FOR ALL OF THE
CHANGES TO DATE. SO, $7.4
BILLION WITH AN AUTOMATIC
CARRYFORWARD FROM THE PRIOR
YEARS OF $1.9 BILLION. AND THE
BULK WHICH IS IN ONGOING
PROGRAMS AND THEN WE HAD FOUR
STANDALONE BILLS AND ONE
COMPREHENSIVE BILL AS OF APRIL
-- MOST OF THIS IS FROM THE
RECENT GRANT ACCEPTANCE AND
APPROPRIATION ORDINANCE. SO
THESE THREE PIECES TOGETHER MAK
UP THE REVISED BUDGET OF $9.3
MILLION, WHICH IS 25% HIGHER
THAN THE ADOPTED BUDGET. YOU CA
FIND ADDITIONAL DETAIL IN THE
MEMO AND THIS INFORMATION IS
SHOWN AT THE DEPARTMENT LEVEL I
ATTACHMENT ONE. SO, WITH THAT
MORE GENERAL BUDGET ADJUSTMENT
BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT, THE NEX
COUPLE OF SLIDES WILL FOCUS ON
THE BILLS THAT ARE BEFORE YOU
THIS MORNING. COUNCIL BILL
120573 REQUESTS APPROVAL FOR A
TOTAL 2023 BUDGET INCREASE OF
$154 MILLION FROM SEVERAL CITY
FUNDS AND ATTACHMENTS SUBMITTE
BY THE EXECUTIVE WITH THE
LEGISLATION SHOW THE DETAILS O
ALL OF THE ITEMS AND CENTRAL
STAFF HAS REVIEWED THAT LIST TO
MAKE SURE THEY MEET THE NATURE
OF CARRYFORARD, WHICH IS
ESSENTIALLY CONTINUING WORK THA
BEGAN IN 2022 AND IS ANTICIPATE
TO CONTINUE TO 2023. SO IT JUS
NEEDS THE RESOURCES TO DO SO.
WHAT I HAVE DONE IS HIGHLIGHT
SOME OF THE BIG-TICKET ITEMS AN
ITEMS THAT MAY BE OF INTEREST
TO COUNCIL. I CAN GO THROUGH
THESE OR SKIP OVER THESE, BUT
THEY ARE COVERED ON PAGE 7,
STARTING ON PAGE 5 OF THE MEMO.
ALL OF THEM ARE DETAILED THERE
AS WELL AS THE SUMMARY
ATTACHMENTS. WOULD YOU LIKE ME
TO SKIP OVER OR GO THROUGH EACH
OF THESE?
>> I THINK YOU CAN SKIP IT. TH
SUMMARY ON THE SLIDES IS GOOD
AND IF OTHERS HAVE QUESTIONS AT
THE END, WE CAN COME BACK TO
THOSE.
>> THANKS, CHAIR MOSQUEDA. I
WOULD NOTE TO A QUESTION ASKED
IN THE PREVIOUS PRESENTATION.
YOU CAN SEE ABOUT $76 MILLION
OF THE JUMPSTART CARRYFORWARD I
CAPTURED IN THE OFFICE OF
PLANNING, COMMUNITY
DEVELOPMENT. SO, JUST AS
FOLLOW-UP TO THAT QUESTION FROM
EARLIER.
>> THANK YOU.
>> SIMILARL THE SAME THING FOR
THE EXCEPTIONS. COUNCIL BILL
120572, WHICH IS THE 2022
EXCEPTIONS. A TOTAL REQUESTED
INCREASE OF $4.9 MILLION.
ACTUALLY THE LOWEST IN THE
RECENT FIVE-YEAR HISTORY AND
LONGER. THE AVERAGE IS UP $18
MILLION, SO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
THERE ARE TWO NOTABLE ITEMS.
THE OTHER IS IN SDOT FOR HIRING
BUDGET AND OVERHEAD LABOR COSTS
FOR THE PARKING ENFORCEMENT
OFFICERS AT SDOT. THIS IS A ONE
TIME EXCEPTION REQUEST AS
PARKING ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS
WERE TRANSFERRING BACK TO THE
SEATTLE POLICE DEPARTMENT IN TH
2023-24 BUDGET. NEXT SLIDE,
PLEASE. IN CLOSING I WOULD LIK
TO PROVIDE A REMINDER OF THE
UPCOMING LEGISLATION WHICH
INCLUDES THE SOON TO BE
SUBMITTED YEAR-END SUPPLEMENTAL
WE WILL ALSO HAVE A YEAR-END
PREPARATION AS WELL AS THE
YEAR-END SUPPLEMENTAL, WHICH
GETS TRANSMITTED WITH THE BUDGE
IN THE FALL. THIS IS IN
ADDITION TO ANY STANDALONE
BUDGET ADJUSTMENTS THAT OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. AND IN
CLOSING, IF THE COUNCIL VOTES T
MAKE A RECOMMENDATION ON THESE
COUNCIL BILLS TODAY, THEY WILL
BE CONSIDERED AT THE CITY
COUNCIL MEETING NEXT WEEK OR MA
20.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH. THANKS
FOR YOUR PATIENCE TODAY, TOO, A
WE GOT THROUGH TO
PRESENTATIONS. ANY ADDITIONAL
QUESTIONS FOR CENTRAL STAFF?
SEEING NONE, I AM GOING TO GO
AHEAD AND MOVE THESE ITEMS. I
MOVE THE COMMITTEE RECOMMENDS
PASSAGE OF COUNCIL BILL 120574.
IS THERE A SECOND? THANK YOU S
MUCH. IT HAS BEEN MOVED AND
SECONDED THAT THE EXCEPTIONS
BILL FOR 2022 WHICH REQUESTS
APPROVAL FOR THE 2022 BUDGET
INCREASE INTENDED TO RESOLVE
INSTANCES WHERE A DEPARTMENT
OVERSPENT IS INCLUDED IN THE
2022 REVISED BUDGET ALLOCATIONS
ARE THERE ANY COMMENTS? HEARIN
NONE, MADAM CLERK WILL YOU
PLEASE CALL THE ROLE AND NOTE
THAT COUNCILMEMBER LEWIS AND
COUNCILMEMBER NELSON ARE
EXCUSED.
>> YES.
>> EXCUSED.
>> AYE.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH. THE MOTIO
CARRIES AND THE RECOMMENDATION
THAT THE BILL PASS WILL BE SENT
TO THE MAY 23 FULL COUNCIL
MEETING FOR A FINAL VOTE. THERE
IS ANOTHER ITEM IN FRONT OF US
COUNCIL BILL 120573, WHICH IS
THE 2022 CARRYFORWARD BILL. I
MOVE THAT THE COMMITTEE
RECOMMEND THE PASSAGE OF
COUNCIL BILL 120573. IS THERE A
SECOND? IT HAS BEEN MOVED AND
SECONDED. IS THERE ADDITIONAL
COMMENTS? HEARING NONE, MADAM
CLERK WILL YOU PLEASE CALL THE
ROLL ON THE PASSAGE OF THE BILL
>> YES.
>> AYE. THANK YOU SO MUCH. THE
MOTION CARRIES AND THE COMMITTE
RECOMMENDATION THAT THE BILL
PASS WILL BE SENT TO THE MAY 23
SETTLE CANCEL MEETING FOR A
FINAL VOTE. THANKS AGAIN TO
CENTRAL STAFF FOR YOUR
PRESENTATIONS AND YOUR WORK
TODAY. IF THERE IS NOTHING ELSE
FOR THE GOOD OF THE ORDER, THE
NEXT MEETING WILL BE WHEN I AM
ONE YEAR OLDER ON JULY 5, THE
DAY AFTER MY BIRTHDAY. WE WILL
RECONVENE AT 9:30 IN THE
MORNING. UNTIL THEN PLEASE JOIN
US AT THE SELECT HOUSING MEETIN
WHICH WILL BE HELD IN TWO WEEKS
ON MAY 31 AT 9:30 IN THE
MORNING. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEFIN
AND DISCUSSION ON THE CHAIRS
PROPOSED INTRODUCTION OF THE
MARES HOUSING LEVY RENEWAL
LEGISLATION AND THEN WE WILL
HAVE A PUBLIC HEARING THAT
EVENING AT 4:30 P.M. I INVITE
MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC TO DIAL I
OR COME IN PERSON. THANKS,
COLLEAGUES FOR YOUR TIME TODAY.
YOUR GENEROUS TIME TODAY. WITH
THAT, OUR MEETING IS ADJOURNED.
THANK YOU ALL.