RIVERA ARE EXCUSED FOR THE TIME
BEING.
>> COUNCILMEMBER BOB KETTLE?
>> HERE .
>> COUNCILMEMBER ROB SAKA ?
COUNCILMEMBER DAN STRAUSS? THREE
PRESENT, TWO EXCUSED.
>> WE PLAN TO HEAR MORE ON THE
LEGISLATION WITH THE REVENUE
PROJECTIONS WHAT THEY ARE, THE
DECISION TO PUSH THAT TO A
FUTURE MEETING . ON TODAY'S
AGENDA, WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF
DISCUSSION ON THE 2025 ECONOMIC
FORECAST FOLLOWED BY BRIEFING IN
QUARTER ONE OF 2025 GRANT
ACCEPTANCE ORDINATES. BEFORE WE
BEGIN, IF THERE IS NO OBJECTION,
THE AGENDA WILL BE ADOPTED. THE
AGENDA IS ADOPTED. WE WILL HAVE
THESE TWO ITEMS. I AM NOT SEEING
ANYONE REGISTER IN PERSON OR
VIRTUALLY. STILL CHECKING ON THE
VIRTUAL. WE HAVE DAVID HAYNES
SIGNED UP SO IF DAVID HAYNES
BECOMES PRESENT AT THE TIME I
AND READING THE INSTRUCTIONS, WE
WILL TAKE HER COMMENTS.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL MOVE ON.
WITHIN THE PURVIEW OF THIS
COMMITTEE , EACH SPEAKER WILL
HAVE TWO MINUTES AND WE WILL
START WITH THE IN-PERSON
SPEAKERS FIRST. I WILL READ THE
PUBLIC COMMENT INSTRUCTIONS IN
PERSON. SPEAKERS WILL BE CALLED
IN THE ORDER IN WHICH THEY
REGISTERED. SPEAKERS WILL HEAR A
CHIME WHEN 10 SECONDS ARE LEFT.
THE PUBLIC COMMENT PERIOD IS NOW
OPEN. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN JOINED
BY COUNCILMEMBER RINK. DAVID
HAYNES, YOU HAVE TWO MINUTES.
DAVID CANNOT YOU ARE OFF MUTE,
TAKE IT AWAY.
>> IT SEEMS THIS PRESENTATION
BELONGS IN THE OTHER NEW
COMMITTEE THAT WAS TO TRY TO
BLAME TRUMP FOR EVERYTHING TO
DISTRACT FROM THE FACT THAT
DEMOCRATS IN SOCIETY HAVE MADE
IT UNSAFE TO GO DOWNTOWN. EVER
NOTICE HOW SEATTLE BLAMES WHITE
PEOPLE AND TRUMP TRYING TO
DISTRACT FROM THE FACT THAT THE
ONLY REASON WE HAVE A SERIOUS
PROBLEM IN EVERY ECONOMY IS THAT
DEMOCRATS SHIFTED DRUG PICTURES
FROM JAIL AND PRIORITIZED HIRING
PEOPLE TO RUN INTERFERENCE FOR
REPEAT OFFENDERS USING HOMELESS
MONEY LEAVING INNOCENT HOMELESS
TO BE MISTREATED AND ABUSED
WHILE THE BUDGET REFLECTS THE
TREASONOUS POLICIES OF
PROGRESSIVES WHO ARE TO BLAME
FOR OUR LAME ECONOMY. MAYBE THE
FARMERS WHO CANNOT SELL THEIR
GOD BLESSED FOODS IN CHINA AND
INDIA CAN FINALLY STOP BEING THE
CANE OF CAIN AND ABEL AGREED AND
ACTUALLY BRING THAT FARM FOOD TO
THE STORES AND TO THE SCHOOLS SO
THAT WE CAN GET SOME HEALTHY
FOOD INSTEAD OF ALLOWING PEOPLE
TO DIE OF STARVATION WITH A
BELLY FULL OF JUNK FOOD .
INSTEAD OF HAVING FARMERS TRYING
TO GET RICH, GIVING THEM THE
HEALTHY CHERRIES AND APPLES,
CHILDREN GET ACCESS TO IT AT
SCHOOL. ALL BECAUSE SEATTLE WAS
TO BE AN INTERNATIONAL CITY
WHILE THEY CONTINUE TO IMPLODE A
BAD POLICY AND UNTRUSTWORTHY
LEADERS WHO WANT TO JUDGE SKIN
COLOR AND NOT THE CONTENT OF THE
CHARACTER. WE REALLY NEED TO
PURGE THE EVIL IN OUR SOCIETY
AND MAKE THE POLICE TO START
ANSWERING QUESTIONS WHILE THESE
JUNKIE THIEVES WHO MAKE IT
IMPOSSIBLE TO ENJOY YOURSELF
WHILE GOING OUT EVER AGAIN ASK 4
WHO CANNOT EVEN LET YOUR GUARD
DOWN . YOU CANNOT EVEN WALK ON
THE SIDEWALK TO AVOID THE EVIL
THAT OUR POLICE CHIEF IS
REFUSING TO COMBAT.
>> THANK YOU. THAT IS THE END OF
PUBLIC COMMENT PERIOD FOR TODAY
SEEING AS WE HAVE NO ADDITIONAL
SPEAKERS PHYSICALLY PRESENT, WE
WILL CLOSE THE PUBLIC COMMENT
PERIOD. WE WILL MOVE ON TO ITEM
1 AND VICE CHAIR RIVERA AND
COUNCILMEMBER CATHY MOORE WERE
PRESENT, AS WELL . MOVING ON,
WILL THE COURT PLEASE READ THE
SHORT TUNNEL . EXPECT THE APRIL
2012 ECONOMIC AND REVENUE
FORECAST FOR BRIEFING DISCUSSION
AND POSSIBLE VOTE CENTERS
INCLUDE AND SIOBHAN THOMPSON
FROM THE OFFICE OF ECONOMIC AND
REVENUE FORECAST. AND FROM THE
CITY BUDGET OFFICE AND BED NO
FROM THE CENTRAL STAFF.
>> THANK YOU . IT IS GREAT TO
SEE EVERYONE, AGAIN. I KNOW THAT
WE MET JUST THIS LAST WEEKEND
HERE WE ARE SEVEN DAYS LATER
TALKING ABOUT THIS, WE DO HAVE
AN HOUR FOR THIS AGENDA ITEM.
COLLEAGUES WILL START WITH AND
UNDER INTERRUPTED PRESENTATION
AND WE ARE GIVING THEM ABOUT 20
MINUTES SO WE WILL SPEND 20
MINUTES ON THE ECONOMIC SCENARIO
. THE 2022 REVENUE AND WE WILL
COME BACK AND GO THROUGH
SIDE-BY-SIDE. I WANT TO MAKE
SURE EVERYONE GETS THE FULL
INFORMATION OUT THERE AND THEN
WE WILL COME BACK TO THE
BEGINNING. OVERALL, THIS IS NOT
THE NEWS WE WANTED TO AND THIS
COULD BE WORSE . THIS IS THE
FIRST TIME IN MY MEMORY WHEN THE
LAST TIME WE TOOK UP A
PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK WAS. I THINK
WE MADE A PRUDENT DECISION LAST
WEEK AND JUST UNDERSTANDING THAT
THE DECISION COULD BE WORSE AND
THERE WILL BE TWO REVENUE
FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND THE
BUDGET. THERE WILL BE AN AUGUST
FORECAST AND IN OCTOBER
FORECAST. SO I WANT TO ADDRESS
SOME OF THE TECHNICAL ISSUES WE
WERE HAVING AT THE FORECAST
COUNSEL . COLLEAGUES, THE
FORECAST COUNSEL IS AN
INDEPENDENT BODY THAT HAS TWO
ELECTED MEMBERS FROM CITY
COUNSEL AND CBO AND THE MAYOR'S
OFFICE SO WE HAVE CHIEF OF
STAFF, JEREMY ROCCA AND JAMIE
CARNELL AS THE REPRESENTATIVES
AS WELL AS MYSELF AND THE
PRESIDENT . SO IT IS AN
INDEPENDENT OFFICE INDEPENDENT
FORECAST. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE
NEWS WE WANTED, I HAVE ALWAYS
FOUND THE FORECAST OUT OF THIS
OFFICE TO BE VERY ACCURATE .
DOES EVERYONE WANT TO INTRODUCE
THEMSELVES FOR THE RECORD?
>> THANK YOU, JARED STROUD.
ONIONS -- I AM THE INTERIM
DIRECTOR.
>> THIS IS SEAN THOMPSON,
ORIGINAL ECONOMIST WITH ROS .
>> AND DAVE HANIS WITH THE
CITY'S BUDGET OFFICE.
>> GOOD MORNING, THE CITY BUDGET
OFFICE.
>> JOE RUSSELL,
>> CENTRAL STAFF DIRECTOR.
[ LOW AUDIO VOLUME ]
>> THE PRESENTATION OF TODAY'S
FORECAST COUNSEL HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO INCLUDE SOME RELEVANT
INFORMATION THAT BECAME
AVAILABLE . THE BRIEF OUTLINE IS
IN THE FIRST PART, WE WILL TALK
ABOUT ECONOMY DEVELOPMENTS AND
WHAT THEY IMPLY AND WHAT THEY
MEAN FOR THE ECONOMY FORECAST.
THE ECONOMY FORECAST IS ONE OF
THE MAJOR INPUTS FOR THE REVENUE
FORECAST . THE SECOND MAJOR
INPUTS ON THE 2024 ACTUALS SO
THAT IS WHAT WE WILL TREND NEXT
TO AND AFTER THOSE 24 ACTUALS,
WE WILL MOVE ON TO THE 25 -26
APRIL-REVENUE FORECAST UPDATE.
SO, THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF NEWS
AROUND -- AND THAT IS A BIG PART
OF WHAT IS DRIVING THE FORECAST
TO DIRECT AND INDIRECT
IMPLICATIONS OF THOSE TARIFF
PROPOSALS ARE REALLY, REALLY
MASSIVE. THE CHART ON THE RIGHT
SHOWS WHAT THE ECONOMY CALLS AN
EFFECTIVE ESSENTIALLY STICKING
ALL DIVIDED THEM BY THE IMPORTS
TO GET ESSENTIALLY EFFECTIVE .
THE CHART SHOWS THE HISTORY AND
READ AND THE ASSUMPTIONS FROM
APRIL IN THE PURPLE LINE. AND
THE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS SINCE
APRIL 2nd IN THOSE HIGHER LINES
SO THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF
DEVELOPMENT IN A VERY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME TO FOLLOW THE
APRIL 2nd ANNOUNCEMENTS OF
TARIFFS MUCH LARGER THAN WHAT
WAS ANTICIPATED IN MARCH AND
THERE WERE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENTS. THERE HAS BEEN A
PAUSE, A 90 DAY PAUSE ON MOST OF
THE TARIFFS EXCEPT FOR CHINA .
THE TARIFF RATE HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 145% SO THOSE TOP
TWO LINES SHOW WHAT THE CHURCH
AFRAID WOULD BE IF THE 100%
TARIFF RATE STAYS IN PLACE AND
THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS .
EVERYTHING ELSE REVERTS TO 10%
AND AFTER THE 90 DAY PAUSE,
THOSE TARIFFS ARE REALLY
IMPOSED, THE TURF RATE WOULD
CLIMB TO MORE THAN 30%. REALLY A
BIG JUMP FROM 3% , THE TARIFF
IMPULSE OF LAST YEAR. SO THIS
PRESENTATION, I WILL BE
REFERRING BACK TO THE MARCH
ASSUMPTIONS AND SMP GLOBAL
FORECAST FOR THE ECONOMY. THAT
WAS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
REGIONAL ECONOMY FORECAST AND
FOR THE REVENUE FORECAST AND WE
ARE PREPARING THE REVENUE
FORECAST THROUGH APRIL U.S.
FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE, YET.
IT IS GOING TO BE INCLUDED IN
THIS LATER. SO ALL OF THE
TARIFFS, ALL OF THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENTS HAVE INCREASED THE
UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE POLICY,
THE CHART ON THE TOP IS AN
INDICATOR TO ASSESS THE OVERALL
AMOUNT OF POLICY UNCERTAINTY. AS
YOU CAN SEE, IT HAS SPIKED QUITE
CONSIDERABLY SINCE APRIL 2nd AND
EVEN BEFORE THAT, THERE HAS BEEN
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT THERE
WILL EVENTUALLY BE THE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON PART IS WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN 2020 AND EARLY
PANDEMIC DAYS. IN THE
UNCERTAINTY HAS LED TO QUITE A
LOT OF FLUIDITY AND FINANCIAL
MARKETS. THE CHART AT THE BOTTOM
IS A SINGLE MEASURE OF HOW THE
ECONOMIES MEASURE HOW MUCH
VOLATILITY THERE IS, THE
TECHNICAL DEFINITION, IT
DOESN'T REALLY MATTER WHAT IS
RELEVANT. WHAT IS IMPORTANT IS
THAT THE SPIKE , ALL THE WAY AT
THE END IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN 2020 OR IN THE
GREAT DEPRESSION IN 2008 AND
2009 GREAT RECESSION. SO, A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND ALL OF THAT
UNCERTAINTY HAS LED TO THE
ECONOMY FORECAST AND HAS LED TO
INCREASED FEARS REGARDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A RECESSION. IT
SEEMS WE HAVE PRESENTED THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORECAST
COUNSEL LAST WEEK. THE WALL
STREET JOURNAL HAS RELEASED
THEIR SURVEY ABRUPTLY 60
ECONOMIES. THEY HAVE CONDUCTED
EVERY QUARTER, ONE OF THE THINGS
THEY ASK IS THERE ASSESSMENT FOR
THE PROBABILITY OF A RECESSION
IN THE RECENT SURVEY THAT WAS
CONDUCTED AFTER THE APRIL 2nd
ANNOUNCEMENT , ON AVERAGE, THOSE
ECONOMIES HAVE PUT PROBABLY
EVERY SESSION AT 45%, A
RECESSION AMONG THOSE ECONOMIES
. THE RANGE IS QUITE LARGE BUT A
REASONABLE RANGE WITHIN THOSE
ECONOMIES WOULD BE FROM 40% TO
60%. SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATED
COMPARED TO WHERE THE
PROBABILITY WAS JUST A COUPLE OF
WEEKS AGO. ONE FINAL CHART, HERE
, ON THE AMOUNT OF TURMOIL THAT
WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST TWO
WEEKS. THE FINANCIAL MARKETS
AFTER THE ANNOUNCEMENT ENDED
QUITE NEGATIVELY. THE S&P 500
INDEX HAS DROPPED CONSIDERABLY.
IT HAS RECOVERED PARTIALLY IN
THAT IT SHOWS WHERE IT WAS AT
THE CLOSE OF THE DAY ON APRIL
11th , ROUGHLY THE SAME SPOT,
RIGHT NOW. SO IT IS STABILIZED
BUT WHAT WE EXPECT IS THE
UNCERTAINTY TO LINGER ON AND THE
UNCERTAINTY BY CONSUMERS WHO
MIGHT BE WORRIED ABOUT THE
FUTURE, AND LOWER BUSINESS
SENTIMENT WOULD LEAD TO LESS
INVESTMENT, LESS HIRING. IT IS
HARD TO MAKE LONG-TERM PLANS
SINCE THERE IS AN INCREDIBLE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT
THE POLICY WILL LOOK LIKE YEARS
FROM NOW. TURNING TO THE ECONOMY
FORECAST FOR THE USA AND THE
REGIONAL ECONOMIC FORECAST , WE
HAVE PROPOSED -- WE HAVE
RECOMMENDED TO ADOPT THE BEST
OUTLOOK FOR MARCH HAS THE
OFFICIAL APRIL FORECAST . THE
RECOMMENDATION HAS BEEN APPROVED
BY THE FORECAST COUNSEL SO THE
REVENUE FORECAST THAT I WILL GET
TO IT EVENTUALLY IS BASED ON THE
PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK, BASED ON
THE PESSIMISTIC ECONOMIC
FORECAST BY SMP GLOBAL FROM
MID-MARCH. MIDDLE OF MARCH, THEY
ASSIGNED A 50% PROBABILITY TO
THE BASELINE AND ONLY 25% TO THE
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO, THOSE
DEVELOPMENTS HAVE BEEN RELEASED
AND HAVE LED US TO RECOMMEND THE
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO EVEN THOUGH
IT HAS BEEN ASSIGNED A LOWER
PROBABILITY BUT WE BELIEVED IT
TO BE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME.
THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAVE RISK
AMENDED THE PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO
WAS IN 2020, EARLY PANDEMIC
DAYS. AGAIN, THERE WAS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY GOING ON THE UPDATE
THAT WE HAVE PROVIDED BASED ON
AN ECONOMIC FORECAST THAT WAS A
LITTLE BIT STALE AND THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENTS , BACK THEN , IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE
SEATTLE ECONOMY WAS BELIEVED TO
BE MORE STRONGLY AFFECTED BY THE
PANDEMIC THAT IS TO RECOMMEND TO
THE PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO SO WE
ARE IN A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION.
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL HAVE
WASHINGTON STATE AND SEATTLE
ECONOMIES AFFECTED QUITE A LOT
BY THE TARIFFS, BY THE DROP IN
TOURISM , THE HIGH INTEREST
RATES LEADING TO FURTHER
DOWNTURN FOR THE SLOWDOWN IN THE
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR SO THAT WAS
THE RATIONALE FOR CHOOSING MARCH
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO AS A
STARTING POINT FOR THE REVENUE
FORECAST. THE CHART HERE
COMPARED TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THE
U.S. GOING BACK TO WHEN THE 25
ADOPTED FORECAST WAS APPROVED
LAST YEAR. BACK THEN, THE
ECONOMY WAS VERY SOLID FOOTING.
IT WAS ROUGHLY 2% OVER THE NEXT
TWO YEARS. EMPLOYMENT WAS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN BUT THE
ECONOMISTS DID NOT EXPECT ANY
RECESSION BY ANY MEANS. THE
MARCH PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO STILL
DOES NOT ASSUME ANY RECESSION.
IT IS JUST WHAT THE ECONOMY IS
REFERRED TO AS SO GDP IS NOT
DECLINING. THERE ARE SOME JOB
LOSSES BUT, OVERALL, THE ECONOMY
KEEPS GROWING AT A VERY SLOW
PACE. THAT PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO
THAT WE HAVE RECOMMENDED FROM
MARCH LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
APRIL BASELINE FORECAST BY SMP
GLOBAL . THAT YELLOW LINE SHOWS
THE ASSUMPTION OR THE
PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE ECONOMIC
GROWTH OR GROSS ON THE PANEL AND
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ON THE RIGHT
SIDE. THAT FORECAST HAS BEEN
RELEASED LAST FRIDAY SO AFTER
THE FORECAST COUNSEL MEETING,
THE GLOBAL RELEASE THEIR LATEST
UPDATES. BUT WE JUST DON'T HAVE
ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD IT ALL IN.
AGAIN, THE RECOMMENDATION THAT
WE MADE TO ADOPT A PESSIMISTIC
SCENARIO WAS BASED ON OUR BELIEF
THAT WHEN THE APRIL FORECAST
EVENTUALLY COMES OUT, IT WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR . THE BASELINE
SCENARIO WILL LOOK VERY SUMMERY
-- SIMILAR. THAT IS CERTAINLY
THE CASE FOR 2025 IF YOU COMPARE
THE RED AND THE YELLOW LINES .
THE OUTLOOK FOR 26 IS SLIGHTLY
BETTER IN THE APRIL BASELINE
SCENARIO BUT WHEN WE TRY TO WHAT
CAN POTENTIALLY HAPPEN, THE MORE
NEGATIVE OUTLOOK , THE
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO FROM APRIL
IS MUCH WORSE AND NOW FEATURES
THE SELECTION. BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIES
ARE A MUCH LARGER PROBABILITY OF
AN ACTUAL DOWNTURN WHERE GDP
WILL DECLINE. THERE WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT JOB LOSSES AND IN
THIS APRIL FORECAST UPDATE, THE
SMP GLOBAL HAS PUT A HIGHER
CHANCE , A 35% PROBABILITY ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO. THAT WILL
BE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT THE
ECONOMICS BELIEVE GOING FORWARD.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT ALL THAT IMPLIES
FOR THE MONETARY POLICY, HOW THE
FED WILL REACT WILL DEPEND ON
THE RACE TO THE INFLATION.
CERTAINLY, THE -- WILL INCREASE
THE INFLATION RATE AT LEAST IN
THE NEAR TERM. THE RED LINE IN
THE LEFT PANEL IS SHOWING THE
IMPACT ON INFLATION AND IN
PARTICULAR, AN INCREASE IN THE
FIRST HALF OF 2025 . THE APRIL
BASELINE SCENARIO , AGAIN, VERY
SIMILAR TO MARCH PESSIMISTIC
SCENARIO , WHAT WE WERE KIND OF
EXPECTING TO SEE, THE APRIL 25
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO , NOT THAT
MUCH DIFFERENT. GIVEN THE
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO EVEN IN THE
RECESSION, THIS CURRENT GLOBAL
FORECAST DOES NOT SEE A BIG
IMPACT OR A MUCH BIGGER IMPACT
ON TARIFFS ON INFLATION. THERE
IS CERTAIN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW
THE FEDS INTEREST-RATE WILL MOVE
GOING FORWARD . THAT WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
ECONOMY AS A WHOLE. TURNING TO
THE SEATTLE AREA , FIRST, A LOOK
BACK AT 2024. THE CHARGE
COMPARES THE ACTUALS FOR 2024
AND OUR FORECAST FROM LAST
OCTOBER AND OCTOBER 23 WHICH
SERVED AS A STARTING POINT FOR
THE ADOPTING BUDGET FOR 2024.
THE FORECAST FOR EMPLOYMENT WAS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT THE
ACTUAL CROWS WAS. 8%
YEAR-OVER-YEAR IN 2024 COMPARED
TO OUR FORECAST OF 4.7 .
INFLATION GAINED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
OF 4.7 VERSUS 3.6. FOR THOSE TWO
INDICATORS, OUR FORECAST WAS
QUITE ACCURATE. LESS ACCURATE
FOR TAXABLE SALES. WE HAD
EXPECTED A DECLINE IN TAXABLE
SALES IN SALES TAX REVENUE. IN
OCTOBER OF 2024, IT CAME IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUT WAS
ESSENTIALLY FLAT YEAR-OVER-YEAR
IN THE 0.1% INCREASE. BEFORE
THAT, SOME OF THE ADDITIONAL
THINGS THAT FEED INTO THE
FORECAST, THE EMPLOYMENT PROSE
IS ONE OF THE RELEVANT
INDICATORS THAT WE LOOK AT
OVERALL. THE REGIONAL ECONOMY
HAS GROWN SLOWER THAN THE
NATIONAL ONE. THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN THE
NUMBER OF JOBS IN THE
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR AND A
SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN THE
INFORMATION SECTOR AND THOSE TWO
WERE WEIGHING DOWN ON WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN HEALTH EDUCATION
AND GOVERNMENT SECTORS. WHAT
ELSE? WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR
THE FORECAST? GOING FORWARD, WE
EXPECT THE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TO
BE SLOW IN 2025 , THAT DARK RED
LINE IS THE MARCH PESSIMISTIC
SCENARIO THAT GAINS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. JUST FOR COMPARISON, A
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER RED LINE SHOWS
THE MARCH BASELINE SCENARIO.
EVEN THERE, WE WERE EXPECTING
VERY MODERATE, VERY MODEST
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH. WE WERE
EXPECTING INFLATION TO PICK UP
IN 2025 AND GRADUALLY COME DOWN
SIMILAR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE INFLATION ON THE NATIONAL
LEVEL. FOR THE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
, THERE IS ACTUALLY A DECLINE
FOR 2025 AGAIN AS THE IMPACT OF
TARIFFS, THE HIGHER INTEREST
RATES LEAD TO LESS INVESTMENT,
LESS EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, THAT
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO APPLIES
SOME JOB LOSSES BUT NOT THE KIND
THAT WE WOULD SEE IF THIS TURNS
OUT TO BE A RECESSION AND IT IS
THAT APRIL PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO
BECOMES THE ONE THAT THE ECONOMY
IS ACTUALLY HEADING DOWN SO
THINGS CAN BE POTENTIALLY QUITE
WORSE THAN WHAT THIS FORECAST IS
PRESENTING. WE WILL COME WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE IN AUGUST.
TURNING TO 2024, ACTUALS, THE
ACTUAL REVENUES FOR THE GENERAL
FUND WHEN WE EXCLUDE GRANTS AND
TRANSFERS, THE ACTUALS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OUR OCTOBER
FORECAST, 7.3 MILLION OR 0.5%
AND THAT IS VERY BOTTOM-LINE. IN
THE STABLE, THOSE GROVES WHICH
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN BLUE ARE THE
REVENUES OF THE OFFICE OF
ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SALES TAX
AND OCCUPATIONAL TAX TO LARGE
ECONOMIC DRIVEN REVENUES CAME
VERY CLOSE TO OUR FORECAST. THE
COMBINED VARIANTS FOR THE
FORECAST ABOUT 1.6 MILLION SO
ONE QUARTER OF A PERCENT OF
VARIANTS ONLY. SALES TAX CAME IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
DUE TO TO SOME REVENUES,
BUSINESS OCCUPATION TAX SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED, NOT MUCH OF A
DIFFERENCE COMBINED. FOR PRIVATE
TAXES, SEAN CAN PROVIDE SOME
INFORMATION ON THAT.
>> FOR NATURAL GAS ALONG WITH
TELEPHONE, FOR NATURAL GAS,
THERE WAS A PRICE INCREASE. IT
WAS IMPROPERLY ACCOUNTED FOR AND
NOW IT IS. WITHOUT THE TAX WAS
INITIALLY WEAKER BUT IT TURNS
OUT THE PAYMENTS ARE NOT THERE.
THEY COME IN LATER AND MUCH
LARGER. SO THIS IS CURRENTLY A
NEW PHENOMENON . AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE A SMALL VARIANTS IN
FORECAST BUT ULTIMATELY A PRETTY
STEADY REVENUE.
>> FOR THOSE NOT HIGHLIGHTED
BLUE, THE BUDGET IS OVERSEEN AND
THEY CAN PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION .
>> STARTING AT THE TOP, THE
PROPERTY TAX INCLUDES A MEDICAL
ONE. DOWN ABOUT 3.9 MILLION,
ABOUT 2 MILLION OF THAT IS DUE
TO THE MEDICAL ONE LEVY. THE
CITY OF SEATTLE RECEIVES THE
RIGHT TIME THE CITY OF
SEATTLE'S BUT THE RATE IS SET
ON KING COUNTY AVE'S AND KING
COUNTY A B'S INCREASES FASTER
THAN THE CITIES AV INCREASES.
YOU GET A DROP IN THE RATE. SO
THE RELATIVE LEVELS DETERMINED
WHETHER WE SEE AN INCREASE
RELATIVE TO OUR FORECAST. THAT
IS WHAT HAPPENED HERE. AND THE
NEXT --
>> FOR PUBLIC UTILITIES, THE
VARIANT IS PRETTY SMALL. IT CAME
IN A LITTLE HIGHER, ABOUT 2
MILLION. I THINK THAT SPREAD
ACROSS ALL FOUR OF THE STREAMS
WHICH IS AN ELECTRIC , TAX AND
SEWAGE, WATER . AS FOR OTHER
CITY TAXES, THERE IS A HIGH
VARIANTS. MOSTLY TO THE FACT
THAT IT IS A SMALL REVENUE
STREAM BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL OF
THIS VARIANTS CAN BE TIED TO THE
EXCISE TAX AND SIMPLY THAT WE
SLIGHTLY CHANGE THE ACCRUAL
METHOD, THIS YEAR , MEANING THAT
THERE ARE MORE REVENUES THAT
CAME IN IN EARLY 2025 THAT WERE
A FACT OF 2024 AND TIED TO 2024
OBLIGATION. SO WE SAW A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER REVENUES THAN EXPECT IT,
THERE.
>> I DON'T KNOW IF THERE ARE
OTHERS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST.
WE WANTED TO EXPLAIN GRANTS.
>> THE VERY LARGE EXPECTATION IN
GRAND REVENUE FOR 2024 , MOST OF
THAT IS GRANT CARRYFORWARDS. SO
WHEN GRANTS ARE ACCEPTED IN THE
FIRST YEAR, THEY ARE FULLY
APPROPRIATED BUT A LOT OF GRANTS
ARE NOT SPENT DOWN ENTIRELY IN
THE FIRST YEAR, THEY ARE SPENT
ACROSS MULTIPLE YEARS. AND SO,
WE ASSUME A COMMENSURATE AMOUNT
OF REVENUE IN ORDER TO BALANCE
THOSE APPROPRIATIONS. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THAT, THE UNDER COLLECTION
OF REVENUE OF 45 MILLION IS
MOSTLY BECAUSE SPENDING HAS NOT
OCCURRED YET ON A LOT OF THOSE
GRANTS SO REVENUE ALSO HAS NOT
BEEN COLLECTED. SO IT IS JUST A
MATTER OF WHEN WE WILL COLLECT
THESE REVENUES INSTEAD OF IF. IT
IS A TIMING ISSUE AND YOU WILL
SEE A LARGE POSITIVE NUMBER
REFLECTED IN 2025 CAPTURING THE
CARRYFORWARD FROM LAST YEAR TO
THIS YEAR, AS WELL.
>> THANKS . TURNING TO
NON-GENERAL FUND REVENUES, THEY
WILL HEAR SELECT OTHER REVENUES
. THOSE ROWS HIGHLIGHTED IN BLUE
ARE THE OFFICE OF ECONOMIC
REVENUE FORECAST IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR. THE VERY TOP ONE IS THE ONE
WHERE THE VARIANTS FROM THE
FORECAST IS THE LARGEST. THAT
WAS ABOUT 46 MILLION LAST
COLLECTED IN 2024 THAN WE WERE
EXPECTING LAST YEAR. WE HAVE
LOOKED INTO THE REASONS FOR THIS
VARIANTS AND WE HAVE BUILT WHAT
WE HAVE LEARNED INTO THE
FORECAST FOR 2025 AND 2026 AND
WE CAN CERTAINLY GO MORE INTO
THE DETAILS. FOR THE OTHER ONES,
THE EXCISE TAX CAME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AND THE MISSIONS TAX
SLIGHTLY LOWER. IN LINE, WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN GENERAL. THE REASON
WHY WE ARE LOOKING AT 2024 AND
SPENDING MORE TIME LOOKING BACK
AT WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR IS
THAT , AT THIS POINT IN THE
YEAR, THERE IS VERY LITTLE
REVENUE COLLECTED. FOR THE 2025
REVENUE COLLECTION, WE HAVE ONLY
RECEIVED ONE MONTH WORTH OF
SALES TAX REVENUE AND ONE MONTH
-- SO THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY
DRIVEN BY THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
AND THE 2024 ACTUALS. TURNING TO
THE REVENUE FORECAST, AS I HAVE
MENTIONED BEFORE, WE HAVE
RECOMMENDED AND THE FORECAST
COUNSEL HAS ADOPTED THE BEST
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AND THE
REVENUE FOR GENERAL FUND OVERALL
DOES NOT DECLINE YEAR-OVER-YEAR
IN 25 OR 2026 IF YOU LOOK AT THE
VERY BOTTOM ROW THAT SUMMARIZES
TOTAL REVENUE EXCLUDING GRANTS
AND TRANSFER REVENUE, IT IS
GROWING MODESTLY ABOUT 1% IN 25,
2% IN 26 BUT VERY MODEST GROWTH
AND WHAT IS MORE RELEVANT IS
THAT THESE REVENUE PROJECTIONS
HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWN FROM
WHATEVER FORECAST WAS BACK IN
OCTOBER. SO THE NEXT TWO COLUMNS
SUMMARIZE THOSE DIFFERENCES IN
2025 AND 2026 REVENUES IN THE
LAST COLUMN SHOWS THE OVERALL
CHANGE , 25+26 DOWNWARD AND IN
TOTAL IS ABOUT 50 MILLION LESS
REVENUE FOR THESE AND NEXT YEAR
FOR GENERAL FUND AS A WHOLE. THE
REASONS ARE, LOWER ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK DRIVING MAIN ECONOMIC
REVENUES WHICH ARE DEPENDENT ON
THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, SALES
TAX HAS BEEN REVISED BY 9.3
MILLION. BUSINESS AND OCCUPATION
TAX , ABOUT 20 OUT OF THE $50
MILLION DOWNWARD TRADITION. FOR
PRIVATE TEXT, THIS CAN PROVIDE
MORE INFORMATION.
>> FOR NATURAL GAS AND TELEPHONE
TAXES, FROM PREVIOUS ADOPTED ,
OVER 6 MILLION. AND A TWO YEAR
DIFFERENCE. THE REST OF THE
PRIVATE UTILITY TAXES CONTINUE
TO BE ACCURATE. AS A RESULT,
THEY WERE NOT UPDATED ON NEW
INFORMATION THAT WE HAVE AND
OVERALL PRIVATE UTILITY TAXES
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE WORRIED
ABOUT STATE.
>> FOR THE REVENUES THAT THE
BUDGET IS OVERSEEN, THE LARGEST
DIFFERENCE IS IN GRANTS. DAVE
AND HIS TEAM CAN PROVIDE
INFORMATION ON THOSE .
>> THERE'S A LOT OF RED ON THE
CHART. THE ESSENTIAL THING IS
THE REVENUE STREAMS ARE
DECLINING FOR THIS FORECAST. IN
PARTICULAR, FOR PROPERTY TAX,
THIS IS ALMOST ENTIRELY DUE TO
THE MEDICAL ONE LEVY . THE
RENEWAL THIS FALL, THE RATE
PROPOSED IS $.25. AV HAS BEEN
DECLINING WITH A CHANGE IN
FORECAST. AND SO THE AMOUNT,
$.25 TIMES THE LOWER YIELDS .
ALEX, WOULD YOU LIKE TO SAY MORE
ABOUT PUBLIC UTILITIES?
>> FOR PUBLIC UTILITIES, THIS IS
ALIGNING WITH THE WORSENING
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND ASSUMING
LESS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REVENUE
STREAM. JOE?
>> I CAN SPEAK TO PARKING
METERS. WE HAVE REVISED THAT
FORECAST DOWNWARD BASED ON
FACTORS , IT FELL APPROXIMATELY
11 PERCENT LAST YEAR AND
CONTINUES WITH A DOWNWARD TREND.
WE HAVE ALSO SEEN A COMPOUNDING
EFFECT OF THE RATE CHANGES HAVE
MODERATED. THEY USED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES AND NOW
ARE SORT OF A MIX EITHER NEUTRAL
AND THE ONE THAT TOOK EFFECT IN
MARCH WAS NEGATIVE. THAT IS THE
FIRST TIME WE HAVE SEEN THAT
SINCE THE PANDEMIC. SO THIS IS
KIND OF REFLECTING BOTH OF
THOSE. THOSE ARE THE DRIVING
FORCES THAT IS PRINCIPALLY
DRIVEN . COMING OUT OF THE
PANDEMIC, WE ARE SEEING QUITE A
SIGNIFICANT DOWNTREND. THOSE
PEAK IN 2023 AND IN 2024,
DECLINED SO WE ARE CONTINUING TO
SEE THAT IN 2025. SO THAT IS
WHAT IS BEING REFLECTED, THIS
REVISION.
>> LICENSES, PERMITS PRIMARILY
DUE TO INTEREST INCOME , WE ARE
ASSUMING FURTHER DROP IN THE
CASH POOL BALANCES THAT ARE
ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE GENERAL
FUND. INTEREST RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROUGHLY WHERE
THEY ARE, 3.6% BUT WE WILL HAVE
LESS CASH TO EARN INTEREST ON. I
THINK THE NEXT ONE WITH SERVICE
CHARGES AND REIMBURSEMENT.
>> THIS REDUCTION IN SERVICE
CHARGES IS NOT TIED TO THE
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. IT CAPTURES A
NOTABLE REDUCTION IN THE
INTERNAL SERVICE RATES CHARGED
BY FDH ARE WHICH WAS IMPLEMENTED
LAST YEAR BUT WAS NOT CAPTURED
IN THE FORECAST. IT IS BEING
REFLECTED HERE AND THOSE OTHER
RIGHTS THAT IS DHR CHARGES. AND
THAT WAS REVISED DOWN. AND GOING
INTO GRANTS, THIS TIES DIRECTLY
INTO WHAT I TALKED ABOUT ON THE
2024 ACTUALS SLIDE. THESE
APPROPRIATIONS ARE , A LOT OF
THIS COMPRISES GRANTS THAT HAVE
NOT YET BEEN SENT DOWN SO THIS
APPROPRIATION HAS BEEN CARRIED
FORWARD FROM 2024 AND, AGAIN, WE
ARE ASSUMING A ONE-TO-ONE
RELATIONSHIP WITH APPROPRIATION
REVENUE AND THIS HAS TO DO
REALLY WITH THE MECHANICS OF HOW
WE HANDLE GRANTS AND DEAL WITH
THEM IN THE BUDGET VERSUS
ANYTHING TO DO WITH REVENUE
EXPECTATIONS .
>> TURNING TO THE NON-GENERAL
FUND REVENUES , THE TABLE SHOWS
SELECT OTHER REVENUES , THE
BARREL EXPENSE TAX HAS BEEN
REVISED DOWN THE MOST SIX TO
SIGNIFICANTLY. IT HAS BEEN
REVISED DOWN FOR ABOUT $81
MILLION FOR 2025 AND THE
COMBINED REVISION IS ABOUT 167
MILLION. THE MAIN REASON HERE
AND THERE ARE TWO OF THEM, THE
FIRST ONE IS THE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED REVENUE COLLECTION FOR
2024. THAT MEANS WE ARE GOING
INTO THIS YEAR AND THE NEXT ONE
STARTING FROM A LOWER POINT AND
THE SECOND FACTOR , THE
FINANCIAL MARKET AND THE FACT
THAT THE STOCK PRICES AND THE
MAIN TECH COMPANIES HAVE
DECLINED AND THEY ARE ONE OF THE
IMPORTANT FACTORS BECAUSE OF THE
LARGE COMPENSATION THAT IS MADE
HIDDEN IN THE FORM OF STOCK
TRENDS. FOR THREE OF THE
REVISION IS THE RESULT OF HIGHER
INTEREST RATES IN THE
PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO SUBMISSION
TAX HAS BEEN REVISED DOWN AS A
RESULT . THE SLOWER STOCK PRICES
WILL ESSENTIALLY MEAN THAT
PEOPLE WILL BE LESS INCLINED TO
TRAVEL, TO SPEND MONEY . THEY
WILL CUT ON THEIR DISCRETIONARY
SPENDING AND THE REVENUE WILL
SUFFER FROM THOSE EFFECTS. THE
LAST BLUE LINE, THE
TRANSPORTATION -RELATED SALES
TAX REVENUE , THE REASON HERE IS
THE SAME AS FOR THE REGULAR AND
OPTIONAL SALES TAX DUE TO LESS
ECONOMY ACTIVITY, A WEAKER
OUTLOOK FOR THE CONSTRUCTION
SECTOR . THE OTHER REVENUES NOT
HIGHLIGHTED, THOSE ARE THE ONES
THAT THE CITY BUDGET OFFICE IS
OVERSEEING.
>> GOING BACK UP TO THE SUITE
AND BEVERAGE TAX, CONSUMPTION
BASICALLY AND WHETHER PERSONAL
BEHAVIOR WILL CHANGE TO SOFT
DRINKS ET CETERA WHERE PEOPLE
ARE COMING INTO WORK BUT THEY
MAY BE BRINGING THEIR LUNCH
INSTEAD BASED ON EXPECTATIONS
FROM THEIR FAMILY'S INCOME AND
SO FORTH. I THINK THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL ONE IS PROBABLY ,
MAYBE THE PARKING TAX.
>> FOR COMMERCIAL PARKING TAX,
SOME OF THIS REDUCTION IS DUE TO
A BASE EFFECT. IN 2024, ACTIVITY
, PARKING ACTIVITY WAS LOWER
THAN EXPECTED , ESPECIALLY IN Q3
AND Q4. SO THAT IS AFFECTING THE
LATER YEARS, AS WELL. THE OTHER
PART OF IT IS A WEAKENING
ECONOMIC OUTFIT -- OUTLOOK. 2025
AND 26 ARE A LITTLE BIT LOWER
AND A LOT OF THAT HAS TO DO WITH
THE FACT THAT LEISURE AND
HOSPITALITY EXERTS PROBABLY THE
MOST INFLUENCE ON COMMERCIAL
PARKING AND THAT OUTLOOK HAS
BEEN REVISED DOWN.
>> ALL RIGHT, THAT IS
ESSENTIALLY IT FOR THE REVENUE
FORECAST. OVERALL, THE DOWNWARD
IS WHEN WE COMBINE THE GENERAL
FUND AND THE RELATED REVENUES,
THE OVERALL VERSION IS ABOUT 100
MILLION FOR THIS YEAR , 141 FOR
NEXT YEAR SO ABOUT 241 FOR TWO
YEARS COMBINED. WITH THAT, WE
ARE HAPPY TO TAKE ANY QUESTIONS.
>> THANK YOU. WE SPENT AN EXTRA
15 MINUTES THAN PLANNED AND I
WANTED THAT TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY
BECAUSE OF HOW IMPORTANT THIS
NEWS IS. IT IS NOT WHAT WE
WANTED . THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
WE HAVE HAD A PESSIMISTIC
SCENARIO ADOPTED SINCE THE
RECESSION AND THE ONLY TIME
BEFORE THAT WOULD'VE BEEN THE
2008 RECESSION.
>> THAT IS CORRECT.
>> SO THIS IS BAD NEWS AND
SOMETHING WE NEED TO TAKE SOME
TIME ON. IF YOU WANT TO GO BACK
TO THE BEGINNING, WE ARE GOING
THROUGH THESE SLIDES AND IF YOU
HAVE QUESTIONS ON ANY OF THESE
SLIDES, JUST REACHED HER HAND. I
WILL MOVE US ONTO THE NEXT
AGENDA ITEM BECAUSE WE DO NEED
TO HAVE THAT BRIEF. IF YOU WANT
TO GO BACK TO SLIDE TWO, THE
GENERAL OUTLINE AND SEE IF
ANYONE HAS ANY QUESTIONS? SEE AS
WE HAVE NO QUESTIONS, WE CAN
MOVE ON TO THE NEXT SLIDE. I
WILL JUST SHARE WITH YOU MY
REFLECTIONS EVEN SINCE THIS LAST
WEEK, THIS SLIDE WAS CREATED FOR
LAST WEEK'S PRESENTATION AND
BASED OFF OF INFORMATION COMING
OUT THE WEEK AFTER APRIL 2nd.
EVEN TODAY, THE SLIDE FEELS OUT
OF DATE AND THAT IS WHAT I
WANTED TO SHARE. WITH THINGS
CHANGING SO RAPIDLY, IT IS HARD
FOR US TO KNOW . THIS SLIDE IS
ABOUT VOLATILITY DEMONSTRATED
JUST THAT. THIS IS ONE OF THE
REASONS WE TOOK THE PESSIMISTIC
OUTLOOK BECAUSE VOLATILITY IS SO
HIGH . I WILL SHARE SOME OF
THESE OTHER COMMENTS FOR LATER.
ANY QUESTIONS ON THIS SLIDE?
>> THANK YOU, COUNCILMEMBER DAN
STRAUSS AND WELCOME BACK . THANK
YOU FOR ALLOWING ME TO JOIN
TODAY'S DISCUSSION. THIS
QUESTION PERTAINS TO THE SLIDE
AND A COUPLE OF SLIDES RELATED
TO TARIFFS . I AM WONDERING IF
YOU ARE FACTORING IN ANY
INFORMATION FROM OUR PARTNERS AT
THE PORT AND HOW THAT MAY BE
FACTORING IN SOME OF THE
PROJECTIONS HERE .
>> THE WEATHER FORECAST IS
DEVELOPING, WE THINK THE
NATIONAL FORECAST FOR THE
NATIONAL ECONOMY, THAT ITSELF IS
BASED ON THE ASSUMPTIONS FOR
VARIOUS POLICIES. PEOPLE TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE IMPACT OF
TARIFFS. STARTING WITH THAT
FORECAST FOR THE NATIONAL
ECONOMY, WE DEVELOPED THE
REGIONAL WHERE WE ARE TRYING TO
FACTOR IN THE RELEVANT THINGS
FOR THE REGION. WE ARE LOOKING
AT THE EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY,
CONSTRUCTION PERMITS, FOR
EXAMPLE. AND SO TO THE EXTENT
THAT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE INDUSTRY COMPOSITION OF
REGIONAL ECONOMY VERSUS THE
NATIONAL ONE AND IN ONE
PARTICULAR SECTOR, PLAYING A
LARGER ROLL THAN THE REGIONAL
FORECAST WILL REFLECT. THAT
SECTOR --
>> THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU . ONE OF THE THINGS
LOOKING AT THIS, I HAVE BEEN
FOLLOWING ALONG THE NEWS THAT
COMES OUT EACH DAY AND I THINK
PART OF THIS IS HOW WE REFRAME
IT AND I THINK IT IS GOOD FOR
PUBLIC DISCUSSIONS. BASICALLY,
THE PRESIDENT HAS LEVIED A
MINIMUM OF 10% NATIONAL SALES
TAX ON US WHICH IS GOING TO HAVE
A DETRIMENTAL EFFECT ON OUR
LOCAL ECONOMY, REGIONAL ECONOMY
AND NATIONAL ECONOMY. GRANTED,
HE WILL SAY THERE IS REVENUE
COMING IN AND THAT IS GOOD FOR
THE DEFICIT OR THE DEBT BUT WE
SHOULD BE FRAMING THIS AS A
NATIONAL SALES TAX WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPACTS ON OUR LOCAL
ECONOMY AND IT IS REALLY NOT A
QUESTION BUT IF YOU WANT TO
SPEAK TO THE IMPACT OF HAVING
WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A TAX , I
JUST WANT TO HIGHLIGHT TARIFFS,
A LOT OF FOLKS SEE THIS AS THE
OSCILLATION AND IT GETS
CONFUSING THAT EVERYBODY
UNDERSTANDS WHAT A SALES TAX IS
AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY A
NATIONAL SALES TAX.
>> ANYTHING YOU WOULD LIKE TO
ADD?
>> THAT IS ACCURATE. THESE
TARIFFS ARE BEST TO THE
CONSUMERS. THEY WILL BE THE ONES
FACING A HIGHER PRICING.
>> AND I HAVE TO SAY WE ARE A
PORT ECONOMY IN THE CITY OF
SEATTLE. ON SITE 25 AND THE
APPENDIX, YOU WILL SEE THE CELLS
AND USE TAX REVENUE ACCOUNTING
FOR ONE THIRD OF TOTAL REVENUE
WITHIN THE GENERAL FUND SO THAT
IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT RELIANCE.
IF WE WERE TO UNDERCUT OUR
ABILITY TO HAVE COURT
ACTIVITIES, WE COULD BE PUTTING
ONE THIRD OF ALL OF THE SALES
AND USE TAX REVENUES. WE DON'T
NEED TO GO THERE. I'VE GOT
QUESTIONS FOR YOU LATER. LET'S
KEEP MOVING ON TO SLIDE FIVE,
THE VOLATILITY . I WILL JUST ASK
YOU, WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST
WEEK. THIS WAS A CHART CREATED
FOR LAST WEEK'S PRESENTATION.
>> THE VOLATILITY HAS GONE DOWN.
90 DAYS. WE WILL SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. NOT GREAT . IT HAS NOT
COME DOWN, SIGNIFICANTLY.
>> WE ARE COMING DOWN FOR 90
DAYS.
>> THE ANSWER MAY HAVE TO DO
WITH INCREDIBLY HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE'RE USED TO SEEING .
>> COLLEAGUES IN QUESTIONS ON
THIS SLIDE? WE WILL KEEP US
MOVING ON TO THE STOCK MARKET.
THIS IS A LITTLE HARD TO SEE. I
BELIEVE THE APRIL 11th. LOOKS TO
BE HALFWAY DOWN THE LINE AND
THAT IS BECAUSE ONE DAY, IT
DROPPED SO LOW AND CAME BACK UP
AND DROPPED A LITTLE BIT MORE.
IS THAT A CORRECT UNDERSTANDING
OF THIS SLIDE?
>> THIS MORNING, IT WAS
SOMEWHERE AROUND 53 , 35 .
SLIGHTLY LOWER . IT IS ABOUT
13%.
>> LAST YEAR, WE HAD A PRETTY
OPEN CONVERSATION. WHAT ARE YOU
SAYING? DO YOU THINK THE STOCK
MARKET WILL BE STABILIZING OR DO
WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR PAST 90 DAYS
OUT FROM HERE?
>> IT IS REALLY HARD TO TELL
WHERE THE FINANCIAL MARKET MIGHT
BE HEADING. THE S&P GLOBAL
FORECAST FOR THE YEAR AS A
WHOLE, ABOUT 1.5% INCREASE
COMPARED TO THE AVERAGE PREVIOUS
YEAR . THAT ESSENTIALLY MEANS
THAT THE STOCK PRICES WILL NOT
REACH PEAK. AGAIN, STABILIZING
MORE SIDEWAYS.
>> I SEE THAT YOU HAVE YOUR HAND
.
>> THANK YOU. WE'VE GOT A
QUESTION AND I NOTE THAT THERE
IS NO SLIDE THAT SAYS BOND
MARKET. AND WHAT IS INCREDIBLE
WITH TODAY'S SELF-INFLICTED
ECONOMIC CRISIS IS THAT OFTEN
WHEN THERE IS ECONOMIC CRISIS
THESE AROUND THE WORLD OR
TOUCHING US, WE ARE THE SAFE
HAVEN AND THE BOND MARKET
RESPONDS BUT, IN THIS CASE, IT
DOESN'T SEEM TO BE RESPONDING
THAT WAY AND IT IS CREATING
PROBLEMATIC CIRCUMSTANCES WITH
THE BOND MARKET WHICH THEN HAS
IMPACTED ON INTEREST RATES. CAN
YOU SPEAK TO THE FACT THAT WE NO
LONGER HAVE A SAFE HAVEN OR
ECONOMIC CRISIS AND HOW THAT
IMPACTS THE BOND MARKET? HOW
THAT IMPACTS INTEREST RATES AND
HOW IT IMPACTS
>> THAT IS A VERY GOOD POINT.
AND THE BOND MARKET, USUALLY
WHEN THERE IS VOLATILITY IN THE
STOCK MARKET, INVESTORS WILL GO
AND TRY TO BUY MORE BONDS AND
INCREASE THE PRICING AND LOWER
THE INTEREST RATES. PRICING AND
INTEREST RATES ARE INVERSELY
RELATED TO EACH OTHER . WHAT WAS
PARTICULARLY WORRYING IS THAT
THERE WAS A SALE NOT JUST IN THE
STOCK MARKET BUT ALSO IN THE
BOND MARKET FOR A BOND MARKET IN
PARTICULAR, LOWER DEMAND FOR US
GOVERNMENT HAS LOWERED THEIR
PRICE AND HAS LED TO A HIGHER
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE AND THEY
ARE INVERSELY RELATED TO EACH
OTHER. AND SO, HIRE A LONG-TERM
INTEREST RATE WILL THEN IMPLY
LESS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, LESS
INVESTMENT, LESS INSTRUCTION.
>> ARE THERE ANY OTHER QUESTIONS
ON THIS SLIDE?
>> COULD YOU EXPLAIN A LITTLE
BIT MORE THE POINT ABOUT ANY
PERSISTENT DECLINE WILL HAVE A
DIRECT IMPACT ON THE PAYROLL
SALES TAX? CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHY
THAT IS AND WHAT THAT IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE?
>> THIS CHART SHOWS S&P 500
INDEX STOCK MARKET AS A WHOLE .
IF YOU WERE TO LOOK AT THE
INDIVIDUAL PRICES FOR MAINE
BUSINESSES THAT HAVE LARGE
EMPLOYMENT IN THE AREA, THE
STORY WOULD BE SIMILAR. IT WOULD
BE A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN THE
STOCK MARKET VALUES FOR THE
COMPANIES WHO PAY BARREL EXPENSE
TAX AND WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE
PAST IS THE STRONG LINK BETWEEN
STOCK MARKET PRICES AND THE
BARREL EXPENSE TAX REVENUES .
THE LINK IS COMING FROM THE FACT
THAT THE COMPANIES PAY A LARGE
SHARE OF EXPENSE TAX. THEY ARE A
LARGE PART OF THE COMPENSATION
TO THEIR EMPLOYEES IN THE FORM
OF STRICT STOCK UNITS ,
ESSENTIALLY AT THE TIME, VALUED
AT THE CURRENT STOCK PRICE
VALUES AND SO, ESSENTIALLY LOWER
STOCK PRICES THAT LEAD TO THE
OVERALL VALUES OF COMPENSATION
THAT THESE COMPANIES PAY WHICH
WILL DIRECTLY TURN INTO LESS PAY
EXPENSE TAX REVENUES COLLECTED.
>> THANK YOU, CHAIR STRAUSS. I
AM WONDERING THIS JUMPSTART
PIECE ALSO , IF COMPANIES ARE
NOT DOING AS WELL AS YOU
DESCRIBED WITH THE STOCK MARKET,
DOES THAT ALSO IMPACT WEATHER
COMPANIES LAY OFF EMPLOYEES? YOU
KNOW, THEY SHRINK THEIR
FOOTPRINT IN ORDER TO
COMPENSATE. DO YOU SEE THOSE
THINGS, AS WELL, IN RESPONSE?
>> YES, THE OVERALL PRICE , THE
ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY THAT HAS
BEEN ELEVATED , THAT JUST LEADS
TO DECLINING BUSINESS SENTIMENT
AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SURVEYS
ON THAT. IN GENERAL, THE CASE
WHEN THERE IS MORE UNCERTAIN D,
THE COMPANIES WILL BE MORE
CAUTIOUS IN INVESTING AND MIGHT
INVOLVE SOME OF THE PROJECTS AND
HIGHER DECISIONS. IF THINGS GO
REALLY BAD AND THE ECONOMY GOES
INTO A RECESSION, WE WILL SEE
LAYOFFS. THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE WHY THE MAIN REGIONAL
EMPLOYERS WOULD BE DIFFERENT IN
ANY WAY FROM THE ECONOMY AS A
WHOLE .
>> SO THIS IS ALL PART , IT IS
ALL FAIR GAME FOR THE PURPOSES
OF THE FORECAST? MEANING, WE
COULD SEE COMPANIES --
>> WE ARE NOT ASSUMING MAJOR
LAYOFFS, WE ARE NOT ASSUMING A
RECESSION . THE PESSIMISTIC
SCENARIO IS JUST VERY SLOW
ECONOMIC GROWTH , NOT
PARTICULARLY DRAMATIC CHANGES
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. WE HAVE
ACCESS, NOW, TO THE WASHINGTON
STATE SECURITY THAT GIVES US
ACCESS ON COMPENSATION AND
UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE REGION. IN
SUMMER, WE WILL HAVE A FIRST
GLANCE OF WHAT 2025 IS SHAPING
UP TO BE.
>> THAT IS ONE OF THE THINGS
THAT WE STARTED TO CAREFULLY
LOOK AT, GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE
OF TAX IN 2024, WE HAVE TRIED TO
UNDERSTAND TO WHAT EXTENT THAT
HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY THE IMPLEMENT
CHANGES IN THE CITY OR OUTSIDE
OF THE CITY AS A WHOLE.
>> DO YOU HAVE ANYTHING YOU CAN
REPORT ON THAT? AS YOU ARE
LOOKING AT THAT OR IS THAT
SOMETHING WE WILL GET LATER?
>> THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SLIDES
ON THE 2024 ACTUALS VERSUS THE
FORECAST. THE PARTICULAR SLIDES
, 28 WHICH SUMMARIZE THE
FORECAST AND ACTUALS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. IN
GENERAL, IT IS A VERY HARD
SOURCE OF REVENUE TO FORECAST.
THERE'S ONLY ABOUT 500
EMPLOYERS . IT IS LARGELY
CONCENTRATED, HEAVILY
CONCENTRATED. THAT WILL ACCOUNT
FOR ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF THE
OVERALL REVENUES. IN 2024, AS I
SAID, WE HAD FORECASTED REVENUES
FOR 46 MILLION. WHICH IS ABOUT
5%. THE FORECAST IS THE BEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN FIVE YEARS. WHAT IS
MORE WORRYING IS THAT THE
ACTUALS CAN CLOSE A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST FROM OCTOBER OF 1.2
MILLION IN THE PESSIMISTIC
SCENARIO AND IT WAS NOT BECAUSE
THE STOCK PRICES DID NOT PERFORM
AS WELL AS EXPECTED. OVERALL,
2024 WAS A VERY STRONG YEAR FOR
STOCK PRICES AND THAT HAS LED US
TO BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE A
VERY GOOD YEAR. OVERALL, THAT
HAS NOT , THAT PROCESS HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED. IN FACT, THE
OBLIGATIONS FOR 2024 TAX
REVENUES HAVE GROWN ONLY 4.5% SO
THE PART THAT WE HAVE SEEN LAST
YEAR , 3% IS IN PART DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THEY WERE HIGHER TAX
RATES ON BUSINESSES LAST YEAR.
ACCOUNTING FOR THAT ADJUSTING,
FOR THAT INCREASE, IT IS ONLY
4.5%. AND WHAT WE WOULD TRY TO
DO IS COMPARED THE TAX BASE FOR
TAX REVENUES WITH THE GROSS OF
THE TOTAL COMPENSATION IS PAID
BY THE COMPANIES IN KING COUNTY
AS A WHOLE. THE CHART, HERE AND
I'M COMING TO THAT QUESTION,
THE CHART, THE BLUE LINE SHOWS
THE YEAR-OVER-YEAR INCREASES IN
TOTAL COMPENSATION . SO, IN
2020, 2021, COMPENSATIONS HAVE
GROWN SIGNIFICANTLY, 30%, 20% ,
ESSENTIALLY AS THE STOCK RISES
HAVE GONE UP IN THE PANDEMIC AND
EARLY POST-PANDEMIC PERIOD.
THOSE COMPENSATIONS HAVE GROWN .
AGAIN, WE HAVE SEEN A SIMILAR
THING IN 2023 AND WE WERE
EXPECTING TO SEE STRONG GROWTH
IN 2024 AND FOR THE
COMPENSATIONS AS A WHOLE , WHAT
DID NOT HAPPEN , THE THING THAT
SURPRISED US WAS THE VERY LOW
GROWTH AND ACTUAL PDR REVENUES
AND THAT IS WHAT THE REDLINE IS
SHOWING, FAXED -- FAST TAX RATE
GROWING AND YOU CAN SEE THAT
SIGNIFICANT GAP IN 2024 . IT HAS
GROWN AT 11.5% OVERALL AND
COMPENSATION HAS GROWN IN EXCESS
OF 30%, CLOSE TO 35%. AND SO,
THAT IS THE REASON WE ARE
LOOKING AT THE CHANGES IN
EMPLOYMENT SAFETY AND OUTSIDE OF
THE CITY.
>> THANK YOU. IT WASN'T THE
STOCK MARKET THAT MADE CHANGES
SO YOU ARE LOOKING IF IT WAS
EMPLOYEES GETTING MOVED OUT OF
THE CITY, IS THAT RIGHT?
>> IT DID NOT APPEAR THAT THE
STOCK MARKET WAS MOVING IN THAT
DIRECTION.
>> BEFORE WE GO BACK TO WHERE WE
WERE, IF YOU COULD GO BACK TO
SLIDE 28, THE ONE YOU WERE
TALKING ABOUT. THE PAYROLL
EXPENSE TAX BASED ON
PESSIMISTIC. JUST UNDERSTANDING
THAT YOU MADE A STATEMENT THAT
WE HAD A WEAKER PROJECTION AND I
THINK IT IS NOT NEWS WE WANTED
TO HEAR BUT I ALSO WANT TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF
STABILITY. WE HAVE NOT EVEN
COLLECTED THIS TAX FOR FIVE
YEARS AT THIS POINT. HOUR FIRST
TAX COLLECTION WAS IN 2021 .
>> 296 MILLION , THAT WAS THE
FIRST.
>> AND ORIGINAL PROJECTIONS FOR
THIS TAX REVENUE IS $200 MILLION
SO WE HAVE EXCEEDED THAT
ORIGINAL PROJECTION AND IT HAS
ONLY GONE UP YEAR-OVER-YEAR WITH
A STRONG STOCK MARKET. WITH AN
UNKNOWN WORKING SITUATION AND
OVER THE LAST NUMBER OF YEARS,
WORK FROM HOME HAS BEEN A
PREVALENT PLACE TO WORK FROM AND
WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS THAT
PEOPLE ARE COMING BACK TO WORK
FROM HOME. IN THE 2024 ACTUALS
FORECAST, NONE OF THIS TOOK INTO
ACCOUNT THAT LARGE EMPLOYERS
WERE COUNTING ON THEIR EMPLOYEES
TO BE IN THE OFFICE FIVE DAYS A
WEEK . THESE ARE ALL UNKNOWNS.
WE HAVE NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
WHAT DOES COMING INTO THE OFFICE
FIVE DAYS A WEEK LOOK LIKE. IS
THAT GOING TO HURT US? WILL THAT
HELP US? THESE ARE UNKNOWNS AT
THIS TIME BUT WHAT I DO KNOW IS
THAT HAVING A COLLECTION IN THE
FIRST FIVE YEARS OF COLLECTING
ANY KIND OF TAX HELPS US PREDICT
WITH MORE ACCURACY FOR THE
FUTURE OF BECAUSE THIS IS
SOMETHING I WAS SAYING LAST
YEAR, WE HAVE ONLY SEEN THIS TAX
REVENUE GO UP AND UP AND AT SOME
POINT, I WOULD RATHER REACH THE
TOP CENTER RATHER THAN LATER.
ANYTHING TO SHARE?
>> THAT WAS A GOOD ORAL SUMMARY,
YES. VERY FEW THINGS THAT WE
KNOW ABOUT IT . WHICH WITH THESE
EACH PIECE OF INFORMATION, THE
EMPLOYMENT SECURITY DEPARTMENT
AND THE STOCK PRICES ARE THE TWO
SIGNIFICANT INPUTS ON THE THIRD
ONE IS THE ONE THAT YOU ARE
REFERRING TO, KEEPING TRACK AND
THE WORKPLACE PRESENTS BY THE
EMPLOYEES SO WE WILL BE LOOKING
AT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN 25 AS
THERE IS THAT OFFICE RETURN.
>> AND I WAS SUPPOSED TO BRING
MY LUNCH AND I FORGOT. BUT
LET'S MOVE BACK TO SLIDE SIX
AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL BE ABLE TO
TAKE RIGHT ONTO SLIDE EIGHT.
>> MY QUESTION ON THIS SIDE,
LOOKING AROUND TO THE BOTTOM,
YOU KNOW ABOUT FEDERAL STATE AND
LOCAL POLICIES . AND I AM
WONDERING IF YOU CAN SPEAK TO
HOW YOU ARE MEASURING DECLINE AS
RECENT CHANGES OR PROJECTION OF
CHANGES AS WELL AS ANY LOSSES IN
THE FEDERALLY FUNDED RESEARCH
GRANTS AND POSITIONS THAT MAY BE
ATTACHED TO THOSE.
>> THE MARCH PESSIMISTIC
SCENARIO HAS ALREADY
INCORPORATED LOWER EMPLOYMENT
FOR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES
. SIMILAR WITH THE REGIONAL
ECONOMIC FORECASTS, WE DO HAVE
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY DATA AND
WE CAN ESSENTIALLY MODEL THE
REGIONAL FOR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
EMPLOYMENT BASED ON WHAT THE
ASSUMPTIONS ARE AT THE FEDERAL
LEVEL , AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL
ACCOUNTING FOR DIFFERENCES IN
HOW IMPORTANT OF A SECTOR OF
THAT PARTICULAR GOVERNMENT ,
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
-BASED. SO THE ORIGINAL FORECAST
ASSUMES SOME DECLINES.
>> I AM KIND OF BUILDING ON THAT
AND MORE OF A HOLISTIC
SITUATION. WHERE WITHIN THIS
FORECAST ARE WE TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT WITH THE CUTS IN FEDERAL
FUNDING SHOWING UP ACROSS OUR
CITY?
>> THAT IS NOT GOING TO BE
SOMETHING EXPLICITLY MODELED,
HERE . IT IS BUILT-IN TERMS OF
CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT, THE
ASSUMPTIONS, HOW THE EMPLOYMENT
FOR DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES MIGHT
LOOK LIKE A YEAR AGO OR A YEAR
AHEAD DEPENDING ON SOME OF THE
THINGS. HOW MUCH FUNDING THERE
IS FOR THE HEALTHCARE RELATED
RESEARCH.
>> I CERTAINLY APPRECIATE THAT
AND THIS IS FOR US WITH GREAT
RESPECT . IT FEELS LIKE THE
MISSING PIECE AS WE ARE COMING
INTO BUDGET DELIBERATIONS AND
TRYING TO DISCERN WHAT MAY BE
COMING OUR WAY IN TERMS OF
FEDERAL FUNDING . KNOWING THAT
THAT WILL BE THE PART THAT
COLLEAGUES NEED TO BE FIGURING
OUT IN THE MONTHS TO COME, JUST
TO UNDERSTAND WHAT'S COMING OUR
WAY.
>> THANK YOU. SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE COUNCILMEMBER NOTED, THERE
ARE MANY INSTANCES WHERE IT IS
QUITE CLEAR THAT THE EMPLOYMENT
IN OUR CITY IS DROPPING
DRAMATICALLY. IF YOU JUST LOOK
AT GSA AT THE JACKSON BUILDING,
NEVERMIND NOAH AND THE VARIOUS
AGENCIES, THEY ARE BEING
IMPACTED RIGHT NOW. MY QUESTION
IS, WITH THE CONDUCT OF
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSHIPS ,
FOREIGN AFFAIRS BY THE
ADMINISTRATION , THIS HAVING AN
IMPACT , IT IS IMMIGRATION
RELATED, BASICALLY, WE ARE
SUFFERING FROM AN INTERNATIONAL
BOYCOTT AND I THINK THIS IS
REAL. I WANTED TO ASK ABOUT
CANADA. THE TALK ABOUT THE 51st
DATES, I DON'T THINK GREENLAND
DISCUSSIONS ARE HELPFUL, EITHER.
WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE A MAJOR
DECLINE IN CANADIAN VISITS,
TOURISM. WHEN THE BLUE JAYS COME
TO TOWN, TRIPS, VICTORIA, DC,
ALL OF THE ABOVE AND
ESSENTIALLY, WE ARE UNDER A
BOYCOTT AND I THINK THIS IS ALSO
BEING IMPACTED FROM EUROPE BASED
ON WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH GERMAN
NATIONALS AND UK NATIONALS AND I
AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE IMPACT ON
THE CRUISE SHIP ESTIMATES, 2.
CAN YOU SPEAK INTERNATIONALLY TO
THE BOYCOTT OF AMERICA AND
ESSENTIALLY HOW IT IMPACTS US
HERE LIKE USING THE BLUE JAYS OR
THE CANADIAN EXAMPLE OR THE
IMPACT ON THE CRUISE SHIPS FOR
THE SEASON?
>> WE WERE TRYING TO SEE WHAT
DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM VISITORS
COMING FROM CANADA. DATA IS A
LITTLE BIT HARD TO OBTAIN ,
THERE ARE NO DATA SOURCES THAT
WOULD SPECIFICALLY KEEP TRACK OF
THAT BUT WHAT WE CAN DO IS LOOK
AT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF
VISITORS IN THE CITY OF SEATTLE.
AGAIN, WE HAVE A DATA SET THAT
ALLOWS US TO ESSENTIALLY KEEP
TRACK OF NOT JUST THE PRESENCE
IN THE WORKPLACE BUT ALSO THE
NUMBER OF VISITORS COMING TO
SEATTLE . IT IS HARD TO TELL
WHERE THEY ARE COMING FROM BUT
THE OVERALL NUMBER OF VISITORS
IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING THAT YOU
ARE KEEPING TRACK OF JUST LIKE
THE SEATTLE ASSOCIATION. AND SO,
WE HAVE SEEN YEAR-OVER-YEAR
DECLINES IN THE NUMBER OF
VISITORS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF
MONTHS IN 2025. PART OF THAT IS
LIKELY LOWER A NUMBER OF
VISITORS COMING FROM CANADA THAT
ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP IN THOSE
NUMBERS SO IT IS CERTAINLY A
LARGE TRACE LIKE REVENUES, SALES
TAX REVENUES, IT WILL BE -- IN
ADDITION TO THAT FOOT TRAFFIC WE
WILL BE CLOSELY KEEPING TRACK OF
RESERVATIONS FOR HOTELS AND
OVERALL, WE ARE RELYING AND
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT AND TRYING
TO UPDATE THEIR FORECAST BASED
ON WHAT THEY ARE SEEING. WE
DON'T HAVE RESOURCES BUT WE ARE
INDIRECTLY INCORPORATING THINGS
LIKE RATES, REVENUE AVAILABLE IN
HOTELS, FOOT TRAFFIC DATA, THE
NUMBER OF VISITORS. THINGS LIKE
THAT.
>> THIS IS MORE A FIGHT FOR YOU,
MR. CHAIR, ON TIMING. YOU KNOW
THAT 11:00 IS WHEN WE WILL PIVOT
TO THE NEXT AGENDA ITEM WHICH IS
SOMETHING I WOULD GENERALLY
SUPPORT. I KNOW THAT WE ARE
DOING A PAGE TURN RIGHT NOW OF A
21 PAGE SLIDE DECK WHICH, AT
THIS POINT, IF THERE IS NO
FLEXIBILITY IN THE 11:00 PM
AGENDA SHIFT, IT IS NOT THE MOST
EFFICIENT THING. I DO HAVE THAT
DO NOT FIT NEATLY IN ONE
PARTICULAR SLIDE OR ANOTHER. SO
I SAY ALL OF THAT, IF THERE IS A
MORE EFFICIENT WAY TO DO THIS OR
MAYBE I CAN PIVOT MOMENTARILY TO
MY QUESTIONS, TAKE IT AWAY. I
APPRECIATE THE PRESENTATION. CAN
YOU START BY -- MY QUESTION , I
SUPPOSE SLIDE 19 IS A GOOD JUMP
OFF POINT. AND THANK YOU FOR
SOME OF THE EARLIER
CLARIFICATION ABOUT THE
DECLINING GRANT THAT BASICALLY
TIES TO WHAT WAS SPENT VERSUS
WHAT GENERALLY OCCURS OVER
MULTIPLE YEARS. AND DECLINING
REVENUES FOR RED LIGHT CAMERAS I
HEARD WAS A FACTOR. AND
YESTERDAY, IN MY TRANSPORTATION
COMMITTEE, WE HEARD AND
DISCUSSED A PROPOSAL TO EXPAND
RED LIGHT CAMERAS, NON-RED LIGHT
CAMERAS, SPEED CAMERAS, NON-
SCHOOL ZONE CAMERAS , ALL OF THE
ABOVE AND COUNSEL AUTHORIZED
DURING OUR BUDGET LAST YEAR TO
DOUBLE THE NUMBER OF SCHOOL ZONE
CAMERAS AND IN PARTNERSHIP WITH
COUNCILMEMBER DAN STRAUSS, I
ALSO AND HIS COUNSEL ALSO
ALLOCATED $1.18 MILLION FOR
NONSCHOOL SPEEDS ON CAMERA .
THAT WILL REPRESENT A
SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION IN THE
PROGRAM. FOR THE GENERAL FUND ,
I AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THE
PROPOSED ALLOCATION IS CORRECT.
AND I WANT TO BE CRYSTAL CLEAR
THAT THE CITY'S INTERPRETATION
THAT ANY REVENUES FOR THESE NEW
CAMERAS WOULD BE DEPLOYED ,
THERE ARE ARE NO LONGER ANY
RECENT CHANGES TO STATE LAW AND
NO LONGER REVENUE-SHARING
PROPORTION REQUIRED TO SHARE A
CERTAIN AMOUNT WITH THE STATE. I
JUST WANT TO BE CRYSTAL CLEAR ON
THAT. ALL OF THAT IS TO SAY THAT
SEATTLE WILL BE EXPANDING OUR
AUTOMATED ENFORCEMENT CAMERA
PROGRAM AND BASED OFF OF THE
PROPOSED LEGISLATION , WHAT ARE
THE PROJECTED AND ANTICIPATED
NEW REVENUES? THAT WE COULD
EXPECT AS A CITY BASED OFF OF
THE CURRENT PROPOSAL THAT
ALLOCATES A SPECIFIED AMOUNT
TOWARD A GENERAL FUND AND A
SPECIFIED AMOUNT TOWARD ROAD
SAFETY PREPARES. AND IF YOU
DON'T HAVE THE ANSWER TODAY, I
UNDERSTAND THAT. I DO WANT TO
FOLLOW UP BUT IF YOU HAVE ANY
INITIAL REMARKS ON WHAT THE
CITIES STRATEGIC ROLLOUT AND
EXPANSION OF OUR AUTOMATED
ENFORCEMENT PROGRAM WOULD LOOK
LIKE FOR THE CITY'S REVENUE.
>> THANK YOU FOR THAT QUESTION.
I THINK WE NEED TO GET BACK TO
YOU ON THAT. I THINK THERE IS A
QUESTION OF WHAT IS IN THE
FORECAST AND WHAT IS NOT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE PROPOSED
CHANGES SO WE WANT TO MAKE SURE
WE GET YOU THE RIGHT
INFORMATION.
>> THANK YOU . AND AGAIN, HIS
COUNSEL HAS AUTHORIZED THE
DOUBLING OF SCHOOL ZONE CAMERAS.
THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AND
ALLOCATED $1.18 MILLION FOR
NONSCHOOL ZONE SPEED CAMERAS
HAVE AN IMPACT. SO I WOULD LOVE
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE
ANTICIPATED IMPACT ON THAT, ON
OUR FINANCIALS GOING FORWARD. WE
WILL STAY TUNED ACCORDINGLY .
SO, ON ONE OF THE EARLIER SLIDES
LIKE SLIDE 16, YOU TALK ABOUT
THE GRANTS , THE FORECAST AND
THE ACTUALS VERSUS THE ACTUALS
AND THE VARIANTS AND THE
SPENDING IS THE UNDERLYING OR IN
SOME CASES, THE LACK THEREOF OR
SPENT OVER TIME . WHAT ABOUT
FUTURE GRANTS? WHAT ARE SOME OF
THE ASSUMPTIONS MAKING WITH
RESPECT TO FUTURE GRANTS GOING
FORWARD? IT IS NO SECRET THAT IN
OUR OWN CITY, HERE WE ARE, WE
ARE IN A BUDGET OPPORTUNITY, A
HUGE BUDGET DEFICIT. THE COUNTY
IS NOT MUCH BETTER OFF. KING
COUNTY. THE STATE, THE SAME
THING. THEY ARE FEVERISHLY
WORKING HARD TO FIGURE OUT HOW
TO SOLVE BUDGET CHALLENGES. THE
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO THE EXTENT
THAT THERE IS NOT ANY EXPANSION
OF ANY SPENDING , IT IS UNDER
CRITERIA THAT I AM AWARE OF AT
LEAST WITH RESPECT TO
TRANSPORTATION POLICY. CITIES
LIKE SEATTLE AND THE STATE OF
WASHINGTON ARE NOT GOING TO
BENEFIT FROM REVISED GUIDELINES
AND FUTURE GRANT PUTTING ASIDE
THE FACT THAT THE TRANSPORTATION
I'LL SEE POLICY ASPECT, ALREADY
PROMISED AND ALREADY COMMITTED
FUNDING AND HERE WE ARE IN THIS
LIMITED RESOURCE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE BOARD IN TERMS OF
GRANTS. WHAT KINDS OF
ASSUMPTIONS ARE REMAKING? TO
KIND OF LOOK BACK AT SOME OF THE
GRANTS ALREADY COMMITTED TO, OR
REALLOCATED OR WHATEVER BUT HOW
ABOUT ON A GOING FORWARD BASIS?
WHAT KIND OF ASSUMPTIONS ARE
REMAKING AS A CITY FOR GRANT
FUNDING , LEVERAGE FUNDING?
>> AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES,
WE ONLY INCLUDE WHAT DEPARTMENT
SAID THOSE WORKING ON THE
PROJECTS APPLYING, RECEIVING AND
I DON'T KNOW IF YOU HAVE MORE
TO SAY ABOUT THIS BUT WE ONLY
INCLUDE THOSE WHO ARE KNOWN. IF
SOMEONE IN THE DEPARTMENT SAYS I
HOPE I CAN GET A GRANT FOR THIS
OR THAT PURPOSE, WE WAIT FOR
SOME SENSE OF REALITY OF AN
APPROVAL ON THE GRANT .
>> A CHANGE IN POLICY AND RESULT
IN DIALOGUE WITH THE COUNSEL ,
WHAT STAGE SHOULD WE BE ASSUMING
WE HAVE REVENUES? JUST TO SORT
OF GET YOU STARTED THINKING
ABOUT GRANT IN A PARTICULAR WAY
, WE HAVE BALANCED A BUDGET FOR
2025 ON AN ASSUMED LEVEL OF
GRANTS AND THOSE GRANTS ARE IN
FACT USED TO PAY FOR A VARIETY
OF THINGS INCLUDING CITY
SALARIES. WE KNOW WE CAN SUSTAIN
ON THE ASSUMPTION OF THE GRANTS
WE HAVE. THE DEPARTMENT WILL GO
OUT AND BE MORE ENTREPRENEURIAL
AND BRING IN NEW GRANTS. AND IT
EXPANDS THE BUDGET LEADING US TO
HIRE NEW TEMPORARY EMPLOYEES WHO
MIGHT NOT OTHERWISE -- BUT TO
EMPHASIZE THE POINT, AND
INCREASING GRANT , THAT GRANT
REVENUE IS BEING GIVEN TO US TO
DO A VERY SPECIFIC THING WHILE
OTHER REVENUES ARE AVAILABLE. WE
TRY TO BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE
BUDGETING CONTEXT KNOWING WE
COULD HAVE THEM LATER. BUT ONE
OF THE THINGS THAT HAS BEEN
ASSUMED CONSISTENTLY WITH THIS
REVISED POLICY IS TO THE EXTENT
THAT THEY ARE PREDICTING FORMULA
GRANTS, AND WE HAVE RELIABLY
GOTTEN AN ALLOCATION FOR YEARS.
AND IT IS BUILT INTO THE BUDGET
FOR 25, AN ASSUMPTION IN THOSE
REVENUES. AND WHETHER OR NOT
THOSE GRANTS COME THROUGH IS
LITERALLY IN THE MOMENT TBD AND
TO THE DEGREE, BEING PLAYED OUT
IN COURTROOMS. THAT PART IS
DIFFERENT AND AS WE MOVE FORWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, I AM
THINKING ABOUT WHAT THE AUGUST
FORECAST LOOKS LIKE.
>> A LITTLE EARLY TO START
ACCURATELY FORECASTING THE
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF WORLD CUP IN
2026 BUT THIS YEAR, THERE IS A
ROADSHOW AND IT WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT AND THAT IS THE 2025 SO
JUST CURIOUS TO HEAR YOUR
PERSPECTIVE ON THE IMPACT. AND
LOCAL ECONOMY AND ASSOCIATED
REVENUES.
>> WE ARE TRYING TO COLLECT
INFORMATION FROM OTHER REPORTS
ABOUT THE ECONOMIC IMPACT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE ECONOMIC IMPACT
NUMBER FOR CITIES ARE SIMILAR
FOR SEATTLE BASED ON SCHEDULING.
HOW THAT TRANSLATES TO ABOUT THE
CITY'S REGIONAL ECONOMY AND THE
IMPACT ON REVENUES, THAT IS THE
PARK WE ARE STILL TRYING TO
UNDERSTAND, NOW.
>> [ LOW AUDIO VOLUME ] IT IS
ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE -- SO ALL
OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON TAX
REVENUES WILL BE IN DIRECT AND
THAT IS THE PORTION WE ARE
SPECIFICALLY TRYING TO WORK ON
NOW. AND WE WILL UPDATE THE TAX
REVENUE FORECAST ON A
CASE-BY-CASE BASIS. BUT STILL
EXCITED .
>> JUST FOR CLARIFICATION, DOES
THAT $500 MILLION FIGURE OR $700
MILLION FIGURE, DOES THAT
PERTAIN TO 2026 WORLD CUP OR IS
THAT 2025 CLUB WORLD CUP WHICH
IS WHAT I WAS MOST INTERESTED
IN.
>> IT IS REALLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT OTHER CITIES ARE MAKING
THEIR ASSUMPTIONS ON. EVERY CITY
IS REALLY UNIQUE . FOR SEATTLE,
WE HAVE TO TAKE TIME AND
COMPARE.
>> THANK YOU, THAT WOULD BE VERY
HELPFUL. SO THERE ARE JUST
THREE. IT IS SMALLER THAN THE
FEE FOR GAMES WHEN THEY GET HERE
IN 2026 BUT THESE ARE MAJOR
CLUBS COMING SO WE WILL SEE WHAT
KIND OF DRAW THAT HAS ON
TOURISM, ON SALES. THERE WON'T
BE ALL OF THE HOOPLA THAT IS
GOING TO COME WITH THE WORLD CUP
OF 2026 SOME OF THOSE ANCILLARY
REVENUES PROBABLY WON'T SHOW
UP.
>> AS AN INTERIM ALONG FAN,
THERE ARE A GOOD NUMBER OF
TICKETS AVAILABLE FOR THE WORLD
CUP. I AM NOT ADVERTISING. YOU
ASKED ABOUT THE IMPACT. THE
OTHER THING AND I THINK THIS IS
A REALLY IMPORTANT POINT, ALL OF
THESE NUMBERS YOU HEAR , ALMOST
ALL OF THEM ARE QUOTED AS THE
TOTAL IMPACT AND NOT THE NET
IMPACT. I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT
TO RECOGNIZE THE OCCUPANCY IN
SEATTLE HOTELS IN THE SUMMER
WITH OR WITHOUT THE WORLD CUP IS
99% OR CLOSE TO IT SO HOW MUCH
MORE? I THINK WE WILL SEE MORE
INTERNATIONAL TRAVELERS. BUT
THOSE NUMBERS ARE GROSS. THEY
ARE NOT WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE
GOING ON SO WE WILL SEE LESS OF
A BUMP BECAUSE WE ARE PLENTY
BUSY IN THE SUMMER ALL THE TIME
AND THAT IS A GOOD THING. I SEE
THOSE NUMBERS AND THEY BOTHER ME
BECAUSE THEY ARE USUALLY QUOTED
OUT OF CONTEXT.
>> THE FINAL QUESTION . IT
PERTAINS TO TOURISM. WHEN WE
TALK ABOUT HIGH LEVELS AND
DRIVERS OF TOURISM AND COUNSEL
MEMBER KETTLE TALKED ABOUT WHAT
IS ESSENTIALLY AMOUNTING TO AN
ECONOMIC BOARD DOSE BOYCOTT.
IMPACTED BY THE COUNTERPRODUCTIV
E DISCUSSION AT THE FEDERAL
LEVEL . I CAN ABSOLUTELY ASSURE
YOU THAT THE CANADIANS WILL SHOW
UP IN FORCE FOR THE BLUE JAYS
GAME AND TURN THOSE INTO
EFFECTIVELY HOME GAMES FOR THE
TORONTO BLUE JAYS. I CANNOT
GUARANTEE ANYTHING ELSE OR STAY
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THEY
WILL SHOW UP IN OTHER AREAS BUT
THAT IS ALMOST CERTAIN. BY
TALKING ABOUT OTHER TOURISM
DRIVERS, MY UNDERSTANDING IS
THAT THIS CRUISE SEASON THAT I
JUST KICKED OFF LAST WEEK OR TWO
WEEKS AGO, THE PORT ANTICIPATES
THIS TO BE THE REASON THE
BUSIEST CRUISE SEASON EVER BY
TWO OR THREE SEASONS OR
SOMETHING LIKE THAT AND WHO
KNOWS WHAT NEXT YEAR LOOKS LIKE
AND HOPEFULLY, MORE SUCCESS TO
BUILD UPON ON THE TOURISM SECTOR
WITH RESPECT TO THE CRUISE
INDUSTRY NEXT YEAR. WHAT OTHER
KIND OF SIGNATURE MARQUEE EVENTS
OR OPPORTUNITIES COULD HELP
DRIVE TOURISM HERE IN SEATTLE?
ALL OF THE TOMFOOLERY OUTSIDE OF
SEATTLE NOTWITHSTANDING. AND I
SAY THAT BECAUSE GETTING PEOPLE
HERE IN THE CITY AND BOOKING
HOTELS IS A NECESSARY CONDITION
LIKE GETTING THESE SEEDS SOLD
AND TICKETS SOLD, NOT SUFFICIENT
TO HELP GENERATE REVENUE AND WE
NEED TO GET THEM TO SPEND AND
BUY THINGS. JUST CURIOUS TO SOME
OF THE OTHER BROADER MACRO
TOURISM DRIVERS FOR THE CITY.
>> WHEN IT COMES TO THAT
RECORD-BREAKING SEASON, THAT WAS
THE PREDICTION MADE. MORE THAN
TWO WEEKS TO GO IN THE RECENT
FINANCIAL MARKETS. AND THE
CANCELLATION THAT THE CANADIANS
MIGHT CONSIDER. THERE ARE IN
GENERAL I WOULD SAY A LOT OF
DOWNSIDE TO THE TOURISM BECAUSE
OF THE EFFECTS. IF PEOPLE SEE
THEIR SAVINGS SHRINK, THEY ARE
PROBABLY LESS LIKELY TO BOOK A
CRUISE VACATION, THEY ARE LESS
LIKELY TO TRAVEL. AND SO, WE
WILL HAVE POSSIBLY MORE CLARITY
OF WHAT THE SEASON LOOKS LIKE
OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTH. I
WOULD BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT THE
DOWNSIDE
>> THANK YOU. NO FURTHER
QUESTIONS.
>> WE ARE AT 11:03 AND I DID SEE
A COUPLE OF OTHER HANDS SO
COUNCILMAN RIVERA, I WILL GIVE
YOU ABOUT FIVE MINUTES AND I SAW
THAT COUNCILMAN RINK WANTED TO
MAKE A CLOSING STATEMENT SO YOU
WILL HAVE A LITTLE LESS THAN
FIVE MINUTES AND WE WILL JUMP
RIGHT INTO THE GRANT ACCEPTANCE.
COUNCILMAN RIVERA ?
>> I JUST WANTED TO IF I MAY TRY
TO LEVEL SET, THE FORECAST
OFFICE IS NOT GOING TO BE GIVING
US AN ACCOUNTING ON OUR FEDERAL
FUNDING THAT WE ARE LOSING. THAT
IS NOT WHAT THEY DO, OBVIOUSLY.
IT HAS IMPLIED THE FEDERAL
ACTIONS ARE HAVING AN IMPACT ON
THE STOCK MARKET . THAT IS WHAT
HE AND THE TEAM ARE TALKING
ABOUT AND WE ALSO KNOW THAT CITY
ACTION ARE ALSO IMPACTING
REVENUES. I DO WANT TO SAY, I
DID TALK TO YOUR TEAM, I
COMMUNICATED WITH YOUR TEAM
ABOUT CBO'S RESPONSIBILITY IS
TO TRACK THE FEDERAL IMPACTS AND
TO LET US KNOW WHAT THOSE
FEDERAL IMPACTS ARE AND MY
UNDERSTANDING DIRECTOR NOBLE
FROM YOUR TEAM IS THAT THEY ARE
RIGHT NOW NO CHANGES TO THE
GRANT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE .
IN OTHER WORDS, THE FEDERAL
GRANTS WE HAVE BEEN AWARDED ARE
BEING DRAWN DOWN AND BEING PAID
ON TIME BY THE FED AS OF NOW. WE
DON'T KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE BUT IT WAS
IMPORTANT. IT WAS IMPORTANT TO
ME TO KNOW THAT INFORMATION SO I
AM SHARING IT WITH YOU ALL.
COLLEAGUES ALSO WANTED TO MAKE
SURE -- YOU MIGHT BE IN FUTURE
HAVING A DIFFERENT PANEL TO TALK
ABOUT SOME OF THIS INFORMATION
BUT ALSO TO LEVEL SET THE
FORECAST OFFICES TO TELL US
ABOUT HOW MUCH FUNDING WE ARE
LOSING FROM THE FEDS AND WHERE
BUT MORE OF THE CONVERSATION IS
THE IMPACT OF FEDERAL ACTION IS
HAVING ON THE ECONOMY ,
IMPACTING OUR REVENUE FORECAST,
AS WELL. SO THANK YOU FOR
LETTING ME MAKE THAT COMMENT. I
THOUGHT IT WAS AN IMPORTANT ONE.
>> VERY WELL SAID. THE ONLY
RESPONSE I HAVE TO ANYTHING YOU
SAID TODAY IS THAT WHILE RED
LIGHT CAMERAS REVENUE IS DOWN,
THAT IS GOOD FOR THE CITY, BAD
FOR THE BUDGET. THAT IS ABOUT IT
. IF WE COULD GO TO SLIDE 21 , I
WILL PASS THE FLOOR OVER TO
COUNSEL MEMBER AND I WILL HAVE
JUST A FEW CLOSING STATEMENTS.
AFTER COUNSEL MEMBER RINK, --
>> THANK YOU COUNCILMEMBER DAN
STRAUSS AND THANK YOU TO THE
ENTIRE TEAM . THANK YOU FOR
FIELDING ALL OF OUR QUESTIONS AS
IT HAS BECOME VERY CLEAR THAT WE
ARE GRAPPLING WITH A MAJOR
CHALLENGE FACING THE CITY AND
THE NEWS THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED
IN THIS MOST RECENT FORECAST IS
NOT GREAT BUT AS WE HAVE ADOPTED
THE PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO IN
ANTICIPATION THAT OUR UPCOMING
FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE WORSE
AND IN RECOGNITION OF THAT, I
THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO BE
CLEAR WITH THE PUBLIC AND BE
CLEAR WITH OURSELVES THAT WE ARE
HEADING INTO AN INCOMING ALERT
AND WE KNOW THE STATE IS
CONTINUING TO GRAPPLE WITH
BUDGET CHALLENGES AND THERE WAS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT
KIND OF FEDERAL CUTS OF A REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE . THERE IS
A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND EVEN WITH THE
INDICATORS, IT IS NOT LOOKING
GREAT. AND TO THAT END, HE HAS A
BODY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
CRAFTING A BUDGET AND WHAT MIGHT
BE THE WORST ECONOMIC STORM IN
OUR LIFETIME. AND WE WILL NEED
TO BE WORKING WITH OUR PARTNERS
COORDINATING WITH KING COUNTY
AND EXAMINING ALL OF THE
AVAILABLE LOCAL FUNDING SERVICES
BECAUSE THESE WILL BE ESSENTIAL
AS WE FACE SHARED CHALLENGES
THAT ARE TRANSITING OUR CITY
BOUNDARIES BUT WE ALSO NEED TO
BE HONEST THAT TIGHTENING THE
BELT AND COORDINATING WITH OUR
REGIONAL WORKERS ISN'T GOING TO
CLOSE THE GAP TO SPEAK AND THAT
SEEMS TO BE GROWING. IN MY
OPINION, WE CANNOT THE BUDGET ON
THE BACKS OF WORKING FAMILIES.
LAYING OFF DEDICATED SERVICE
MATT CARASITI FUNCTION. -- AND
CRITICAL CITY SERVICES SO THAT
WE CAN HAVE A CONTINUATION OF
OUR CITY SERVICES AND DELIVER ON
THAT THE PUBLIC WILL BE
IMPORTANT AND THANK YOU FOR
ALLOWING ME TO PROVIDE THOSE
COMMENTS.
>> I WILL SHARE MY FINAL SET OF
COMMENTS AND GIVE YOU THE LAST
WORD, TODAY. FOR ME, I ALWAYS
LIKE TO SHARE THINGS THAT ARE
DIFFERENT THIS YEAR THAN PAST
YEARS. HOW ARE WE CHANGING THE
PRACTICES THAT CITY COUNSEL? ONE
OF THE THINGS THAT IS DIFFERENT
IS THAT WE HAVE INVITED THE
FORECAST OFFICE IN THE CITY
BUDGET OFFICE TO THIS COMMITTEE.
IN THE PAST, THAT DID NOT
NECESSARILY HAPPEN SO THIS IS A
WAY FOR US TO ENGAGE ESPECIALLY
WITH TURMOIL OCCURRING IN THE
UNDERSTANDING OF THE ECONOMIC
SITUATION. WE WERE FOCUSED TODAY
MOSTLY ON THE NATIONAL WHEN WE
WERE LOOKING AT THE S&P 500.
WHEN WE LOOK AT THE CITY OF
SEATTLE, OUR ECONOMY HAS BEEN
STAGNATING FOR ABOUT FOUR YEARS
AND THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WE
CAN GET INTO IN A FUTURE
DISCUSSION BUT I JUST HIGHLIGHT
THAT BECAUSE WHILE WE ARE
LOOKING AT THESE NATIONAL DATA
TRENDS, HERE ACROSS THE BOARD,
WE HAVE BEEN STAGNATING. I DID
NOT WANT TO GET INTO THE
DEFINITION OF RECESSION LOCALLY
VERSUS NATIONALLY, I JUST NEED
US TO ALL BE VERY AWARE THAT
THIS IS ANOTHER TIME WHERE WE
HAVE HAD A DOWNTURN IN THE
REVENUE FORECAST. I SEE A
POPPING UP AND DOWN. I WILL SAY
IN CLOSING, WE HAVE ANOTHER
FORECAST IN AUGUST. WE HAVE
ANOTHER FORECAST IN A SOBER
BEFORE THE FINAL CITY BUDGET
ACTION. DOMESTIC SCENARIOS TO
THE BEST OF THEIR ABILITY WILL
SET US UP TO SUCCEED IF THE
ECONOMY IT IMPROVES HOWEVER,
NONE OF THESE SCENARIOS TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT A RECESSION SO IF
WE MOVE INTO A RECESSION, THAT
IS A DIFFERENT POSITION THAN WE
ARE TODAY IN THIS PESSIMISTIC
SCENARIO. LOOKING AT THIS SLIDE,
WE HAVE $240 MILLION TO PLUG FOR
THIS FALL. WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK
AT WHAT IS SCALABLE. WE WILL
HAVE TO LOOK AT WHAT COST
SAVINGS DID ACHIEVE BY NOT
SPENDING MONEY UNNECESSARILY.
THE MAYOR OVER THE LAST SEVEN
DAYS HAS PUT FORWARD DIFFERENT
ADVISEMENTS , TWO DEPARTMENTS,
TO START THIS WORK AND FINALLY,
WHAT WILL THE ECONOMY AND FUTURE
FORECASTS HOLD FOR US? WHEN WE
LOOK AT THESE FORECAST, SHOULD
THE STOCK MARKET BE A BEAR
MARKET OR BULL MARKET ? IF WE
BECOME A BULL MARKET, WE ARE
GOING TO BE IN A VERY DIFFERENT
POSITION. IF WE SEE REAL ESTATE
TRANSACTIONS OCCURRING AT A
DIFFERENT RATE, THAT WILL BE
PUTTING US IN A DIFFERENT
POSITION. IF WE SEE SALES TAX
COMING IN BECAUSE WE ALL FORGOT
OUR LUNCH TOO MANY TIMES THIS
WEEK, THESE ARE ALL VARIABLES.
WHAT IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW ON
APRIL 16th OF 2025 IS THAT THERE
IS SO MUCH VOLATILITY FROM THREE
WEEKS AGO TO LAST WEEK TO TODAY
THAT THE QUESTIONS WERE ANSWERED
TODAY, WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IN 90
DAYS SO I THINK WE ARE IN A
PERIOD, AND EYE OF THE STORM.
THIS IS CALM, TODAY. WE JUST
WENT THROUGH ROUGH SEAS AND WE
WILL HAVE MORE IN A FEW WEEKS
BUT I PUT THAT ALL INTO CONTEXT
THAT WE NEED TO BE VERY CAREFUL
AS WE MOVE FORWARD. I BELIEVE WE
WILL BE PREPARED FOR THAT AND WE
JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS
SHAKE OUT. WITH THAT, DIRECTOR,
I WILL GIVE YOU AND YOUR TEAM
THE LAST WORD.
>> SO, WE ARE GOING TO WORK OUR
BEST TO SUPPORT YOUR WORK ANYWAY
WE CAN IN ADDITION TO WORKING ON
THE FORECAST, OUR OFFICE IS
ALWAYS AVAILABLE TO WORK ON ANY
REQUESTS THAT ARE RELATED TO
EITHER MAKING SENSE OF DATA OR
CONDUCTING SOME STUDIES AND THAT
IS SOMETHING WE CAN ALLOCATE IN
THE FORECAST.
>> WONDERFUL. THANK YOU, TEAM .
I WILL SWITCH UP TO THE NEXT
PRESENTATION PRETTY RAPIDLY
BECAUSE WE HAVE GOT JUST A FEW
MINUTES BEFORE THE 11TH:30
COMPLETION SO WE WILL MOVE ON TO
THE SECOND ITEM OF BUSINESS.
>> AND ORDINANCE RELATED TO THE
FUNDING FROM NON-CITY SERVICES
AUTHORIZING THE HEADS OF VARIOUS
DEPARTMENTS TO AUTHORIZE AND
EXPENDITURE FOR GRANTS, FUNDING
AND LOANS. EXECUTE, DELIVER AND
PERFORM CORRESPONDING
AGREEMENTS, THIS ITEM IS FOR
DISCUSSION AND COUNSEL CENTRAL
STAFF WILL BE PRESENTING.
>> I AM SEEING THAT RIVERA IS
LEAVING THE COMMITTEE WHICH
MEANS WE WILL LOSE QUORUM IF
EITHER OF US LEAVE SO JUST
GIVING YOU ALL THAT WARNING.
THANK YOU FOR THAT. THANK YOU
FOR STAYING WITH US THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THIS COMMITTEE
MEETING, TODAY. AS EDNA IS
PULLING THIS UP, I WILL SHARE.
DO YOU HAVE SOMETHING?
>> NO, THANK YOU. SORRY ABOUT
HAVING TO LEAVE A FEW MINUTES
EARLY.
>> AS EDNA IS PULLING THIS UP, I
WILL USE MY FINAL COMMENTS.
COUNCILMAN KETTLE SHARE MAGNOLIA
AND WE ALSO SHARE LOVE FOR THE
GRUNGE MUSIC AND THE BAND TEMPLE
OF THE DOG AND TODAY, THE ALBUM
WAS RELEASED IN 1991. I WILL NOT
DO THE MATH TO SAY HOW MANY
YEARS BUT JUST TO SAY THAT SOME
THINGS NEVER GO STALE. WITH
THAT, OVER TO YOU, EDNA.
>> I AM WITH CENTRAL STAFF. I'VE
GOT SOME GOOD NEWS. SO LET'S
GET RIGHT INTO IT.
>> DUE TO THE TIME CONSTRAINTS,
I WILL HAVE ED TAKE US THROUGH
THIS ENTIRE PRESENTATION. YOU
CAN COME BACK PAGE BY PAGE TO
SEE HOW FAR WE CAN GO AND IF YOU
HAVE QUESTIONS BETWEEN NOW AND
THE NEXT MEETING BUT WILL YOU BE
WITH US AT THE NEXT MEETING? I
BELIEVE YOU WILL BE ON
WELL-DESERVED LEAVE .
>> I WILL BE ON MATERNITY LEAVE
AND TOM WILL BE PRESENTING MOST
LIKELY. MOST LIKELY. I KEEP
EXTENDING IT. THANK YOU. WE WILL
GET OUT IN TIME. SO COUNSEL BEL
120970 IS THAT MOST
COMPREHENSIVE GRANT BILL THAT
WAS JUST PITTED BY THE EXECUTIVE
IN 2025. AND THEN WE CAN EXPECT
TWO MORE OF THESE COMING IN THIS
YEAR AS WAS ESTABLISHED BY THAT
ORDINANCE. SO THIS BILL
AUTHORIZES CITY DEPARTMENTS TO
ACCEPT A TOTAL OF $4.7 MILLION
IN EXTERNAL FUNDING SOURCES. AND
IF YOU'RE WONDERING WHY THESE
NUMBERS ARE DIFFERENT, IT IS
BECAUSE SOME PROJECTS AND GRANT
EXPAND MULTIPLE YEARS. FOR
BUDGETING PURPOSES, WHILE THE
DEPARTMENT WANTS TO ACCEPT THE
FULL AMOUNT, THE ONLY
APPROPRIATE WHAT THEY NEED. AND
SO, OF THE TOTAL AMOUNTS , OTHER
TOTAL ACCEPTANCE AMOUNTS, OVER
HALF OF IT IS FUNDING FOR
TRANSPORTATION, THIS INCLUDES
$23.2 MILLION FROM THE FEDERAL
HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION. FOR A
NUMBER OF PROJECTS AND THAT
INCLUDES $8.2 MILLION FOR FUTURE
LIGHT RAIL STATION IN TRANSIT
QUARTER CONSTRUCTION. $5.5
MILLION FOR WESTLAKE LIGHT RAIL.
ACCESS IMPROVEMENTS, $5.8
MILLION FOR TRAFFIC SIGNALS AND
VISION ZERO AND $3.8 MILLION FOR
GRANT STREET, STATION AND NEW
BUS STOP AMENITIES DUE TO THE
LIGHT RAIL STOP THAT WAS ADDED
THERE. IN ADDITION TO CIP
RELATED GRANTS, THERE IS ALSO
14.8 DOLLARS OF OPERATING
GRANTS. THIS INCLUDES THREE
SEPARATE GRANTS TOTALING $3.7
MILLION. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
THE CONTINUANCE OF HUMAN
TRAFFICKING TASK FORCE AND
DEPLOY A CITYWIDE RISK
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM WHICH
LEVERAGES NATURAL PROCESSING AND
ADVANCED STATISTICAL MODELS IN
REAL-TIME. THIS DOES COME WITHIN
FTE TEMPORARY POSITION AS LONG
AS THE FUNDING REMAINS. THIS
POSITION WILL EXPIRE UNLESS NEW
FUNDING IS SECURED. I ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED A FEW MORE OF THESE
GRANTS IN THE MEMO . THAT IS
ATTACHED TO THE AGENDA AND ALL
OF THE GRANTS ARE DESCRIBED IN
REATTACHMENT A. AND SOME OF THE
GRANTS TO REQUIRE GRANT MANAGE
IN THE LAST COLUMN ON THE TABLE
IN THE MEMO PROVIDES THAT
INFORMATION. IT IS A TOTAL OF
$3.5 MILLION AND IT IS PRIMARILY
TIED TO THE F-STOP PROJECTS. SO,
IF THE COMMITTEE VOTES TO MAKE
THE RECOMMENDATION ON THIS
COUNSEL WILL ON MAY 7th, THE
MEETING THE LEGISLATION WILL BE
CONSIDERED FOR FINAL ACTION AT
THE FULL CITY COUNSEL MEETING ON
MAY 13 AND IF THERE ARE ANY
AMENDMENTS, THOSE ARE DUE BY
APRIL 30th TO TOM AND HE CAN
INCLUDE ME AS WELL.
>> VERY GOOD. THANK YOU.
COLLECTS, DO YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
ON THIS AND MAYBE WE WILL TAKE
YOU BACK TO THAT FIRST SLIDE? A
LOT OF THIS IS S. ANY THOUGHTS?
QUESTIONS? IT IS ALL VERY
STRAIGHTFORWARD TO ME AS I AM
LOOKING THROUGH THE ATTACHMENT
THAT LISTS EACH GRANT ONE BY
ONE. LET'S MOVE ON TO THE NEXT
SLIDE. JUST TO DOUBLE CHECK AND
SEE IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS?
COUNCILMAN RINK.
>> THIS FINAL BULLET ON ENERGY
EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT, THIS IS
FROM THE PROGRAM?
>> FROM PUGET SOUND ENERGY.
>> UNDERSTOOD, THANK YOU .
>> WE WILL HAVE THIS BACK BEFORE
THE NEXT COMMITTEE SO IF YOU
HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT ANY OF
THESE GRANTS, THE ACCEPTING OF
THEM THIS FIRST QUARTER OR THE
APPROPRIATIONS, JUST LET TOM
KNOW BECAUSE WE WILL GIVE ED A
BIG CONGRATULATIONS AND SEE YOU
IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS. WE ARE
LOOKING FORWARD TO YOU TAKING
THIS TIME WITH YOUR NEW FAMILY
MEMBER. COLLEAGUES , WE RELY ON
YOU SO MUCH. COLLECTS, IS THERE
ANY OTHER FURTHER BUSINESS TO
COME BEFORE THIS GRANT
ACCEPTANCE AND APPROPRIATION?
>> NO, I JUST WANT TO THANK YOU
FOR ALL THAT YOU DO AND ENJOY
YOUR WELL-EARNED PATERNITY
LEAVE. TAKE IT, DON'T DELAY IT
ANYMORE. YOU WILL NEVER GET BACK
THAT TIME AND AS A PROUD PARENT
OF THREE YOUNG KIDS, I TOOK
EVERY LAST BIT OF MY FRATERNITY
TIME AND WHEN I TRIED TO SPLIT
IT UP AND SPLIT IT OUT, FOR THE
BENEFIT OF MY EMPLOYER, IT IS
TIME YOU WILL NEVER GET BACK SO
GO AND ENJOY. I PROMISE YOU, THE
WORLD WILL KEEP ON SPENDING
DESPITE YOUR HEART CONTRIBUTIONS
BEING MISSED. WE WILL FIGURE IT
OUT. CONGRATULATIONS AND ENJOY .
ENJOY. THANK YOU .
>> WELL SAID, COUNCILMEMBER BOB
KETTLE .
>> REAL QUICK, I JUST WANT TO
THANK YOU FOR THE CENTRAL STAFF
MEMO ON THE TOPIC AND THAT IS
REALLY HELPFUL TO SEE THE
BREAKOUT AND WITH MY PUBLIC
SAFETY HAD ON, SEEING OAM AND
SPE AND THE LIKE AND IT IS A
GREAT SNAPSHOT SO I REALLY
APPRECIATE THE INSIGHT AND JUST
TO CLOSE AS A FATHER OF AN
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL-AGED DAUGHTER,
I ECHO ALL OF YOUR POINTS AND
ALSO WISH THE BEST OF LUCK AND
CONGRATULATIONS TO YOU.
>> WONDERFUL. WELL SAID. IF
THERE IS NO FURTHER BUSINESS,
THIS CONCLUDES THE APRIL 16th
2025 AND OUR NEXT IS WEDNESDAY,
MAY 7th, 2025. IS THERE ANY
FURTHER BUSINESS? HEARING NO
FURTHER